The State
of Fashion
2020
2
The State of Fashion 2020
The State
of Fashion
2020
4
The State of Fashion 2020
CONTENTS
Executive Summary 1011
Industry Outlook 1215
Global Economy 1831
01: On High Alert 19
02: Beyond China 23
Southeast Asia: A Region of Nuanced Opportunity 26
Russia: Signs of Resurgence in a Polarised Market 28
The GCC: A Region in Transition 30
Consumer Shifts 3259
03: Next Gen Social 33
Want to See the Future of Social Media? Look to Asia. 37
04: In The Neighbourhood 43
Executive Interview: Pete Nordstrom 46
Unlocking the Power of Stores 50
05: Sustainability First 52
The Future of Upcycling: From Rags to Riches 56
Fashion System 6087
06: Materials Revolution 61
Fashion’s Biological Revolution 64
07: Inclusive Culture 66
Executive Interview: Annie Wu 70
08: Cross-Border Challengers 73
Executive Interview: Wang Mingqiang 76
09: Unconventional Conventions 79
Executive Interview: Raaello Napoleone 82
10: Digital Recalibration 85
McKinsey Global Fashion Index 8899
Glossary and Detailed Infographics 100
End Notes 102
MGFI
GLOBAL
ECONOMY
CONSUMER
SHIFTS
FASHION
SYSTEM
6
The State of Fashion 2020
7
For the fourth year in a row, The Business
of Fashion and McKinsey & Company have teamed
up to bring our trademark rigour and evidence to
debates within the global fashion industry and
to provide an authoritative annual picture of The
State of Fashion. This is now a knowledge base that
we build on every year, identifying the key themes
and business imperatives shaping the industry
while tracking the ways in which fluctuations in
the world economy feed through into fashion.
And this coming year — perhaps more so
than any year since we started — will see fluctua-
tions in abundance. Our first report was written in
the aftermath of the Brexit vote and went to press
the morning after Donald Trump had been elected
president of the United States. The unfolding
implications of both of these events continue to
impact the fashion market.
The year ahead will open with the industry
in a state of high nervousness and uncertainty,
with most executives across fashion and the wider
business world bracing for a slowdown in growth
in the global economy. Because fashion is a global
business with global supply chains, industry
players are anxious about the impact of taris and
trade disputes. And in terms of digitisation and
sustainability, the fashion industry is still playing
catch-up as the challenges in these areas become
more complex. Facing these interlinked hurdles
means that not everyone can win. The battle for
resources and talent continues to make it ever
tougher for many mid-sized and smaller brands
to compete.
So how to navigate these choppy waters?
Once again our global experts bring clarity to a
fragmented landscape of categories and segments,
countries and companies by establishing a
common understanding of the forces at work
in fashion. This report sets out how well we are
performing and identifies the top priorities, both
business and creative, for 2020. Through BoF’s
extensive expertise in fashion strengthened by
global industry networks, we thread McKinsey’s
international perspective and analytical rigour.
We then bolster this with our survey of over 290
global fashion executives (more than ever before)
and interviews with thought leaders and pioneers.
The report also includes the fourth readout of
our industry benchmark, the McKinsey Global
Fashion Index (MGFI): its extensive database of
companies allows us to analyse and compare the
performance of individual companies against
their peers, by category, segment or region.
Four years in, this is growing to become an
unrivalled resource.
Yet, while the coming year brings with it a
lot of uncertainty, exciting opportunities remain
for those who can make sense of the noise and
drive innovation accordingly. Whatever your
interest in the industry — from silent investor to
concerned consumer — this report tells you all you
need to know about the state of fashion in 2020.
— Achim Berg & Imran Amed
FOREWORD
Thomas Lohr
8
The State of Fashion 2020
CONTRIBUTORS
ACHIM BERG
Based in Frankfurt, Achim
Berg leads McKinsey’s Global
Apparel, Fashion & Luxury
group and is active in all
relevant sectors including
clothing, textiles, footwear,
athletic wear, beauty,
accessories and retailers
spanning from the value end
to luxury. As a global fashion
industry and retail expert,
he supports clients on a broad
range of strategic and top
management topics, as well as
on operations and sourc-
ing-related issues.
IMRAN AMED
As founder, editor-in-chief
and chief executive of
The Business of Fashion,
Imran Amed is one of the
fashion industry’s leading
writers, thinkers and
commentators. Fascinated by
the industry’s potent blend
of creativity and business,
he began BoF as a blog in
2007, which has since grown
into the pre-eminent global
fashion industry resource
serving a five-million-strong
community from over 190
countries and territories.
Previously, he was a
consultant at McKinsey
in London.
SASKIA HEDRICH
As global senior expert
in McKinsey’s Apparel,
Fashion & Luxury group,
Saskia Hedrich works with
fashion companies around
the world on strategy,
sourcing optimisation,
merchandising transfor-
mation, and sustainability
topics — all topics she is also
publishing about regularly.
Additionally, she is involved
in developing strategies for
national garment industries
across Africa, Asia, and Latin
America.
FELIX RÖLKENS
Felix Rölkens is part of the
leadership of McKinsey’s
Apparel, Fashion & Luxury
group and works with
apparel, sportswear, and pure
play fashion e-commerce
companies in Europe and
North America, on a wide
range of topics including
strategy, operating model
and merchandising
transformations.
ANITA BALCHANDANI
Anita Balchandani is a
Partner in McKinsey’s
London oce, and leads the
Apparel, Fashion & Luxury
group in the United Kingdom.
Her expertise extends
across fashion, health and
beauty, specialty retail and
e-commerce. She focuses
on supporting clients in
developing their strategic
responses to the disruptions
shaping the retail industry
and in delivering customer
and brand-led growth
transformations.
ROBB YOUNG
As global markets editor of
The Business of Fashion,
Robb Young oversees content
from Asia-Pacific, the Middle
East, Latin America, Africa,
the CIS and Eastern Europe.
He is an expert on emerging
and frontier markets, whose
career as a fashion editor,
business journalist, author
and strategic consultant
has seen him lead industry
projects around the world.
SHRINA POOJARA
Shrina Poojara is a consultant
in McKinsey’s London oce,
specialising in Apparel,
Fashion and Luxury. She has
supported apparel and beauty
companies in the UK and
Europe, on topics including
strategy and mergers and
acquisitions.
9
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to thank all members of The Business of Fashion and the McKinsey community for their contribution to the
research and participation in our State of Fashion Survey, and the many industry experts who generously shared their perspectives
during interviews. In particular, we would like to thank: Alex Kremer, Alexander Taylor, Annie Wu, Arnold Ma, Christoph
Barchewitz, Elijah Whaley, Georoy van Raemdonck, Graeme Raeburn, Hiromi Yamaguchi, Kavin Bharti Mittal, Lidewij Edelkoort,
Michael Sadowski, Nina Marenzi, Pete Nordstrom, Pierre Poignant, Rafaello Napoleone, Sarah Needham, Simon Lock, Stefano
Martinetto, Wang Minqiang, Yash Mehta.
The wider BoF team has also played an instrumental role in creating this report — in particular Amanda Dargan, Anouk Vlahovic,
Casey Hall, Cheryl Wischhover, Christina Yao, Kate Vartan, Lauren Sherman, Mary Catherine Nanda, Michael Edelmann, Niamh
Coombes, Nick Blunden, Olivia Howland, Queennie Yang, Rachel Strugatz, Sarah del Corral, Sarah Kent, Venetia van Hoorn Alkema,
Victoria Berezhna, Vikram Alexei Kansara, Zoe Suen.
The authors would like to thank Marilena Schmich and Tiany Chan from McKinsey’s Berlin and Dallas oces respectively for
their critical roles in delivering this report. We also acknowledge the following McKinsey colleagues for their special contributions
to the report creation and in-depth articles: Aimee Kim, Alex Sukharevsky, Alexander Dobrakovsky, Ali Potia, Alice Zheng, Anneke
Maxi Pethö-Schramm, Dale Kim, Denis Emelyantsev, Gerry Hough, Karl-Hendrik Magnus, Laura Gallagher, Maliha Khan, Martins
Mellens, Matthias Evers, Michael Chui, Nitasha Walia, Patrick Guggenberger, Sergio Velasquez-Terjesen, Shani Wijetilaka, Simon
Wintels, Thirumagal B and Tyler Harris. We also appreciate the support we have received from other McKinsey colleagues across
the globe: Adhiraj Chand, Alastair Macaulay, Althea Peng, Andres Avila, Anita Liao, Ankita Das, Antonio Achille, Antonio Gonzalo,
Cherry Chen, Claire Gu, Colleen Baum, Colin Henry, Damian Hattingh, Daniel Zipser, Emily Gerstell, Ewa Sikora, Fernanda Hoefel,
Heloisa Callegaro, Holly Briedis, Jean-Baptiste Coumau, Jennifer Schmidt, Jihye Lee, Kanika Kalra, Kapil Joshi, Karsten Lafrenz,
Marie Strawczynski, Martine Drageset, Matthias Heinz, Nicola Montenegri, Oliver Ehrlich, Peter Stumpner, Raj Shah, Ray Liu,
Rebeca Vega, Sara Kappelmark, Sophie Marchessou, Susan Nolen Foushee, Thomas Tochtermann, Tom Skiles, Vorah Shin, and
Younghoon Kang. We’d also thank David Honigmann, David Wigan and Jonathan Turton for their editorial support, and Adriana
Clemens for external relations and communications.
In addition, the authors would like to thank Joanna Zawadzka for her creative input and direction into this State of Fashion report,
Ellen Rutt for the cover illustration and Getty Images for supplying imagery to bring the findings to life.
10
The State of Fashion 2020
Fashion leaders are not looking forward to
2020. The prevailing mood among respondents to
our executive survey is one of anxiety and concern.
In contrast to last year, when there were pockets
of optimism in North America and within the
luxury segment, we now see pessimism across all
geographies and price points. To make matters
more complicated, although we know that external
shocks will continue, we don’t know what form
they will take.
Even without the economic headwinds,
these would be challenging times. The McKinsey
Global Fashion Index (MGFI) forecasts that global
fashion industry growth will slow further — down
to 3 to 4 percent — slightly below predicted growth
for 2019. Fashion players are under pressure to be
digital-first and fully leverage new technologies,
to improve diversity across their assortments and
organisations and to address growing demand
for the industry to face the sustainability agenda
head-on.
Yet not all companies are created equal.
Polarisation persists and the “Super Winners” —
the top 20 players by economic profit — account
In Troubled Times,
Fortune Favours the
Big and the Bold
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
11
for more than the combined economic profit of the
entire industry. Not only are they highly value-cre-
ating and of immense scale, but they often pioneer
innovation in the industry through their product
ranges and interaction with consumers. They
are also best positioned to attract the industry’s
limited resources and talent, while others risk
getting left behind. A growing proportion of
publicly traded fashion companies are actually
“value destroyers” that rack-up negative economic
profit. In a “winner takes all” market, the implica-
tions for laggards are troubling.
Volatility is here to stay, so fashion
companies should take steps to become more
resilient, build a profound understanding of the
risks they face and consider strategic actions to
minimise them. Successful companies will be the
ones that make moves early, focus on boosting
earnings over revenue growth, and work out how to
improve productivity while ensuring operational
and financial flexibility. Crucially, all this will
require leaders who make quick decisions in an
environment of great uncertainty.
The good news is that for companies that do
display resilience and resolve, additional rewards
are there for the taking beyond 2020. While China
continues to present a lucrative opportunity
for many global and local fashion players, some
companies are at risk of becoming over-reliant on
the market. We see further potential to explore
markets beyond China, including India, Southeast
Asia, the Middle East and Russia.
To better address consumer themes next
year, fashion players should focus on clearly
understanding how to best use new social media
channels and functions, how to optimise their
store networks and experience, and how to best
deliver industry change toward greater sustain-
ability. Both R&D and innovation will play vital
roles in delivering short-term sustainability
targets and in reinventing fashion’s economic
model for longer term transformation. Consumers
and employees will continue to demand more from
purpose-driven companies that champion their
values — from climate change consciousness to
diversity and inclusion.
Nonetheless, threats remain for
incumbents across the industry who don’t
respond or adapt fast enough. Facilitated by
e-commerce marketplaces linking them direct
to global consumers, Asian players will intensify
their competition with western brands through
cross-border channels. Meanwhile, digital pure
players that pioneer new business models may
prove exciting as new paths to profitability emerge,
but other tech players will begin to falter. And as
industry-wide digitisation progresses, the need
for reinvention has even reached showrooms and
trade fairs.
While 2020 is not expected to be easy, it
will be significantly more challenging for some
companies than for others. Indeed, the year
ahead will require fashion companies to deliver
meaningful change across the value chain and on
multiple fronts while mitigating risk and managing
uncertainty. But, for the fortunate few, there will
also be opportunities to capture.
Executive Summary
Successful companies will
be the ones that make moves
early, focus on boosting earnings
over revenue growth, and work
out how to improve productivity
while ensuring operational and
inancial lexibility.
12
The State of Fashion 2020
The fashion industry faces a worrying year
ahead. The macroeconomic context is challenging,
and players will find that their route to value
creation is either unclear or it requires levels of
investment that are hard to swallow. Digitisation
remains critical, while players must address
increasing consumer concerns over sustainability,
if they want to secure their future.
Overall, the McKinsey Global Fashion
Index predicts that the fashion industry will
continue to grow at 3 to 4 percent in 2020, slightly
slower than the 3.5 to 4.5 percent estimate for
2019 (see Exhibit 19). This slowdown will stem
from consumers being increasingly cautious amid
broader macroeconomic uncertainty, political
upheaval across the globe and the continued threat
of trade wars. This year has already been tough,
and economic gains continue to flow to a select
small group of players, while the middle is increas-
ingly squeezed and the share of companies actively
destroying value grows.
In North America, consumer sentiment is
muted and taris — aided by the strengthening
dollar — are impacting both imports and exports.
Emerging Asia-Pacific markets are still relatively
strong although growth is slowing: retail sales
in the region have been falling short of expecta-
tions, and will continue to disappoint in 2020 as
consumer sentiment weakens. On the other side of
the world, mature Europe continues to suer from
the general global economic malaise and ongoing
uncertainty around Brexit. Growth in emerging
Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa
is expected to remain stable overall with some
brighter spots, such as Brazil and Nigeria — two of
the most populous nations in the world that have
rapidly expanding middle classes.
Naturally, this uncertainty is reflected in
our annual BoF-McKinsey senior executive survey.
Strikingly, only 9 percent of respondents think
conditions for the industry will improve next year,
compared to 49 percent who said the same last
year. “Challenging,” “uncertain” and “disruptive”
were the most frequently used words to describe
the industry compared to last year’s more
neutral “changing,” “digital” and “fast.” Another
divergence from previous years is that now
pessimism holds broadly true regardless of region
or segment, with more than half of respondents
The Glaring Gap Between
the Best and the Rest
The most optimistic region is
Asia, although, even here only 14
percent of executives expect an
improvement in conditions.
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
13
Exhibit 1:
The majority of fashion executives across value segments and geographies
foresee a slowdown in the industry in 2020
% OF FASHION EXECUTIVE RESPONDENTS, EXPECTATIONS FOR 2020 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS RELATIVE TO 2019
Exhibit 2:
The economic backdrop, the evolution of digital oerings and younger
consumers’ passion for causes are front of mind for executives
% OF RESPONDENTS THAT RATED EACH THEME AS ONE OF THE TOP THREE IMPACTING THEIR BUSINESS IN 2019
SOURCE: BOFMCKINSEY STATE OF FASHION 2020 SURVEY
SOURCE: BOFMCKINSEY STATE OF FASHION 2020 SURVEY
Premium/luxury
Mid-market
Value
North America
Europe
Asia
BY SEGMENT
BY GEOGRAPHY
Worse Same Better
57
58
58
31
39
38
12
3
4
61
55
59
30
38
27
9
7
14
Caution Ahead
Digital Landgrab
Getting Woke
Self-Disrupt
Now or Never
Trade 2.0
Radical Transparency
On Demand
End of Ownership
Indian Ascent
50
49
44
43
36
34
16
15
12
4
14
The State of Fashion 2020
in every region predicting a deteriorating
environment. The most optimistic region is Asia,
although, even here only 14 percent of executives
expect an improvement in conditions. And in
luxury, where performance has been strong, there
is still little hope of an upturn.
We also asked survey respondents three
questions to probe what was at the top of their
personal agenda: which of the themes predicted in
last year’s State of Fashion report were in the top
three impacting their business today; what do they
see as the biggest challenges facing the industry
going forwards; and what do they consider to be the
biggest opportunities for next year? Their answers
reveal some consistent themes.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, concern about
the global economy was both a key topic from last
year’s themes and ranked second and third in the
challenges facing the industry next year. Beyond
the economic context, the digitally-focused
themes “Digital Landgrab” and “Now Or Never”
both resonated most with global industry leaders
— there is no doubt that digital remains at the
forefront of executives’ minds. The word itself
was the fourth most popular to describe the
industry, while digitisation was listed as one of
the top three opportunities.
For the first time, sustainability topped the
list of the biggest challenges facing the industry,
and it was also named the biggest opportunity;
the rise of Extinction Rebellion and the demon-
strated ability of Greta Thunberg to mobilise
her generation make this ever-more relevant.
While the sustainability-related theme, “End of
Ownership,” was seen by our respondents overall
as less salient, we believe it may not yet have
reached critical mass and will continue to rise
in importance. Indeed, the theme is becoming
increasingly dynamic as fashion players at the
forefront experiment with opportunities to
prolong the lifespan of clothes — we expect more
to follow suit.
Last year we predicted a “unicorn” in this
space — in fact, Rent the Runway and StockX both
duly topped billion dollar valuations earlier this
year, joining The RealReal, which in turn went
public in 2019. The shift from a focus on generating
value for shareholders to companies becoming
purpose-led more broadly is reflected in the
importance attached in part to last year’s “Getting
Woke” theme, which suggested that consumer
demand for “wokewear” would have a major impact
on fashion players.
Alongside sustainability and digitisation,
the third major opportunity for the industry next
year, as cited by our survey respondents, was
innovation. No wonder then, given the investment
needed to meet these challenges, that small and
medium-sized players are particularly nervous
about what lies ahead. This is particularly acute in
luxury, where the world’s biggest groups continue
to increase their market share.
Our ten defining themes for 2020 are a
sharp evolution from previous years, with the
risks closer at hand and more severe. What is clear
is that setting a course through the turbulence
ahead, now more than ever, requires companies to
be attuned to their environment and agile in their
responses. While the winners at the top maintain
their industry dominance, the rest will have to
work even harder to keep pace.
What is clear is that setting a
course through the turbulence
ahead, now more than ever,
requires companies to be attuned
to their environment and agile in
their responses.
Industry Outlook
15
16
The State of Fashion 2020
01.
On High Alert
Continued caution
is advised for the
year ahead as
mounting underlying
turmoil could disrupt
relations among
both developed and
emerging market
economies. Indicators
of recession risk are
spurring companies
across industries
to build a resiliency
playbook and plan
for other macro risks
such as geopolitical
instability and the
inlammation of trade
tensions.
02.
Beyond China
China will continue
to provide exciting
opportunities and
play a leading role
in the global fashion
industry, but the
colossal market is
proving harder to
crack than brands
anticipated. As some
successful players
become over-reliant
on China and others
struggle, companies
should consider
spreading their risk
by expanding to
other high-growth
geographies.
04.
In the
Neighbourhood
Consumer demand
for convenience
and immediacy is
prompting retailers
to complement
existing brick-and-
mortar networks with
smaller format stores
that meet customers
wherever they are and
reduce friction in the
customer journey.
The winning formula
will feature in-store
experiences and
localised assortments
in neighbourhoods
and suburbs beyond
the main shopping
thoroughfares.
03.
Next Gen
Social
As traditional
engagement
models struggle on
established social
media platforms,
fashion players will
need to rethink their
strategy and ind
ways to maximise
their return on
marketing spend.
Attention-grabbing
content will be key,
deployed on the
right platform for
each market, using
persuasive calls-to-
action and, wherever
possible, a seamless
link to checkout.
05.
Sustainability
First
The global fashion
industry is extremely
energy-consuming,
polluting and wasteful.
Despite some modest
progress, fashion
hasn’t yet taken
its environmental
responsibilities
seriously enough.
Next year, fashion
players need to
swap platitudes and
promotional noise for
meaningful action and
regulatory compliance
while facing up to
consumer demand
for transformational
change.
GLOBAL ECONOMY
The percentage of
survey respondents that
expect global economic
conditions to improve in
the next year has fallen
from 49 percent for 2019
to 9 percent for 2020
More than half of fashion
executives believe a
“localised brick-and-
mortar-experience” will
be a top theme in the
coming year
More than two-thirds of
fashion players believe
“increased exploration
of spend on new media
platforms vs. ‘traditional’
platforms” will be a top
theme in the coming year
The population of
consumers aged 30 or
below in ive identiied
exciting markets
outside of China will
grow to be more than
double that of China
by 2025
Survey respondents
stated that “sustainability”
will be both the single
biggest challenge
and the single biggest
opportunity for the
industry in 2020
55%
The State of Fashion 2020
CONSUMER SHIFTS
49
2019 2020 2025 Forecast
9
2.3x
70
%
17
The State of Fashion 2020
08.
Cross-Border
Challengers
Established fashion
brands and retailers
will face growing
competition from new
Asian challengers,
as manufacturers
and SMEs step out of
their traditional roles
and sell directly to
global consumers.
Expect greater
competition from
hitherto unknown
players in the Asian
supply chain who
design popular items
to sell at aordable
prices using cross-
border e-commerce
platforms.
09.
Unconventional
Conventions
Traditional trade
shows must respond
to the increase of
direct-to-consumer
activity, shorter fashion
cycles and digitisation
by embracing new
roles and ine-tuning
their target audience.
In a bid to dierentiate
themselves — or even
just to survive — more
of these events will
add B2C attractions or
launch new services
and experiences to
improve relationships
with their traditional
B2B audience.
10.
Digital
Recalibration
Valuations of digital
fashion players have
reached dizzying
levels and, despite a
slew of high-proile
IPOs and private
irms achieving
unicorn status,
investor sentiment
is taking a turn for
the worse. Investor
apprehension is
growing over the
path to proitability
for some digital
players, from online
pure play retailers
and marketplaces,
to direct-to-consumer
brands and other
digital-irst business
models.
06.
Materials
Revolution
Fashion brands are
exploring alternatives
to today’s standard
materials, with key
players focused on
more sustainable
substitutes that
include recently
rediscovered and
re-engineered
old favourites as
well as high-tech
materials that deliver
on aesthetics and
function. We expect
R&D to increasingly
focus on materials
science for new
ibres, textiles,
inishes and other
material innovations
to be used at scale.
07.
Inclusive
Culture
Consumers and
employees are putting
increasing pressure
on fashion companies
to become proactive
advocates of diversity
and inclusion.
More companies
will elevate diversity
and inclusion as
a higher priority,
embed it across
the organisation
and hire dedicated
leadership roles, but
companies’ initiatives
will also come under
increasing scrutiny
in terms of sincerity
and results.
Across fashion
companies there
are seven male chief
executives for every one
female chief executive
The percentage of
respondents that
think using innovative
sustainable materials
is important for their
company
The average fashion-
tech IPO of the past two
years has seen a 27%
decrease in its stock
price since going public
The trade show of the
future will need to be
highly digital, rethink its
target audience and bring
fresh trends and ideas
from the industry to the
forefront
Year-on-year growth in
APAC cross-border B2C
e-commerce transaction
value is 37 percent
-27%
FASHION SYSTEM
37%
67%
18
The State of Fashion 2020
GLOBAL
ECONOMY
19
01. ON HIGH ALERT
Continued caution is advised for the year ahead as
mounting underlying turmoil could disrupt relations
among both developed and emerging market economies.
Indicators of recession risk are spurring companies
across industries to build a resiliency playbook and to
plan for other macro risks such as geopolitical instability
and the inlammation of trade tensions.
The global economy is under pressure, with
political and geopolitical instability complicating
the outlook for the global fashion industry in 2020.
But this uncertainty is not limited to fashion.
Executives from across industries are increas-
ingly pessimistic, and central banks around the
world are taking action and loosening monetary
policy. Against this gloomy backdrop, the fashion
industry is already facing major challenges,
from sustainability issues to generational shifts,
many of which require investment at a time when
top-line revenues are potentially under threat.
In 2020, fashion players will need to ensure they
are suitably resilient — driving productivity gains
while creating operational flexibility, digitising
where most appropriate, divesting non-core assets
to free up cash, and carefully monitoring and
managing a wide range of risks.
Last year, we reported on the deteriorating
outlook for the global economy. Since then, the
situation has only worsened. No surprise then that
55 percent of respondents in the BoF-McKinsey
annual executive survey expect conditions for the
industry to worsen in the next year, up consid-
erably from 42 percent last year. And of those
55 percent, half expect conditions to be “much”
worse, compared to just a handful of respondents
last year.
Trade tensions and Brexit continue to
create significant uncertainty and are having a
quantifiable impact on growth. The US-China
trade war has led to billions of dollars of taris
being imposed on imported goods between the two
countries, with knock on implications around the
globe. The IMF stated in July that reducing trade
tensions and resolving uncertainty around trade
agreements is a vital part of putting global growth
on a stronger footing.
1
The overall numbers are bleak. The WTO
more than halved its global trade volume growth
forecast for 2019 to 1.2 percent and warned that
the 2.7 percent growth it predicts for 2020
is still dependent on a return to “more normal
trade relations.”
2
Every region faces challenges. In Europe,
the UK service sector contracted in September,
while the annualised output of the German
economy was the lowest in six years. Meanwhile,
Chinese GDP growth slowed to 6 percent in the
55 percent of respondents in the
BoFMcKinsey annual executive
survey expect conditions for the
industry to worsen in the next year.
20
The State of Fashion 2020
Global Economy
third quarter of this year, and September’s export
figures were 3.2 percent lower than a year earlier,
and nearly 22 percent lower to the US.
3
In the US, service-sector growth hit a
three-year low at the start of October and for
the first time since the financial crisis, yields on
short-term US bonds eclipsed long-term bond
yields in August, a closely followed recession
indicator, which suggested investors were
scrambling for safer assets.
Japan’s exports have been falling every
month since the start of the year, Brazil’s
government halved its growth forecast for 2019
to just 0.8 percent in July, and India’s economy is
growing at its slowest pace in the past six years.
Faced with this synchronised global
downturn, central banks from the US to Australia
are cutting interest rates, and the European
Central Bank announced its biggest stimulus
package in three years. In China, the People’s
Bank cut its reserve requirement ratio (the amount
cash lenders must retain on their balance sheets)
for the third time this year in an attempt to
stimulate growth.
Business leaders are understandably wary.
In just six months, the number of executives who
think the global economy will shrink has risen
from less than half to over two-thirds. Three-
quarters think global economic conditions are
worse than six months ago and three-quarters
rank trade conflicts as one of the biggest risks to
global economic growth over the next year.
4
These concerns are already aecting
business decisions. In October, WTO Director-
General Roberto Azevêdo said, “Trade conflicts
heighten uncertainty, which is leading some
businesses to delay… productivity-enhancing
investments.”
5
In the UK, Bank of England
research showed that uncertainty over leaving the
EU has reduced capital spending on average by
about 11 percent,
6
while the number of companies
including Brexit warnings in their annual report
has more than doubled in the past six months.
7
Political upheavals in regions from Asia to
Latin America are adding to the uncertainty and
pessimism. The long-running protests in Hong
Kong have had a significant impact on the economy,
with Greater China retail sales significantly
missing estimates and tourism from mainland
China down 42 percent. Elsewhere, tensions in the
Middle East and attacks on oil plants are aecting
oil prices, which can have a major ripple eect
around the world.
The fashion industry must tackle these
existential challenges at a time when it faces
significant internal issues of its own. The drive for
sustainability is pushing many to rethink business
models and move towards more responsible
business practices. Customers’ demand for new and
enhanced services is driving brands and retailers
to invest heavily to meet these needs even at a time
when more than half of fashion executives feel they
do not suciently understand Generation Z — now
the largest global customer cohort.
The strain is starting to show. In
September, vacancies in US shopping malls hit
an eight-year high, with Sears, Victoria’s Secret
and Charlotte Russe among the household names
shutting outlets across the country. In the same
month, Forever 21 joined a growing list of brick-
and-mortar players who have filed for bankruptcy
across dierent markets including Debenhams,
the US arms of Roberto Cavalli and Diesel, and
department store Barneys New York. Retail is
the only sector in the US that has seen net job
Japan’s exports have been falling
every month since the start of the
year, Brazil’s government halved
its growth forecast for 2019 to
just 0.8 percent in July, and India’s
economy is growing at its slowest
pace in the past six years.
21
losses over the past two years, while in the UK,
high street store closures are the highest since
monitoring began in 2010.
8
In Europe, Moody’s
expects more than 40 percent of the retailers it
rates to record lower profits in 2019 than in either
of the previous two years.
9
Even in China, clothing
sales fell in April for the first time since 2009.
10
Given the worrying outlook we expect
fashion companies to take steps to become more
resilient in 2020. The first step is to develop a deep
understanding of the risks they face. These can
be codified in a “risk register” that dierentiates
between day-to-day risks, external disruptions
(e.g., supply-chain interruptions, trade disputes),
and disruptive strategic risks (e.g., remaining
relevant amid changing consumer preferences or
competing with challengers using new business
models). Both the impact, likelihood and prioriti-
sation of these risks will vary over time, so the risk
register needs to be a dynamic document.
There are also lessons to be learned from
previous economic crises. McKinsey’s analysis of
companies that outperformed their peers during
the last downturn showed that they made moves
early and focused on earnings over revenue. By the
time the downturn reached its 2009 trough, the
EBITDA of these resilient players had risen by 10
percent, while their industry peers had lost nearly
15 percent.
11
Throughout the year ahead, fashion
companies should remain on high alert. The most
forward-thinking players will therefore also
develop a resilience playbook to ensure they are
prepared. This is likely to involve plans to boost
productivity while ensuring operational flexibility
(e.g., using variable contracts and more diverse
supply sources), a clear approach to digitisation
and a sharp focus on financial flexibility. This
means divesting non-core and under-performing
assets early so that the company has the cash on
hand to make strategic investments as soon as the
economic outlook improves — when their peers
might be shedding assets. Crucially, all this will
require enhanced leadership to be able to make
quick decisions amid a high degree of uncertainty.
Throughout the year ahead,
fashion companies should remain
on high alert. The most forward-
thinking players will therefore
develop a resilience playbook to
ensure they are prepared.
01. On High Alert
Exhibit 3:
Executives are becoming
increasingly pessimistic about
global economic growth
GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH EXPECTATIONS FOR THE
NEXT SIX MONTHS, % OF EXECUTIVE RESPONDENTS
1
SEP 2018 MAR 2019 SEP 2019
1
RESPONDENTS WHO ANSWERED “DON’T KNOW” WERE REMOVED FROM
SAMPLE. TOTALS MAY NOT ADD TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING
SOURCE: ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SNAPSHOT, SEPTEMBER 2019, MCKINSEY
GLOBAL SURVEY RESULTS
Increase
No change
Contract
39
44
67
44
34
15
16
21
17
22
The State of Fashion 2020
23
Fashion brands have long targeted China
as an outstanding growth opportunity. And rightly
so. Over the past 10 years, China accounted for 38
percent of global fashion industry growth across
segments.
12
Since 2012 it has been responsible
for an impressive 70 percent of expansion in the
luxury segment, and we expect this dominance to
continue out to 2025.
Indeed, some brands have been very
successful in China. Luxury players such as LVMH
and Gucci have already been in the market for
years, having first opened stores in the 1990s.
13
Both continue to see positive results; LVMH
saw “unheard of growth rates” in 2019, while
in February, Kering defied market concerns of
a China slowdown in luxury, with Jean-Marc
Duplaix, the group’s financial director, high-
lighting the “dynamic” sales from their Chinese
clientele.
14 15
Other international brands also
continue to perform well — Lululemon grew
China revenues by 68 percent in the second
quarter of 2019, while Nike and Uniqlo reported
strong demand.
16
Mass-market players have also
prioritised China as a core part of their business
models; China now accounts for 5 percent of
H&M’s global revenues,
17
while Inditex has over
600 stores across the country, making up over
8 percent of its store network.
18
Still, not everyone has been so successful.
Asos and New Look are recent examples among
those to have retreated. Dolce & Gabbana and
Burberry are among players that have been in
the press due to advertising campaigns that
mismatched the sentiment of Chinese consumers.
Some international mass-market brands
have struggled to compete against established
Chinese brick-and-mortar players, some of which
have thousands of outlets. Physical retail still
plays an important role — 85 percent of shoppers
engage with both online and oine touchpoints,
compared with 80 percent in 2017.
19
Local Chinese
high-street brands such as Urban Revivo and
Peacebird have been growing at pace in the region,
ramping up competition for foreign brands.
The bottom line? The path to success
in China can be elusive. Nonetheless, despite a
slowdown of economic growth, the ocial growth
forecast of 6 percent to 6.5 percent for 2019 is still
02. BEYOND CHINA
China will continue to provide exciting opportunities and
play a leading role in the global fashion industry, but the
colossal market is proving harder to crack than brands
anticipated. As some successful players become over-
reliant on China and others struggle, companies should
consider spreading their risk by expanding to other high-
growth geographies.
A pedestrian at the Trang Tien Plaza luxury shopping centre in Hanoi, Vietnam. Maika Elan/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Physical retail still plays an
important role — 85 percent of
shoppers engage with both online
and oline touchpoints, compared
with 80 percent in 2017.
24
The State of Fashion 2020
among the highest of major global economies, and
the region this year (2019) overtook the US as the
largest fashion market in the world.
20
Consumer-
driven consumption is still fast growing, in
a country that adds absolute gross domestic
product (GDP) equivalent to that of the entirety of
Australia to its economy each year. Furthermore,
as incomes rise, Chinese consumers show a strong
propensity to trade up, which on the whole is good
news for upmarket foreign brands. Yet, winning in
China cannot be the sole focus, and it makes sense
for brands to direct at least some of their attention
toward other smaller, yet high growth markets.
India continues to present an exciting
opportunity, as we highlighted in last year’s
report (“Indian Ascent”), particularly for price
competitive players. While GDP growth this year
has been somewhat weaker than expected, in
part due to regulatory uncertainty, India is still
projected to be the fastest-growing major economy,
according to the IMF.
21
The Indian clothing market
will be worth $53.7 billion in 2020, making it the
sixth largest globally.
22
Notwithstanding the market’s challenges,
international players from H&M to Adidas are
engaging with India enthusiastically.
23
Internet
retailing accounted for nearly 11 percent of the
apparel market in 2018, double the proportion
just three years prior, driven in part by increasing
internet and smartphone penetration.
24
25
In fact,
India saw the strongest absolute growth globally
in the number of internet users in the past year.
26
Social media use is expanding at around 25 percent
annually, with nearly 70 percent of users active
on Instagram. This is providing a platform to
introduce consumers to fashion brands away from
the dominant informal market.
Southeast Asia also provides significant
opportunities; at nearly 270 million people,
Indonesia is the fourth largest country in the world
by population.
27
Vietnam and the Philippines are
seeing rapid GDP growth. Across Southeast Asia,
the median age is just 29, against 37 in China, high-
lighting the potential for growth as large numbers
of young people enter the workforce each year.
28
As in China, demand is being driven by digitally
native consumers, excited by the possibility of
creativity and self-expression. It is worth high-
lighting that these countries are highly diverse;
some consumers in the Philippines have a high
anity for western fashion trends, while Indonesia
is due to be the largest modest fashion market in
the world. Given the wide spectrum of taste within
each country and the dierences in regulation
between countries, each of these markets alone can
lend themselves as part of a considered expansion
strategy for success at scale. Equally, brands can
explore a regional approach to establish a toehold
and gain from the regional economy of scale.
Russia is an interesting proposition;
distracted by headlines about geopolitics in recent
years, the country’s fashion sector has remained
largely ignored by international fashion media.
Yet Russia’s clothing market is worth close to
$30 billion annually and is the ninth largest in
the world, according to data from McKinsey
FashionScope. Despite recent economic slowdown
in the country, the luxury market is showing new
signs of stabilisation. In 2018, LVMH, Dior and
Tiany all reported the highest sales in the region
since 2014.
29
An increasingly budget-conscious
middle class is creating new opportunities for
price competitive players. Russians have embraced
e-commerce too, which grew at an impressive 26
percent year-on-year in the first half of 2019.
30
The attractiveness of the country is also being
boosted by growing numbers of Chinese tourists,
who are expected to spend US $1.1 billion in Russia
in 2019.
31
Elsewhere, Brazil has been overlooked by
many in recent years, amid see-sawing economic
growth in the world’s sixth most populous
Global Economy
Indonesia is due to be the largest
modest fashion market in the world.
25
country.
32
Still, McKinsey’s 2019 Global Sentiment
Survey highlights increased confidence among
Brazilian consumers. Taris are a challenge
— Brazil has 23.3 percent taris for textiles,
according to the World Trade Organisation, but
there are still opportunities.
33
“More and more
international brands are looking to enter Brazil,”
says Christoph Barchewitz, co-chief executive of
emerging markets e-commerce platform Global
Fashion Group, which operates the Latin American
fashion e-commerce site Dafiti. “We recently
supported Ralph Lauren and Banana Republic
launching [digitally] into the market, and are
speaking to others.”
Finally, the Middle East still has potential,
despite being an already well-established fashion
market with a strong mall culture. While the Gulf
countries are far smaller than China in terms of
population size, the propensity of its shoppers to
spend big is what gives the region an outsized role
among international markets. In fact, the average
consumer in the UAE and Saudi Arabia respec-
tively spends over 6 times and 2 times as much
on fashion as the average consumer in China.
34
Some 99 percent of the UAE population uses social
media, underscoring the presence of a connected,
aspirational population craving style inspiration
and global fashion. The model in the Middle
East is dierent given historical restrictions on
foreign ownership: international fashion players
habitually partner with established and tried-and-
tested local players, the likes of whom have worked
with brands from Louis Vuitton to H&M for years.
These include Alshaya, Al Tayer and Chalhoub.
One largely untapped opportunity for overseas
brands to explore is how to better serve the region
in terms of e-commerce, given many franchisees
don’t own brands’ digital rights.
As fashion players continue to find the right
formula for China, other international markets
provide a rich seam of potential. That’s not to say
that China’s fashion market is nearing saturation.
Far from it. In 2020 we expect to see many
companies continuing to seize opportunities and
grapple with complexities there. Those that get it
right will prosper. But successful players
and struggling players alike will do well to
remember there are also opportunities elsewhere.
As fashion players put themselves to test in these
growth markets, they will have to strengthen their
brands and upgrade their operations to be able to
create value.
02. Beyond China
Exhibit 4:
There is a large market of young
consumers “Beyond China,” more
than double the size of that in China
POPULATION AGED 30 OR BELOW, MILLIONS
2025 FORECAST
CHINA
517
1,208
“BEYOND CHINA”
SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS, POPULATION DIVISION, WORLD POPULATION
PROSPECTS 2019
UAE & Saudi Arabia
Russia
Southeast Asia
Brazil India
2.3X
26
The State of Fashion 2020
Although luxury players continue to
expand or operate in most of the largest cities
in this diverse and dynamic region, there are
other opportunities for fashion players beyond
those serving the auent of Southeast Asia. An
emerging middle class experiencing rising levels
of disposable income is developing a taste for
fashion brands away from the informal market and
it is this demographic that is set to drive growth
in the region’s $50 billion apparel sector across
the six core markets — Vietnam, the Philippines,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore.
35
These markets are vibrant, increasingly
driven by young digitally sophisticated consumers.
Some 40 percent of the population is under the
age of 25, compared with 28 percent in China and
30 percent in the US.
36
Internet penetration is 63
percent, compared with 57 percent in China, and
social media use is growing fast; the number of
social media users in the region grew from 360
million to 402 million in just a year.
37
With young people spending increasing
amounts of time online, e-commerce is also
growing, albeit from a relatively low base. Within
the fashion sector, just 6 percent of 2018 retail
spend in the region was via e-commerce, as
opposed to China’s near-32 percent.
38
Still, the
three largest e-commerce players in the region
— Lazada, Shopee and Tokopedia — together saw
their gross merchandise value multiply seven
times between 2015 and 2018.
39
These players
boast international brands from Adidas and
Levi’s, to The Body Shop and Maybelline, echoing
Taobao’s path in China.
While there are similarities across these
Southeast Asian markets that sit within the
ASEAN trade bloc and thus operate on principles
of intra-regional free trade, there are also
significant dierences, in part due to regulation
and local tastes. Vietnam, for example, recently
signed a new trade agreement (EVFTA) with the
EU and boasts the highest levels of foreign direct
investment in the region. Thailand is encouraging
foreign investment with tax breaks, aiming to take
advantage of the recent trade tensions between
Southeast Asia: A Region
of Nuanced Opportunity
The combined population of Southeast Asia is greater than that of the US.
This exciting region, with a fast-growing apparel market, young consumer
base and rapidly expanding e-commerce, presents a real opportunity for
fashion players. While consumers in the region have enough in common
to suggest that brands can develop a regional strategy that will produce
results, there are also notable dierences between countries, implying a
tailored approach is required for success at scale.
by Aimee Kim, Ali Potia and Simon Wintels
In-Depth
26
Some 40 percent of the population
is under the age of 25, compared
with 28 percent in China and 30
percent in the US.
27
China and the US. On the other hand, regulatory
diculties do exist, with the Philippines, Thailand
and Indonesia requiring by law for foreign entrants
to enter through local partners unless they put
down substantial capital investments. Meanwhile
counterfeit fashion is prevalent, particularly in
Indonesia where copyright laws, or lack thereof,
remain a sizeable concern.
When it comes to e-commerce, some
countries are ahead of others. Singapore is a more
mature and slower growing e-commerce market,
yet brick-and-mortar remain important for
apparel retail and account for 91 percent of sales.
40
Digital payments are popular in Singapore and
Malaysia, but less so in Indonesia and Vietnam,
where a culture of cash-on-delivery continues
to dominate.
Tastes in fashion vary between countries;
Filipinos have a high anity with western
brands, are seeing a significant shift away from
the “tiangge” culture of flea markets and bazaars
towards international fast fashion brands, and
are also partaking in the explosion of athleisure,
while Thai consumers demonstrate curiosity for
brands from both Europe and other Asian nations
like Japan and Korea. Both Indonesia and Malaysia
meanwhile, are predominantly Muslim countries
and have their own distinct narratives in terms of
modest fashion trends.
For international brands entering
Southeast Asia, the challenge is both simple and
complex. On one hand, for players that are trying
to establish a toehold in the market, there is clearly
great potential to roll out across the region, as
free trade operates within the bloc and certain
demographics share similar tastes across the
countries in the region. On the other, for success at
scale, fashion players need to retain the flexibility
to cater to local needs. That may mean being
prepared to take tough decisions on where they
are most likely to find traction and establishing a
tailored strategy for each country.
The authors of this article work within McKinsey and Company’s Apparel,
Fashion and Luxury group, serving a range of clients across Southeast Asia.
02. Beyond China
For success at scale, fashion
players need to retain the lexibility
to cater to local needs. That may
mean being prepared to take
tough decisions on where they
are most likely to ind traction and
establishing a tailored strategy for
each country.
27
A model showcases designs on the runway during Jakarta Fashion Week.
Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images
28
The State of Fashion 2020
28
In-Depth
Russia: Signs of Resurgence
in a Polarised Market
Slower economic growth provides a challenging backdrop for the Russian
fashion sector, but players have seen success supporting price-conscious
consumers, as well as high-spending tourists lured in by attractive prices
and visitor-friendly policies. Since online channels are ultimately winning
market share and new platforms continue to emerge in this highly
dynamic space, a strong digital presence can be a route to success.
by Alex Sukharevsky, Denis Emelyantsev, Karl-Hendrik Magnus and Patrick Guggenberger
Although Russia — the world’s ninth largest
apparel market — has started to show some signs
of recovery, the economic slowdown that began
in 2014 has significantly dampened spending and
consumer confidence, which remains firmly in
negative territory.
41
Last year’s VAT increases
coupled with five consecutive years of stagnating
real incomes have added to the burden. But even in
this challenging environment, there are opportu-
nities for fashion players in certain categories.
Players who can compete on price represent
one opportunity to appeal to consumers that
continue to move down the price ladder, while
those catering to the luxury market — especially
foreign tourists — are another. The third lies
in e-commerce, a sector that continues to grow
rapidly and is seeing a great deal of change.
In 2019, Russia’s budget-conscious fashion
consumers are increasingly looking for value
for money: 57 percent often shop around to get
the best deals on their preferred labels. Less
expensive retailers that can simultaneously deliver
“fashionable” clothing are benefiting; internation-
al players such as H&M and Zara have long had a
presence in Russia and continue to open stores.
Domestic retailers such as Gloria Jeans, Detskyi
Mir, Tvoe and Melon Fashion Group are also
seizing the opportunity. Sales at Tvoe, for example,
have shot up by 161 percent since the beginning
of 2019, while Melon Fashion Group has outlined
24 percent growth plans, driven by new store
openings, relocations and the expansion of existing
sites along with an increase in online sales.
At the other end of the spectrum, several
luxury brands saw their highest revenue in at least
four years in 2018, including Chanel, Dior, Tiany
& Co and Bulgari.
42
Russia’s luxury consumers
have been spending more at home, while the depre-
ciating rouble has made Russia more attractive for
fashion-seeking tourists, particularly from China.
Chinese tourists were up almost 25 percent in the
first half of 2019 from the previous year and collec-
tively, are expected to spend more than $1.1 billion
in total this year.
43
The Russian government has
also introduced a series of targeted policies, from
VAT refunds to relaxed visa requirements.
The depreciating rouble has
made Russia more attractive
for fashion-seeking tourists,
particularly from China.
2929
02. Beyond China
Luxury retailers have moved to ensure
their prices are competitive with those in Europe;
in 2015, Tsum became the first retailer in Russia
to actively move towards matching prices in Milan
and Paris. It also oered Chinese-speaking sales
sta and Chinese language in-store signage and
in 2018, became the first major Russian retailer
to accept WeChat Pay, making transactions even
easier for Chinese customers.
The third opportunity in Russia stems from
the strong growth and dynamism of e-commerce.
Internet penetration in Russia is high and Russians
spend an average of 6.5 hours a day on the internet.
In 2018, online sales accounted for more than 10
percent of all apparel sales in the market, which
represents double the 5 percent share seen just
five years prior.
44
Online marketplaces capture
the lion’s share of online apparel sales and are
expected to continue growing.
Multi-national companies like Alibaba’s
AliExpress and Global Fashion Group’s Lamoda
have done well, together with local players like
Wildberries; in August, Wildberries.ru became
Russia’s largest clothing retailer, having grown
revenue 79 percent year-on-year for the first six
months of 2019. Other platforms by major groups
like Sberbank-Yandex and USM have started
to emerge, including the recently announced
AliExpress Russia joint-venture — a tie-up
between Russian internet giant Mail.ru, Russian
telecom Megafon and China’s Alibaba, with
support from Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.
These areas of growth suggest that oppor-
tunities do exist in the region, both for luxury
brands and for players who are price competitive.
Delivering great value apparel with a high degree
of fashionability will be an increasingly winning
formula for many. Promotions are dominant;
international players should explore pricing
levers, either at a mass-level or by taking a more
personalised approach through customer value
maximisation (CVM). Luxury incumbents
should further focus on building loyalty with core
consumers as well as millennials to drive growth,
in part through understanding the increasing
importance of online as an information channel
for consumers and, as such, developing their digital
oering through online stores or partnering with
online multi-brands.
Players who wish to enter Russia should
think about their options. Foreign brands
may want to start with a digital presence that
introduces them to consumers before launching
a physical presence, focusing on Moscow and
St. Petersburg, which hold the lion’s share of value
in a logistically-challenging country that spans
11 time zones. Some players might instead choose
to partner with a fast-growing local player, either
a multi-brand brick-and-mortar retailer, or an
online-only company. Brands may do well to build
a local presence as part of a much larger strategy
to serve the new generation of digitally connected
and “global” Russian fashion consumers, with
fewer language and information barriers than
ever before.
The authors of this article work within McKinsey and Company’s Apparel,
Fashion and Luxury group, serving a range of clients across Russia.
In 2018, online sales accounted
for more than 10 percent of all
apparel sales in the market, which
represents double the 5 percent
share seen just ive years prior.
30
The State of Fashion 2020
Annual fashion sales in the Middle East’s
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets amount
to $50 billion, reflecting the region’s significant
financial clout. Spending in some GCC countries
is among the highest on a per capita basis globally,
reaching approximately $500 and $1,600 per person
in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
(UAE) respectively.
45
Dubai is the region’s shopping
capital, but other markets are maturing fast, with
Saudi Arabia taking a place at the top table.
However, economic cycles in the GCC
countries are closely tied to global commodity
prices which brings challenges to the current
climate. Oil prices are around 35 percent lower
than they were in 2010-2014 — and economic
growth is slowing. Meanwhile, lower rents are
being oset by rising labour costs, including new
visa and administrative fees, and reduced energy
subsidies. Geopolitical events in the region pose a
challenge too. The last few years saw a notable rise
in business closures especially in the wholesale
and retail sectors.
Despite its complications, the GCC presents
significant opportunities for fashion players, many
of which have operated successfully there for
years. Dubai will continue to play an important
role as the region’s window to the fashion world,
supported by world-class malls oering a top-end
customer experience. Tourism will continue to
be an important revenue driver; the city’s Expo
2020 is billed as the “World’s Greatest Show,”
a glittering coming together of technology, art,
food and creativity that is expected to attract at
least 25 million visitors.
Elsewhere, the fashion market in Saudi
Arabia is going through some dynamic shifts.
The kingdom is the biggest and most populous
country in the region and is investing heavily in
building a thriving cultural scene to attract locals
and visitors alike. Mega-infrastructure products
include Diriyah Gate, a 7.1-million-square-
metre development, and The Red Sea Project,
In-Depth
The GCC: A Region in Transition
When it comes to shopping, Middle Eastern consumers are experienced
and increasingly savvy. Retail is a favourite cultural pastime, and
informed consumers can’t get enough of luxury items, in-store
experiences and the latest fashions. That said, the Gulf Cooperation
Council markets are changing, amid shifting economic currents and the
rise of digital. For brands this implies risks, but also opportunities.
by Nitasha Walia, Ahmed Youssef, Abdellah Iftahy and Martins Mellens
Spending in some countries
is among the highest on a per
capita basis globally, reaching
approximately $500 and $1,600
per person in Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates respectively.
31
comprising of 14 luxury and hyper-luxury hotels.
Attractions such as the Diriyah E-Prix will see
Formula E racing (electric cars) on the streets of
Riyadh. Winter at Tantora is a new music and arts
festival founded in 2018, combining concerts and
exhibitions with desert vistas, balloon flights and
horse races. Women are now playing an increas-
ingly active and important role in the workforce.
Indeed, the recent relaxation of rules on women’s
dress have the potential to disrupt how women,
both local and foreigners, consume fashion in
Saudi Arabia. These developments should also
encourage more local spending. Currently over
50 percent of Saudi spend on leisure and entertain-
ment is outside the kingdom, with categories like
luxury nearing 70 percent.
Middle Eastern consumers as a whole are
also becoming increasingly connected. Internet
penetration in the UAE and Saudi Arabia is at 99
and 89 percent respectively, compared to just 57
percent in China.
46
E-commerce, therefore, is fast
becoming a table stake in the region. It is set to
grow at around 40 percent a year over the next five
years, increasing its penetration to 9 percent from
the current 2; in some fashion categories in Saudi,
it is already at 20 percent. Internet platforms
are thriving, and international digital players
including Yoox Net-a-Porter, Farfetch, Jollychic
and Amazon are wooing the local consumer. Local
players too, both omnichannel and pure players
like Ounass, The Modist and Namshi have sprung
up to capitalise on this trend.
Consumer attitudes too are changing,
as they want more value, transparency and local
content from fashion players. Middle Eastern
fashion companies are raising their game, with
designers, platforms, social media stars and local
style trends starting to feature more in the global
fashion narrative. The Middle East is starting to
shift from being a historical importer of fashion
trends to a nascent exporter. Following the
success of Lebanese designers like Elie Saab and
Rabih Kayrouz on the international stage, new
designers from GCC countries are making their
mark; Kuwait’s Yousef Aljasmi and Bahrain’s Hala
Kaiksow are names with growing international
recognition and others are riding on their tailcoats.
Fashion players must think carefully
about how best to play in the GCC. Partnerships
will continue to play an important role in the
form of franchise relationships, joint ventures or,
in some cases, distribution-only models. Local
family-owned businesses including Alhokair,
Alshaya, Al Tayer, Azadea, Chalhoub, Saudi
Jawahir Trading and Rubaiyat, among others, are
the lynchpins of the local scene, and will play an
important role in physical, and increasingly digital,
retail. A winning e-commerce strategy, intimate
knowledge of the consumer and cost excellence
will be crucial.
No doubt, the GCC will continue to be
an important fashion market, but brands that
maximise performance across multiple channels
and territories are most likely to outperform.
The authors of this article work within McKinsey and Company’s Apparel,
Fashion and Luxury group, serving a range of clients across the Middle East.
02. Beyond China
A model walks the runway at the Yousef Al-Jasmi show during Dubai Fashion Forward
Stuart C. Wilson/Getty Images for Fashion Forward
32
The State of Fashion 2020
CONSUMER
SHIFTS
33
03. NEXT GEN SOCIAL
As traditional engagement models struggle on
established social media platforms, fashion players will
need to rethink their strategy and ind ways to maximise
their return on marketing spend. Attention-grabbing
content will be key, deployed on the right platform for
each market, using persuasive calls-to-action and,
wherever possible, a seamless link to checkout.
The collective reach of the social media
giants is staggering. Facebook reported 2.5 billion
monthly active users in September 2019, and
both Instagram and WeChat have more than a
billion users each. Yet, growth seems to be slowing
and users are spending less time on some of the
major platforms: in the US, average daily time on
Facebook fell to 37 minutes a day from 41 minutes
in 2017.
47
Stagnating enthusiasm has not stopped
advertising rates and revenues rising at the big
platforms. According to one report, the average
digital ad cost has risen 12 percent in two years,
but digital ad expenditure rose 42 percent,
48
helping
analysts forecast Facebook’s revenue in 2019
above $69 billion at the time of writing,
49
up
70 percent from 2017 and equal to all print media
ad spending.
50
However, visits to those advertisers
on social media have risen only 11 percent.
51
The challenge is that advertising overload
might be hurting engagement. Global consum-
er-goods giant P&G discovered that people spent
less than two seconds on average looking at its ads
on mobile feeds — and that those ads appeared too
often. Chief brand ocer Marc Pritchard explained
in the Wall Street Journal, “We’re trying to reduce
the amount of times we reach the same person over
and over again.”
52
The data suggests that it is time for brands
to rethink their social media strategy. Specifically,
they need to re-evaluate how to exploit existing
platforms more eectively, capitalise on the rise
of new platforms and understand how to generate
direct sales through social platforms.
The typical route to reach a large audience
on existing platforms such as Instagram is to either
build followers organically or borrow followers
using influencers — both these routes are starting
to wobble. UK cosmetics company Lush realised
that its organic newsfeed content reached only
6 percent of its online followers and became tired of
fighting the platforms’ own advertising algorithms.
It decided to shut down its social media accounts to
regain ownership of its communication by relying
on brand-owned channels instead. While this may
be an extreme step to take, it demonstrates the
lengths that some brands are willing to go to try to
overcome current challenges on social media.
While an incredible 86 percent of
companies use influencer marketing,
53
the
engagement rate for such sponsored posts on
Instagram dropped from 4 percent in Q1 2016 to
2.4 percent in Q1 2019.
54
Facebook’s and Twitter’s
numbers are even worse at 0.37 percent and 0.05
percent respectively.
55
The harsh reality is that it
is increasingly hard to excite and inspire audiences
34
The State of Fashion 2020
Consumer Shifts
who are overwhelmed and overstimulated. Going
forward, a static image displaying a product with a
model or influencer will no longer cut it. Industry
executives believe that the top trend shaping
the fashion industry within the next 12 months
will be a rise in the importance of “storytelling”
and marketing strategies that resemble media
productions.
56
Arnold Ma, chief executive of creative
digital agency Qumin, suggests players should
move up the influencer funnel, partnering with
individuals or other brands who truly live the
lifestyle and can tell an authentic story, rather than
blindly paying popular more generic influencers to
promote their products.
Ralph Lauren adopted this approach when
it worked with fashion publication Highsnobiety
for its 50
th
anniversary. The published advertorial
followed the impact the brand had on designers,
collectors and the fashion industry from the Ivy
League to the streets of Brooklyn.
57
Another tactic to grab consumers’ attention
is to use social media to tap into the drop culture
typically associated with streetwear labels.
Consumers’ desire to be in the know and to have
an exclusive product drives a large part of the
purchase. Last year, for example, Burberry released
a limited-edition Ricardo Tisci T-shirt available
only on Instagram and WeChat for 24 hours.
The company used the hype around this drop to
release more limited-edition designs available on
social media or exclusively in its London flagship
store for just 24 hours.
As data shows, it is getting harder to stand
out in established social media. Fashion players
need to understand how to gain traction on newer
platforms. 70 percent of fashion executives believe
that increased exploration of and spend
on new media platforms versus more “traditional”
platforms will be crucial to their companies.
At the same time, executives are showing
hesitation, and only 8 percent are choosing to
increase spend on TikTok, the biggest emerging
platform with more than 800 million downloads
and a user base skewed under 30.
Creating convincing content is critical on a
platform like TikTok: the landing page is a constant
stream of short videos sourced globally and
compiled by artificial intelligence.
This approach challenges the traditional
view of the need to build an audience, but does
require extremely high-quality content to stand
out. Not that brands always need to create this
content themselves. Uniqlo appealed to TikTok
users to upload videos of themselves wearing their
favourite item from the company’s UT line.
The best videos appeared on monitors in Uniqlo
stores around the world.
There are many other emerging social
media networks, including those focused on gaming
such as Fortnite or Tencent’s mobile game Honour
of Kings, which have fast become integral to youth
culture. Fortnite has more than 200 million users
and is free to play, but made a sizeable chunk of its
$2.4 billion in revenue last year by selling avatar
skins.
58
Nike was quick to see the potential and
started selling branded skins on the platform.
In China, brands such as Mac Cosmetics, L’Oréal
and Hong Kong jeweller Chow Sang Sang have all
partnered with Honour of Kings, which has more
than 200 million registered players of whom more
than half are female (and women mobile gamers
are 79 percent more likely to make an in-app
purchase).
59
Ultimately, all the content creation needs
to lead to sales, and social commerce is growing
fast. By 2023, it could account for a fifth of all
online sales in China — a staggering $166 billion.
60
Brands are cooperating with social-media
messaging super-apps such as WeChat, livestream-
ing platforms such as Yizhibo and Kuaishou and
The harsh reality is that it is
increasingly hard to excite
and inspire audiences who are
overwhelmed and overstimulated.
35
03. Next Gen Social
social-commerce platforms such as Xiaohongshu
to introduce and sell products.
Other social media platforms have been
progressively incorporating commercial functions.
Pinterest has its catalogue, while Instagram
has evolved its checkout and augmented reality
functions, letting customers “try-on” Ray Ban
glasses or Mac lipstick. A wide range of messenger
apps use chatbots to generate direct sales rather
than just serving as a customer service channel.
Nowhere, however, is as advanced in social
commerce as China.
One app that may oer us a glimpse into the
future is Douyin, TikTok’s counterpart in China.
Douyin, which is extremely popular with young
people, has just launched a game-changing in-video
search function through which users can zoom in on
clothing, or other items in the video, and link through
to related content and even directly purchase
products — all from within the app. These are not
videos that are actively selling or promoting products,
but rather regular user generated content — any post
from anybody could become a potential sale.
Overall, in light of consumers’ growing
apathy — and sometimes antipathy — towards
traditional social media advertising models,
we expect fashion brands in 2020 to signifi-
cantly re-evaluate their strategies in a quest for
meaningful returns. This means having a deep
understanding of which platforms and networks
their target consumers are engaging with, both
in terms of region and demographics. Brands will
start to establish content creation as a discipline
within their organisation, focusing on engaging
and tailored content that can work across a range
of channels. Brands must also be prepared
to exploit the new sales-orientated functions
of platforms, as well as develop chatbots in
combination with messenger apps to generate more
immediate online sales.
At the time of writing, TikTok was said to be under national security review in
the United States.
Exhibit 5:
There are a number of global social platforms with hundreds of
millions, if not billions, of users
TOP SOCIAL PLATFORMS GLOBALLY, BASED ON MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS, USER ACCOUNTS, OR UNIQUE VISITORS
TO EACH PLATFORM, LATEST AS OF JANUARY 2019, MILLIONS
SOURCE: HOOTSUITE WE ARE SOCIAL REPORTS. DATA UPDATED TO 25TH JANUARY 2019 HTTPS:DATAREPORTAL.COMREPORTSDIGITAL2019GLOBALDIGITAL
OVERVIEW. EXCLUDES SKYPE AND LINKEDIN.
FACEBOOK
YOUTUBE
WHATSAPP
FB MESSENGER
WECHAT
INSTAGRAM
QQ
QZONE
DOUYINTIKTOK
SINA WEIBO
REDDIT
TWITTER
DOUBAN
BAIDU TIEBA
SNAPCHAT
VIBER
PINTEREST
LINE
2,271
194
250
260
287
300
320
326
330
446
500
531
803
1,000
1,083
1,300
1,500
1,900
36
The State of Fashion 2020
37
It has become abundantly clear that the
future of digital connectivity lies in Asia.
Beyond the sheer number of “next-gen” social
media platforms cropping up in Asia, it is the
speed at which they evolve that stuns the average
marketing executive. Dozens of dynamic networks
mingle and collide in this region’s vast, vibrant and
increasingly tangled ecosystem where the variety
on oer can overwhelm would-be partners and
fashion brands alike.
Though tech hubs from Stockholm to Tel Aviv
have been heralded the “next Silicon Valley,” the
“social media industry in Asia is advanced and
more competitive than [those in] other regions,”
says Hiromi Yamaguchi, a Tokyo-based senior
analyst at market research firm Euromonitor.
While growth on major social media platforms
is slowing in western economies, the potential
looks brighter in the east. GSMA Intelligence
forecasts that in Asia Pacific the rate for unique
mobile penetration will grow from 67 percent in
2017 to 73 percent by 2025 and that the region will
account for just over half of new mobile subscribers
globally by the same year.
The region’s early rollout of 4G and then 5G
networks and the mobile-first nature of consumer
behaviour has long meant that Asia is a natural
environment for social media to flourish.
The result of these and other digital advance-
ments is that Asia is now where the bulk of social
innovation is happening —so much so that Silicon
Valley’s giants have begun to imitate their new
eastern rivals.
Earlier this year, Facebook chief executive
Mark Zuckerberg announced plans to reshape
Facebook’s social networking apps into a
super-app, not unlike China’s WeChat, South
Korea’s KakaoTalk, Indonesia’s Gojek or Japan’s
Line. More recently, Google began moving toward
the super-app model through its new Spot platform
in India, which will allow businesses to create
in-app experiences accessible through Google Pay
(mirroring WeChat’s mini programme function
and Gojek’s multi-service model).
These and other Asian behemoths have become
an indispensable part of daily life across the
continent, but global fashion players — many of
which rely on young Asian shoppers to keep their
businesses buoyant — have only begun to wake up
to their potential.
Greater Fluency and Earlier Adoption Is Needed
While mobile users in the west remain
tethered to their Instagram, WhatsApp and
Snapchat accounts, Asia’s local social platforms
continue to optimise and pioneer new functions
Want to See the Future of Social
Media? Look to Asia.
Global fashion brands are still learning how to leverage powerful apps like WeChat and TikTok,
but Asia’s digital ecosystem has already hatched the next generation of social platforms. With
hundreds of millions of users ready to be converted into consumers, brands need to invest now.
by Zoe Suen
A gap is widening between local
Asian fashion players, typically
fast and fluent in local platforms,
and global fashion players, often
slow to adapt and not as fluent as
they need to be.
Guests at Hera Seoul Fashion Week 2019. Christian Vierig/Getty Images
03. Next Gen Social
38
The State of Fashion 2020
at a dizzying pace, preparing to usurp screen time
from the global giants. The same can be said about
the fashion companies trying to harness these
“next-gen” social platforms.
A gap is widening between local Asian fashion
players, typically fast and fluent in local platforms,
and global fashion players, often slow to adapt
and not as fluent as they need to be. So long as this
gap remains, the former will have a marketing
advantage over the latter. International fashion
brands and retailers must move faster to keep up.
Tech experts and marketers are now
marvelling at the astronomical rise of Chinese
social video platform TikTok, which raked in 188
million downloads in 2019’s first quarter and
continues to dominate global rankings, according
to mobile app intelligence firm Sensor Tower.But
global recognition of TikTok — and of its Beijing-
based parent company Bytedance — came late.
Two years before the global fashion and beauty
industry woke up to the popularity of TikTok, local
Chinese brands recognised the opportunity of
Douyin, TikTok’s sister app. Douyin was launched
by Bytedance in 2016 and has since lured Chanel
and Dior to build their own accounts. While not
every brand can be an early adopter and not every
platform is suitable for every brand, it is important
to be nimble enough to deploy a dedicated social
strategy for platforms when the time is right.
Thanks to the rapid economic development
that took China by storm (and is now sweeping
through India and Southeast Asian economies like
Vietnam), mobile users in these countries appear
to be more receptive to the unfamiliar.
“People [in Asia] don’t hold onto legacy
behaviours such as using Facebook or sticking with
credit cards instead of mobile payment,”
says Arnold Ma, founder and chief executive
of Chinese digital marketing agency Qumin.
“When something new comes out, people welcome
it with open arms.”
This explains why tech currents increas-
ingly flow from the east. “The west is just seeing
successful examples and copying it,” Ma says.
“They’re using Asia as a guinea pig.”
Staying on top of Asian social platform devel-
opments is not only important to better reach
consumers in Asia. Brands can also apply learnings
from social media trends in Asia to their business
elsewhere, giving them an edge over competitors
in non-Asian markets. So, what do Asia’s next-gen
social media foretell?
Vertical Communities in the Era of Nichification
“Human beings don’t live their lives as one
massive community on one platform. We’re
specific about the activities we engage in,” wrote
Kavin Bharti Mittal, the founder and chief
executive of up-and-coming Indian messenger
app Hike, in a blog post. In 2016, Hike raised $175
million in funding from Tencent and Softbank.
“It would be the norm as these new social
networks cater to a more verticalised audience,”
Mittal continued, referring to “the rise of social
niches” as the future of social media.
While not all up-and-coming platforms will
become social media channels or advertising
partners for fashion and beauty marketers, they
help colour in a wider picture of how people will
communicate, shop and seek entertainment.
Elijah Whaley, vice president of growth at
Shanghai-based Acorn Digital, echoes that Asia’s
successful next-gen platforms are catering to
users’ “psychographic and demographic appeals.”
He cites Bilibili, a Chinese short video platform
that emerged almost a decade ago as a community
“People [in Asia] don’t hold
onto legacy behaviours such as
using Facebook or sticking with
credit cards instead of mobile
payment. When something new
comes out, people welcome it
with open arms.”
In-Depth
39
for anime lovers and gamers, but since grew into a
NASDAQ-listed company boasting over 110 million
monthly active users (MAUs) watching videos
on topics from gaming and e-sports to makeup
and wardrobes.
Though largely untapped by global brands,
Bilibili’s audience is predominantly Gen Z and the
company recorded net revenues (from in-game
purchases, live-stream transactions, advertising
and e-commerce) of $224 million for the second
quarter of 2019 — a 50 percent year-on-year boost.
Despite a “no advertisements” policy, it inked a
deal with Alibaba’s Taobao in 2019 to connect its
creators with the e-commerce marketplace.
A platform more familiar to fashion and beauty
marketers is Chinese social e-commerce unicorn
Xiaohongshu, which caters to millennial women
looking for beauty, fashion and lifestyle recom-
mendations. Years before Instagram unlocked
in-app purchasing, the Shanghai-based company
set a precedent for successful e-commerce func-
tionality within a social media, community-centric
infrastructure, finding a seamless balance that
global retailers and tech firms will probably try to
replicate for years to come.
But in addition to its success as a social
e-commerce hybrid, Xiaohongshu tailors its
experience to users’ various social niches.
When a user responds well to content, be it
lipstick swatches, Tokyo restaurant
recommendations or weight-lifting tutorials,
their ‘Explore’ page adapts accordingly, and
immediately.
By contrast, Instagram’s ‘Explore’ page algorithm
has been known to, as Refinery 29 described it, get
“out of whack.”
Xiaohongshu recently found its male-centric
equivalent in Chao, which allows users to join
communities of interest from Star Wars to the
brand Supreme. “Firms are creating products and
aggregating communities with more in common
with each other, and developing functionality
specifically tailored to their needs,” Whaley says.
The list of increasingly specialised social apps
goes on: while India’s “interest-based community
app” Helo specialises in viral news, Beijing-based
social network Douban appeals to users interested
in arts and culture (and could be an option for the
likes of Chanel, which invests in global exhibitions
and an arts and culture podcast).
South Korean app WeVerse — developed
by the entertainment label behind global
boy-band phenomenon BTS — allows K-Pop
idols to communicate with their fans across
the globe.Considering the clout of stars such as
Gucci global ambassador Kai (of boy-band EXO),
Jisoo and Chanel house ambassador Jennie Kim
(of Blackpink), the platform has the potential to
become an asset for luxury houses eyeing K-Pop’s
young audience.
Meanwhile, science-backed skincare
companies could appeal to consumers by
reaching out to key opinion leaders (KOLs) on
knowledge-sharing platforms like Zhihu, the
Chinese Quora clone-turned education and social
community. According to iResearch, 80 percent of
Zhihu’s registered users have a bachelor’s degree
or above.
“You find a lot of sharing on social media but
it’s hard to know what to trust,” says Yash Mehta,
Bengaluru-based tech columnist and contributor
to Tech in Asia. “A platform where you know a
person has a subject-matter expertise through a
badging system is in great demand.”
A guest outside O White, during Paris Fashion Week.
Edward Berthelot/Getty Images
03. Next Gen Social
40
The State of Fashion 2020
Even blogging and messaging apps are
becoming more tailored to reflect IRL vertical
communities and will provide brands with a unique
opportunity to communicate with shoppers, take
customer service to new heights and cultivate
vertical communities with high engagement.
As Hike climbs the ranks in India, messaging
app Telegram has drawn 300 million monthly
users across Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines
as well as parts of the Middle East and Eastern
Europe, by allowing people to customise their
messaging experiences. The encrypted app
(a draw for increasingly privacy-minded users in
some of these markets) also includes a platform for
developers, allowing anyone to build specialised
tools and integrate services. Where retailers are
already using personal exchanges to build relation-
ships with consumers over WeChat and WhatsApp,
Telegram, while still quiet where global brands
are concerned, could prove integral for Southeast
Asia.British e-commerce site Asos has already set
up its own channel.
Social apps that focus on dating and women’s
empowerment are also potentially lucrative
marketing channels. Take Singapore-based Dayre,
a female-only paid blogging app and network, that
aims to foster “a safe space where women could
come together to express themselves in whatever
way they choose” —a community and ethos that
could appeal to women-focused brands from
Glossier to intimates brand ThirdLove.
Couples’ messaging apps such as Japan’s Pairs
and South Korea’s Between are also thriving,
allowing users to communicate, share media and
match their schedules —a channel with potential
for luxury brands looking to market Valentine’s
Day campaigns and gifting-friendly items such as
jewellery, accessories and perfume.
Customised Content Meets Cutting Edge
Technology
Despite the move toward nichification, some
big platforms that serve broader audiences will
continue to perform well for fashion and beauty
brands, but only by investing in sophisticated
new functions.
Live streams, for all the attention they have
garnered, aren’t losing steam. Singaporean Bigo
Technology’s live streaming and short video apps
Likee Video and Bigo Live both ranked in Sensor
Tower’s top ten social media apps globally in
August 2019. But users are spoilt for choice and the
space is competitive.
Regionality is key to understanding how to
spread a brand’s marketing spend. According
to SimilarWeb, Middle Eastern and Southeast
Asian audiences are partial to Bigo Live, TikTok
and Tango, while Livza is an Indian favourite
and Japan loves Pococha Live. In China, YY.com,
Inke, Huajiao and Yizhibo are just a few of the
contenders, while giants like Alibaba’s Taobao,
Tencent’s WeChat and Xiaohongshu have all
optimised their apps with live stream functions
of their own.
Beauty brands in particular should pay
attention to Asian live stream opportunities. Live
stream influencer Li Jiaqi, also known as China’s
“Lipstick Prince,” rose to fame for reportedly
selling over 15,000 lipsticks in just 15 minutes
on Taobao. But the medium is also being used by
luxury houses, from live streaming runway shows
and makeup demos (cue Burberry and Dior) to
advertising and seeding products to influencers
and celebrities. Such platforms may cater to a
younger demographic, but users aren’t afraid to
spend. According to Sensor Tower, Douyin and
TikTok grossed $11.7 million through in-app sales
of virtual coins in July 2019 alone.
One of Japan and South Korea’s favourite
apps, Snow was launched as a Snapchat dupe
by Korean internet search giant Naver but has
“A platform where you know a
person has a subject-matter
expertise through a badging system
is in great demand.”
In-Depth
41
since abandoned messaging functions to focus on
helping users take flattering selfies and videos with
an impressive array of augmented reality filters.
Last year, Snow raised $50 million from Softbank
and Sequoia Capital China, and as of January 2019,
James Mattone reported that Snow ranks among
the top 100 apps for MAUs via Facebook logins,
beating Netflix and ubiquitous US payments
app Venmo.
Snow has already seen its share of fashion and
beauty ads, but its augmented reality and facial
recognition capabilities (the result of a partnership
with Hong Kong-based AI unicorn SenseTime)
will enable global brands to craft new online-of-
fline experiences.
Artificial intelligence will become more
integral to engagement. On Douyin (and TikTok,
as well as rival apps like Xigua), users’ home
pages feature an AI-powered curation of content.
“Rather than having a niche platform, I think all
this content will live under the same platform, but
everyone will have a dierent experience according
to what they want,” says Ma. “It will all be tailored
to users.”
In September, Douyin launched a game-
changing in-video search function, allowing users
to select a person or item of clothing and search
for other posts containing them or buy the goods
directly. “Brands need to be working toward
how they can leverage the direction that social is
moving to, and they need to be doing that now,”
Ma wrote online.
“This is merely the tip of the iceberg.”
Super-Apps Morphing into Operating Systems
Though standalone apps will become more
targeted, personalised and community-centric,
super-apps won’t stop being a valuable channel for
engagement and sales.
Take WeChat, which in early 2019 announced
that its daily active users had hit a staggering one
billion. Growth is now slowing down, however,
and some users are abandoning the super-app.
Research firm Jiguang estimates that only 15
percent of people born after 2000 post daily
on WeChat, as younger users dedicate more
screen-time to platforms like Douyin (51 percent
of the latter’s user base was born after 1995).
Though some users may look elsewhere for
their social media needs, Ma doesn’t think WeChat
will lose its dominance in China. Fortunately
for parent company Tencent, the platform has
morphed into something far greater than a social
media tool.
“WeChat will never be irrelevant as a social
operating system, with the utilities it provides
such as mini programmes,” he says, referring
to the app-in-app function allowing users to
access other platforms and perform transactions
without leaving WeChat’s interface — not unlike
software such as Apple’s iOS that grants a user the
opportunity to run other applications.
Louis Vuitton, Celine and Dior have all
invested in e-commerce and gamified mini
programmes of their own for the super-app, and
Armani beauty this year launched an augmented
reality virtual try-on shop that allowed users to
try on lip colours without leaving their seat, or
WeChat.
“Brands need to be working toward
how they can leverage the direction
that social is moving to, and they
need to be doing that now.”
03. Next Gen Social
Chinese National Day in Beijing, China.
Photo by Guang Niu/Getty Images
42
The State of Fashion 2020
In-Depth
“[WeChat is] more of a platform for other apps
now,” Ma adds.
It is a similar positioning for Line, which in
addition to 81 million MAUs in Japan has an avid
user base in Thailand and Indonesia (amounting
to 194 million globally) and counts Fendi and
Dyptique as advertisers. Line users are likely to
stick around for its range of services from mobile
payments to navigation, if not the whole package.
“Line has penetrated into every corner of Japanese
lifestyle,” Euromonitor’s Yamaguchi says.
Yet fashion and luxury brands have so far been
less willing to invest in ways to leverage super-apps
like Line, South Korea’s KakaoTalk or Indonesia’s
Gojek. Most have been focusing all their eorts to
keep up with WeChat in China. China’s colossal
size may be the justification, but that does not
discount missed opportunities elsewhere using
Asia’s other super-apps.
Despite the domination of super-apps, the rise
of hyper-personalised platforms also presents
fresh opportunities to reach an engaged and
targeted audience. This is good news for brands,
given the rising costs of acquiring and retaining
consumers in competitive markets like China: the
cost per thousand user views (CPM) of advertise-
ments placed on Tmall has increased by an average
of 60 percent since 2017, according to McKinsey’s
‘China Digital Consumer Trends in 2019’ report.
Either way, companies will be empowered
to tailor their oerings and activations to their
platform of choice, and each platform will acquire
a stronger purpose. “Connect with your audience
in dierent ways on dierent platforms, adapt
your strategy [and] tactics to the user behaviours
on various platforms and you will be rewarded for
your eort,” advises Ma.
As ever, the caveat is for fashion players to
ensure that any new platforms align with the
brand’s DNA and objectives — and, wherever
possible, to create content especially for that
platform. For apps like Douyin, this means highly
engaging content in a vertical short-video format.
“Don’t use recycled videos from other channels
and previous campaigns because the type of video
that works well is very dierent and unique to
Douyin,” Ma adds.
Though strategies will vary per platform,
Whaley predicts that the brands who get the most
out of “next-gen” social media will be the ones
who see them through the eyes of everyday users.
“Brands are always promoting or selling, and they
forget that being on social media should be a social
experience,” he warns.
Above all, crafting an engaging brand voice is
what ties a digital presence together, especially
on platforms that are new to brands. “Take a
value-first approach to communication. Don’t
miss the vision of being [genuine] communities,”
Whaley adds.
Cutting-edge social platforms from Asia
represent a lucrative opportunity in more ways
than one, but for fashion and beauty players to cash
in, they will need to remember to build trust and
credibility on each platform.
“Connect with your audience
in dierent ways on dierent
platforms, adapt your strategy
[and] tactics to the user
behaviours on various platforms
and you will be rewarded for
your eort.”
43
04. IN THE NEIGHBOURHOOD
Today’s consumers are used to getting
what they want — when and where they want it.
Convenience is key, and in terms of shopping that
often means local in tandem with online shopping.
Given that many people still like to touch, feel and
try fashion items before they buy, the industry
is well placed to benefit from this theme. We
expect fashion retailers to ramp up their presence
in neighbourhoods and new districts beyond
traditional commercial zones, with stores that
reflect the local community and focus on service
and experience.
Consumers have become accustomed to
immediate gratification and convenience and,
superficially, online shopping fulfils that need.
The wider context, however, is more complex.
While e-commerce has raised customer expecta-
tions, only a third of consumers think shopping
online is more convenient than going to a physical
store
61
and, according to an international study
by Facebook, 85 percent of consumers cited
convenience as the main reason to shop locally.
62
In the fashion category, more than 70 percent
of purchases are still made oine and online
channels account for just 13 percent of luxury
brand sales.
63
What this demonstrates is that
physical stores do matter but they need to be
convenient and meaningful for customers.
Broader consumer trends contribute to
the growing desire to shop locally too. The decline
in car ownership among younger urbanites means
these consumers want and need more amenities
on their doorstep. In food shopping, for example,
consumers are swapping the weekly grocery shop
for a series of small trips to local stores — in the UK
these smaller trips now account for more than half
of all baskets.
64
Local shops also make returns much easier
for consumers and from a retailer’s perspective,
the return rate for apparel is much lower for clothes
bought in store than for those bought online
(16 percent versus 25 percent respectively).
65
Consumer preference for local shopping is
leading retailers to rethink their store network and
to open in areas outside the traditional commercial
centres. These may be more residential, but some
are in smaller trendy commercial districts that are
attracting start-ups and cultural institutions, and
some may be in mixed-use retail complexes or even
satellite cities.
Consumer demand for convenience and immediacy
is prompting retailers to complement existing brick-
and-mortar networks with smaller format stores that
meet customers where they are and reduce friction
in the customer journey. The winning formula will
feature in-store experiences and localised assortments
in neighbourhoods and suburbs beyond the main
shopping thoroughfares.
In the fashion category, more
than 70 percent of purchases are
still made oline.
44
The State of Fashion 2020
Examples already abound internationally.
In the US, Nordstrom Local holds no inventory
but provides styling services, fittings, alterations,
as well as in-store pick up and return of both
Nordstrom goods and those of rival retailers.
Localisation is critical. According to Jamie
Nordstrom, president of stores, “We want to drive
engagement. The way you do that on the Upper
East Side [of New York City] is dierent from the
way you do that on Melrose in LA or downtown in
[New York City’s] West Village.”
66
In the UK, Anthropologie has announced
plans to open stores in “neighbourhood” locations,
with plans to more than double its number of
stores by next year. These new stores are often
considerably smaller than existing stores and each
has its own look and feel based on its location.
Peter Ruis, managing director of internation-
al, Anthropologie, told Drapers that “the idea
that people travel into the city… to shop has
disappeared because they can do that online.
Shopping has become much more local.”
67
“Shopping local” has been gaining ground
in emerging and frontier markets too. Pakistani
fashion and lifestyle brand Khaadi has traditional-
ly sold both ready-to-wear and unstitched fabrics
in its large-scale stores. Recently, it opened specific
fabric concept stores, catering to customers who
want to create their own bespoke clothing. The
new format stores are opening in areas outside the
large shopping neighbourhoods in mid-sized cities,
and enable Khaadi to compete directly with small,
informal cloth shops.
Mixed-use developments are increasingly
popular in many parts of the world.
In mall-friendly Dubai, Meraas has launched
several projects that seek to create new “urban
destinations,” combining residential units with
retail, leisure and food. For example, right next to
villas in the city’s Al Wasl area is the developer’s
low-rise City Walk complex with boutiques at
street level rather than enclosed in a mall.
In Bangkok, mixed-use developments are
an increasingly popular solution to escalating land
prices, with large-scale new projects including
One Bangkok and The Icon Siam, to name a few.
68
Retailers taking space in these properties benefit
from the steady footfall of both the buildings’
residents and their oce workers.
Sometimes, going “local” means moving
outside of downtown shopping districts as they
become congested. And in multi-nodal Asian
mega-cities that are more decentralised than
those in Europe and the US, “it’s not [one] strong
core and then suburban areas,” says Albert Chan,
director of development, planning and design
for real estate developer Shui On Land, which
is working on the Ruihong Tiandi development
in Shanghai’s regenerated northern district of
Hongkou. “The people who live in a community
[now] tend to live, work and play in that
community.”
69
Malls are still very popular in these new
areas — for example, in Shanghai’s Minhang
District, the city’s second largest, 29 new malls
opened in 2016 alone. These malls attract both
domestic retailers and major international brands
such as Nike, Sephora, Uniqlo and Calvin Klein
who recognise that some of their customers no
longer spend much time in the traditional central
business district of a megacity like Shanghai.
Whatever the context of these new
stores, simply replicating existing standard
store formats is unlikely to excite increasingly
demanding consumers. The more community-
focused the store, the more ambitious it needs to
be, in many cases delivering experiences more akin
to flagship stores but at the micro level.
Consumer Shifts
“The idea that people travel into
the city… to shop has disappeared
because they can do that online.
Shopping has become much
more local.”
45
Dr. Martens has established an experimental store
in a nineteenth-century building in the heart of
London’s Camden Market. In addition to its full
range of products, the store also oers exclusive
limited-edition designs, features artwork commis-
sioned by The Specials bass player Horace Panter,
and a space for customers to personalise their Dr.
Martens shoes (whether old or new).
American fashion designer Eileen Fisher
chose to launch a hybrid retail store concept in
Brooklyn as a nod to the unique character of the
New York City borough. “Making Space” focuses
on innovations, ideas and experiments, and has
space dedicated to community engagement with
workshops, movie screenings, gallery shows and
neighbourhood events. Every fortnight a dierent
artist-in-residence is featured, and the store also
oers a mindfulness programme.
Some digitally native brands also find local
neighbourhoods more appealing for their flagship
stores. In the US, players such as Reformation,
Everlane and Warby Parker have seen the value
of being where customers live and oer a physical
showroom rather than a full range of products.
Absolute footfall is less important for these
retailers as the bulk of their sales remain online.
Customers’ growing desire for convenience
and to shop close to home means that in 2020, we
expect moving into the neighbourhood to be a core
pillar of fashion retailers’ omnichannel strategy.
This means using a wide range of local store
formats that complement both flagship locations
and digital channels, and that can serve customers
where they live both for sales and returns.
These smaller, more decentralised stores
will focus on personalised service and use
design, highly focused assortments and experi-
ential elements to be locally relevant. Some may
be pop-ups, some might be in new corners of
established neighbourhoods, but all will seek to
boost brand awareness and loyalty and will need
to rely on highly ecient inventory management.
Retailers will further explore the potential
of artificial intelligence and machine learning
to create tailored assortments for their
local consumers.
In countries where urbanisation is still
a prevailing demographic trend, fashion retailers
are likely to take the opportunity to move into
new retail space in smaller satellite cities and
mixed-use residential complexes in the mega-city.
Whatever the store format or brand aesthetic,
the winning formula will be focused on
maximising the use of these new spaces both
for servicing and acquiring customers.
04. In the Neighbourhood
Exhibit 6:
Over 40 percent of survey
respondents anticipate smaller
format stores playing an
increasingly important role
next year
% OF RESPONDENTS ANTICIPATING THE CHANGE IN THE
ROLE OF STORES NEXT YEAR
SOURCE: BOFMCKINSEY STATE OF FASHION 2020 SURVEY
Smaller
format
42
Larger
format
11
46
The State of Fashion 2020
Pete Nordstrom
Co-President, Nordstrom Inc.
Nordstrom co-president Pete
Nordstrom started working at
his family’s downtown Seattle
store as a stock boy when he was
just 12 years old. By the time he
turned 16, he was selling shoes
out on the shop floor. Over the
years, Nordstrom has become
known as the concept guy,
campaigning in the early 2000s
to bring more avant-garde and
cool young designers into the
retailer’s high-low fold, enlisting
industry insiders like Jerey
Kalinsky and Olivia Kim to
modernise the operation.
Now, Nordstrom is embarking
on his most challenging concept
yet: opening a colossal full-price
women’s store on the island of
Manhattan, the most compet-
itive retail market in the US.
Central to his New York strategy
is the roll-out of smaller formats
across the city in upmarket
residential neighbourhoods like
the West Village and the Upper
East Side that will be virtually
anchored by the new Midtown
A fourth-generation member of the
Nordstrom family, Pete Nordstrom
is rolling out more of the American
department store’s smaller formats
in a bid to optimise the omnichannel
experience by reducing friction and
harnessing the power of the local
neighbourhood.
— by Lauren Sherman
Executive Interview
47
location. Not to be confused
with Rack, the company’s
o-price chain, these smaller
Nordstrom Local outlets don’t
hold inventory. Instead they are
service hubs for online pickups
and returns, alterations and
personal styling.
With proof of concept from the
three Local outlets he opened
in Melrose, Brentwood and
Downtown Los Angeles between
2017 and 2018, Nordstrom feels
ready for New York. At a time
when multi-brand retail is in
major flux, the department store
veteran seems confident in the
new format as more Local stores
are in the pipeline for both cities.
Harnessing the convenience of
local neighbourhoods to boost
the omnichannel experience
sounds sensible enough, but has
Nordstrom really discovered the
missing link in the fashion store
network of the future?
BoF: What was the thinking
behind your strategy for the
smaller Nordstrom Local
format?
To do it in one place [or] a couple
places and if we get proof of
concept, then we can learn fast
[and] roll it out.
What did you learn after
opening your first couple of
Local outlets in LA?
What we found was that if we
could bring our services to
people and connect the digital
and the physical store world,
that would increase engagement
—and that would increase wallet
share with customers. That, in
fact, was exactly what happened
in our LA store.
So you saw an uplift when you
began opening the Nordstrom
Locals?
Yes, what we saw first was when
people engaged with it, we got
quite a bit more spend, more
wallet share from them. Then
it was like, how can we get more
people through? Ultimately, the
way we’re going to define success
with this whole strategy is: can
we gain market share? That’s
the outcome we’re looking for
and it’s been just really in the
last handful of months where
we’ve moved the needle on that.
We’ve got a fairly high degree of
confidence that it will work in
New York as well.
In terms of Local stores and
how they drive revenue online,
can you tell us how that
interplay actually works?
Our experience is if we add a
physical store to a market that
we’re not in, the online business
grows by 20, 25 percent…
Physical stores make for a better
online experience rather than
having to ship stu back through
the mail, [and it] creates trips
to a physical store, so you get
a chance to sell [customers]
something else if they’re
returning it or changing it.
Are services at Nordstrom
Local stores tailored to each
location?
In New York, for example, one
of the things we do on the Upper
East Side is we’ve got this stroller
cleaning thing. I have a little
kid, so I get it. It turns out that’s
really popular and makes sense,
particularly in New York where
people are walking around all
the time. I don’t know if that
would make as much sense
[in our Melrose Avenue Local
store] in LA, but it certainly has
worked really well in New York.
[Another example is] on Melrose,
we have nail services. That’s not
unique to LA, but that’s one that
worked pretty well there.
Are there things that you have
done in LA that have been
particularly successful that
you’re bringing to New York?
People like… the ability to
return or exchange an online
purchase, that’s a big one. One
of the benefits [of] Local [is that]
we take the friction out of the
returns and the benefit to us is
we get returns back faster. If you
think about the transit time of
mailing around returns, par-
ticularly of unworn goods, that’s
inventory for us and, if it’s out
in the mail system somewhere
or on the road, it’s inventory we
can’t sell. If it’s going to come
back, we want to get it back soon.
If we make it convenient for
people to return stu, we get it
back sooner and it enables us to
be able to sell it.
Anything else?
The alterations [service] is a
big one [because] people are
“Physical stores make for a better online
experience rather than having to ship stu
back through the mail, [and it] creates trips
to a physical store, so you get a chance to
sell [customers] something else if they’re
returning it or changing it.”
04. In the Neighbourhood
48
The State of Fashion 2020
buying a lot of stu online and
a fair amount of people require
some kind of alteration. I think
we’re the largest employer of
alterations tailoring people in
the country, because we have
them in every store. We also
have them in the Locals. We
provide that service for not only
Nordstrom purchases but if they
have stu they bought from
other places. We charge for that
service and we’re good at it.
Is it true that you allow
customers to drop o returns
of merchandise from other
retailers too?
Yes, I think you’d have to look
at it in the way that a UPS store
[operates]. It’s not that we’re
taking back [other retailers’]
returns, it’s just you’ve got to get
this thing mailed [so] we’ll do
it [for you]. We’ve got all those
carriers coming through that
store every day and we’ll act
as an intermediary to facilitate
your return.
We have a clothing take-back
[service too]. If customers are
cleaning out their closets and
want us to donate the clothes,
we do that. We’re learning [and]
we’re nimble enough to try stu
and if it doesn’t work, we try
something else and empower
our teams to come up with good
ideas. It’s been a pretty fun
process [and] we feel like we
have a good understanding of
what we need to do with these
Local outlets in New York.
How does your inventory
management system work
within the same city? For
example, what happens
when a customer bought
something at one of your full
department store locations
like Nordstrom The Grove
or Nordstrom Rack in LA but
then returns it to a smaller
Nordstrom Local store in LA?
Can you just move it across
the city, or does it need to be
processed through a central
distribution centre?
It kind of depends. A lot of the
stu that we take, if we take it
back in a Local, we don’t keep
the inventory there because
we don’t really have the
inventory, but we would keep it
probably in the [local market]
ecosystem. The idea of all this
is utilising our local, physical
assets to be more than just
a store, but actually, to be a
facilitator of moving inventory
around in an ecient way.
I know you’ve recently opened
your full-price women’s store
in Manhattan. How do you
envision this store interact-
ing with and feeding o the
Local stores in New York?
It’s almost the perfect environ-
ment for those highly-concen-
trated areas where literally you
can move stu around with a
van, and you can have stu for
customers in a matter of hours
rather than days. It’s just, again,
the perfect marriage of physical
assets and the digital online
business, which [although] it’s
not unique to us, it’s a compet-
itive advantage that we would
have over a pure online [player]
that doesn’t have physical assets
that they can utilise in this way.
[It will also] make for a better
customer experience.
‘The third place’ concept
for retail has been around
for decades. How do you feel
about this in terms of both
your small-format stores and
your large-format stores?
Do you want people spending
extended periods of time
there?
Yes, we’re keenly aware of that
concept. Our deal’s a little
bit dierent. I don’t think we
necessarily expect that people
are just going to be hanging out
at the store. However, there are
reasons to be there and they’re
not just about buying a pair of
shoes. For example, what we
have in the women’s store is
seven dierent places where you
can eat or drink. Some are bigger
or smaller than others [but]
food… is a great reason to be able
to stick around and not have to
leave.
How much of your thinking is
about the practical solutions
that retail can provide versus
the fun or cool factor of the
retail experience?
We’ve got a big culture around
customer service and every
good comment we get is [about]
a customer who came to us
with some kind of problem or
situation [that] we solved for
them. It’s not like, ‘I came in on
the best day of my life and I was
so happy, and I was going to buy
a lipstick and I bought it. Thanks
for selling me a lipstick.’ It’s
like, ‘Oh my God, I only had five
minutes,’ or, ‘I forgot to pack my
shoes and I’m in New York and I
“We say, ‘embrace the
brown box, embrace
the bag’ because the
customer is coming
in and they need help
and we’re there to
provide it.”
Executive Interview
49
had to get some shoes at 10:00 at
night and you guys picked up the
phone, I was able to get them.’
Can you give an example?
When a customer walks into
a store and they’ve got an old
Nordstrom bag or a brown box
or something, your first reaction
as a sales person is ‘I’m going to
have to facilitate a return, but
I’d rather be selling something.’
We turn that around, we say,
‘embrace the brown box, embrace
the bag’ because the customer
is coming in and they need help
and we’re there to provide it.
It creates a great opportunity to
create a relationship, to create
an experience for a customer
that may or may not pay o in
that moment but plants the seed
that if I’m going to go to a store
like this, Nordstrom is the best
place to go because they’ve taken
the friction out of it.
‘Embrace the brown box’ —
that’s a good motto. How does
your localisation strategy
play out in terms of the wider
company goals?
All this stu is somewhat
new. There’s not a blueprint
for this because our business
has evolved and changed so
much, and the industry has [too,
but] it’s got to score on a lot of
dierent levels. The greater New
York City market is the biggest
retail market in the country.
We have Long Island or New
Jersey and the surrounding
areas, [but] if we’re going to be a
success in Manhattan, it’s got to
be more [than] just the nice new
store in the neighbourhood. It’s
got to connect the digital and
physical world. It’s got to serve
more broadly [and] because
we have these Locals — these
other places to interact with
Nordstrom — it allows us to
cover the whole island.
How does doing
neighbourhood retail
well in New York, for
example, impact the picture
nationwide?
If the only thing we do by
opening a physical store there
and connecting all the dots…
is make the New York market
our number one market, that’s
big. That’s a lot. We can see what
the size of the prize is; we know
what we’re trying to achieve.
Currently, our number-one
market is Los Angeles, just in
terms of total revenue. But if
we can fulfill the promise of
what New York has to oer in
terms of market size, then that
will be a big lift to the top line of
our business.
This interview has been edited and condensed.
“If we’re going to
be a success in
Manhattan, it’s got
to be more [than] just
the nice new store in
the neighbourhood.
It’s got to connect the
digital and physical
world.”
04. In the Neighbourhood
50
The State of Fashion 2020
In-Depth
Unlocking the Power of Stores
In an era deined by digital, it is all too easy to assume that physical stores
are on the decline. Why invest vast sums of money on a store network,
distribution and labour when your customers are increasingly shopping
online? We believe that stores will continue to play an important role
in the future. An evolution is required, as the modern store will need to
adapt to shifting consumer behaviour and complement the increasingly
digital nature of fashion retail.
by Jennifer Schmidt, Gerry Hough, Holly Briedis and Tyler Harris
Industry forecasts suggest that nearly 100
percent of growth in the US apparel market will
be omnichannel sales in the next three years.
70
Moreover, four in five customers shopping in stores
today browse the internet on their phones as they
go. Forward-looking brands have bought into this
reality and developed tailored digital proposi-
tions that complement and enhance their physical
oerings. In September 2019, McKinsey opened an
outlet in the Mall of America, the largest shopping
centre in the US. The objective was simple: to
test the eectiveness of new technologies in a live
customer environment.
Here is a vision for how stores in the future
might look. For the customer, cutting edge tools
create an immersive experience and aid deci-
sion-making on interactive devices. Smart mirrors
that use the latest in augmented reality help a
customer see what they will look like wearing the
product. Additionally, mobile capabilities provide
real-time access to product details and reviews via
near-field technology. For the store and its sta,
technology also underpins a new norm of selling,
operations and insight generation.
It will be possible to connect the full
customer journey using RFID tags, trac cameras
and automated inventory management. This will
drive productivity while gathering rich customer
pathing data that is compliant with personally
identifiable information (PII) standards. These
innovations can make a big dierence to associate
productivity and conversion — a client of visual-AI
company Syte, for example, saw a 12 percent
increase in basket size after installing mirrors
combining AR-capability with technology-ena-
bled recommendations. They stitched in-store
behaviour and external data sources to provide
targeted styling advice.
Customers using near-ield communication (NFC) hotspots to access
product information [without the need for app downloads]
51
A fully tech-driven in-store experience is
currently the exception rather than the rule but
early adopters have placed it high on the C-suite
agenda. Even direct-to-consumer brands are
believers in a tech-enabled physical environment.
ThirdLove, a “body-positive clicks-to-bricks
lingerie company,” recently opened a brick-
and-mortar Manhattan outlet paired with a
size-finding app.
71
In the Mall of America store,
the company is now exploring “the optimal level of
interaction between shoppers and sta” for these
new digitally integrated stores.
72
As industry participants consider the
“store of the future,” the phrase alone can be
evocative. Players at the cutting edge are increas-
ingly exploring a realm of technologies that
could one day become commonplace in the store.
These range from consumer-facing displays with
enhanced augmented reality applications that
layer personalised pricing or even décor into your
view, to operations-enabled devices like thermal
imaging technology that automatically detects
replenishment needs while determining patterns
in customer movement through space.
Stores packed with cameras, sensors
and data analytics seem like they may elicit
negative reactions from consumers concerned
about privacy. The truth is that most of today’s
technology can be implemented in very compliant
and engaging ways. This ultimately means that
brands can build a closer relationship with
customers and more ecient operations. These
technologies help drive more personalised or
localised assortments. Indeed, some retailers that
use omnichannel data to add local or trending
displays to their stores understand, that many
customers value shopping with a brand whose
assortment feels authentic to their geography
or neighbourhood. In the Mall of America store,
Kendra Scott created a colour bar based on the
highest selling jewellery gemstones in the mall’s
surrounding metro area.
In a world of choice, customer loyalty drives
economic advantage. In that context, technology
can be a critical enabler of the knowledge, empathy
and operational eciency needed to create a
winning edge with the customer. The key, as in
any relationship, is to go beyond simple pieces of
information (trac or purchase data, for example)
to a holistic, end-to-end view of the person at
the time. While this may require substantial
investment — and likely re-platforming of the tech
stack to accommodate larger volumes of data —
brands that opt not to engage may find themselves
left outside the room as relationships become
increasingly personalised. The good news is that
companies can test ideas before fully jumping
in via use cases, small-scale experiments and/or
through leveraging dedicated test spaces.
Research shows that more than half of
customers are likely to shop at a retailer that
allows them to use a shared cart across channels.
The shopping experience of the future — and
one that includes the store as an ever-important
channel — is high on both customers’ and retailers’
agendas.
73
Shoppers want to make informed
choices and have the confidence that they are
paying the best price, in any channel. Many of
these capabilities, like all evolving technology,
have become increasingly aordable and practical
to implement. When executed eectively, this can
turn stores into havens that make customers feel
at home — or give customers the freedom to engage
from home. Either way, it’s a win-win.
The authors are part of McKinsey and Company’s “The Modern Retail
Collective” team, a fully technology-enabled store which opened inside Mall
of America in September 2019. The store provides a dedicated and fully
supported arena for retailers to test and measure how innovations resonate
with consumers throughout an interconnected space.
McKinsey’s Modern Retail Collective in Mall of America
04. In the Neighbourhood
52
The State of Fashion 2020
05. SUSTAINABILITY FIRST
When it comes to the environment,
the fashion industry’s record is well documented.
Fashion accounts for 20 to 35 percent of
microplastic flows into the ocean and outweighs
the carbon footprint of international flights and
shopping combined.
74
75
It is no wonder, then,
that campaigners who target the industry as part
of Extinction Rebellion describe the industry’s
potential future impact as “catastrophic”.
76
Demand for change is being led by the young.
Activists such as 16-year-old Greta Thunberg
attract global headlines, bringing forward a call
to action to address environmental sustainability,
adding to the lexicon on the subject by using “crisis”
and “emergency” over “change” and “warming.”
Thunberg says, “It’s 2019. Can we all now call it what
it is: climate breakdown, climate crisis, climate
emergency, ecological breakdown, ecological crisis
and ecological emergency?” More than 7.6 million
were inspired to participate in the Global Climate
Strike in September.
In the fashion industry, scrutiny has
been building. Environmental protests at
London Fashion Week in September generated
significant press. Commentators have been
increasingly shedding light on the industry, from
the mainstream press to publications like Dana
Thomas’ Fashionopolis: The Price of Fast Fashion
and the Future of Clothes.
These activist movements are making
consumers increasingly aware of the environ-
mental impact of fashion. Some 66 percent of
respondents to a McKinsey US cohort survey
(and 75 percent of millennial respondents) say
they consider sustainability when making a
luxury purchase.
77
Still, consumers do not always
back words with actions. Only a minority are
willing to pay more for sustainable products —
only 31 percent of Gen-Z and just 12 percent of
baby boomers.
78
It is well-known that even consumers’
stated willingness to vote with their wallets
does not translate to the same degree in actual
The global fashion industry is extremely energy-
consuming, polluting and wasteful. Despite some
modest progress, fashion hasn’t yet taken its
environmental responsibilities seriously enough.
Next year, fashion players need to swap platitudes
and promotional noise for meaningful action and
regulatory compliance while facing up to consumer
demand for transformational change.
“It’s 2019. Can we all now call it
what it is: climate breakdown,
climate crisis, climate emergency,
ecological breakdown, ecological
crisis and ecological emergency?”
53
purchases of sustainable fashion. Closing this gap
and changing consumer behaviour is made even
more dicult because of a lack of clear information
and tools for the consumer. Consumers are unsure
what “sustainability” means or how to identify
sustainable brands.
79
A survey of corporate repre-
sentatives across over 100 European firms shows
consumers are often swayed by misinformation or
lack of information.
80
Still, as awareness has grown,
so has the quest for knowledge. Internet searches
for “sustainable fashion” tripled between 2016
and 2019.
81
“Nothing is black and white, unfortu-
nately… It’s huge shades of green, really. That
makes it very dicult because it lends itself very
easily to greenwashing and misunderstanding…
that can be quite confusing for the consumer,”
concedes Nina Marenzi, founder and director
of The Sustainable Angle, an organisation that
stages the London-based Future Fabrics Expo.
Industrial, governmental and international bodies
are increasingly on the front foot to close this gap
for consumers. In early 2019, ten UN organisations
launched the UN Alliance for Sustainable Fashion.
In June, France, a global leader in luxury fashion,
introduced a ban on the destruction of unsold
fashion goods (to be implemented by 2023), with
manufacturers and retailers obliged to donate,
reuse or recycle. The move was the first of its kind
in the world on a national level.
The German government in September
unveiled the Green Button — the world’s first
government sustainable textile label. The EU’s
Circular Economy action plan, meanwhile, aims to
ensure products can be repaired or recycled, with
textiles as a key priority.
All this activity is having an impact in now
bringing the environmental agenda to centre-stage.
At the G7 summit in August, Kering chief executive
François-Henri Pinault spearheaded French
President Emmanuel Macron’s new Fashion Pact,
aimed at reducing environmental impact. Mr Macron
said roughly 150 brands had joined that weekend,
with a further hundred joining since then.
82
83
Brands are taking action on other
fronts too. Many are making eorts to increase
sustainable options for consumers, or even make
it the new normal in the future. Zara this year
pledged to use 100 percent sustainable fabrics by
2025, joining H&M which earlier committed to
using 100 percent recycled or sustainable materials
by 2030, among a host of broader sustainability
commitments by the company.
84
85
Adidas has
committed to phasing out virgin polyester by 2024.
LVMH announced its own series of commitments
for the environment and biodiversity during Paris
Fashion Week in September, including an Animal-
based Raw Materials Sourcing Charter; the
Charter among other initiatives specifies a target
of 70 percent of the groups leather to be sourced in
Leather Working Group (LWG) certified tanneries,
up from 48 currently.
There is also increasing response to
consumer demand for newer business models
which tackle overconsumption, such as rental
and resale, as predicted in last year’s report
(“End of Ownership”). We expect this will
continue, admittedly still accounting for a low
share of the total market in 2020.
Digitally native brands are taking dierent
approaches. Everlane has committed to “radical
transparency” through its supply chain. On its
website it posts photographs of shop floors in its
supplier factories, gives a voice to factory workers
and shares price breakdowns.
86
Reformation
“Nothing is black and white,
unfortunately… It’s huge shades
of green, really. That makes it very
diicult because it lends itself
very easily to greenwashing and
misunderstanding… that can be
quite confusing for the consumer.”
05. Sustainability First
54
The State of Fashion 2020
made its first clothes exclusively from deadstock
materials, and on its website runs the tagline
“Being naked is the #1 most sustainable option —
we’re #2.”
There is movement among e-commerce
players too. Multi-brand retailer Asos and Global
Fashion Group’s The Iconic earlier this year
introduced search filters for recycled fabrics
.
Farfetch’s Conscious Edit targets sustainable
products, and Zalando has expanded its
sustainable oering.
While the absolute number of mass market
products made from sustainable materials remains
low, there has been a five-fold increase over the past
two years.
87
In some corners a materials revolution
is under way, with recycled and lab-created textiles
to the fore. [See next theme, Materials Revolution.]
“There is no sustainable material, per
se, because for everything you need a resource,”
says Marenzi. “It’s a matter of how [long] the
resourcecan stayin the [user] cycle, with the
least amount of impact [from] extractingand
processing,with end-of-life then being as easy as
possible — going back into the soil or being used
again for another purpose.”
“It is very complex [but] having a much
more vertical, integrated supply chain approach
[means] you are in full control of your materials;
the more vertical you are, the more you can
mitigate […] your impact on the oceans and
climate and biodiversity.”
According to Lidewij (Li) Edelkoort,
a trend forecaster and dean of hybrid studies
at Parsons School of Design in New York,
“material innovation is only one stitch in the
complex rebirth of fashion. Slowing down, stream-
lining production and editing collections are the
most important guidelines.”
A number of industry leaders have voiced
their commitment to sustainable oerings across
their product ranges, which will likely catalyse a
virtuous circle of awareness, considered spending
and progress. Mass-market players, meanwhile,
are continuing to work on reducing prices of
sustainable options which have traditionally been
priced at a premium. This will help a broader range
of consumers make more sustainable choices.
88
Despite all this activity, the industry has
a long way to go before achieving transformative
change. In fact, Global Fashion Agenda’s Pulse 2019
Update reveals progress slowed in the past year,
with most of the industry still not engaged.
89
There remains a pervasive lack of consumer trust,
amid accusations in some quarters of fashion
industry greenwashing using sustainability as a
marketing strategy without a significant positive
impact on the environment.
90
One controversial
activity is carbon osetting, by which brands pay
a third party to either capture carbon or avoid
emitting, without reducing their own carbon
footprint. While an important step in accelerating
decarbonisation, the practice in isolation is viewed
by some as an excuse to take the easy route.
Regulators are set to push harder in 2020,
and in some cases are already doing so. The UK’s
Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) warned
vegan fashion brand Matt & Nat over exaggeration
of its use of recycled materials. The Norwegian
Consumer Authority (CA) prompted H&M to
more clearly communicate to consumers about the
pollution it creates.
91
92
Looking ahead, we expect in 2020 to see
regulators continuing to raise standards and
Consumer Shifts
While the absolute number of
mass-market products made from
sustainable materials remains low,
there has been a ive-fold increase
over the past two years.
“Being naked is the #1 most
sustainable option — we’re #2.”
55
impose new rules and consequences. In addition,
we anticipate the media to increasingly take a
role in better educating and encouraging the
conscious consumer. Emboldened by these forces,
better-informed and more confident consumers
will seek out sustainable brands and develop their
awareness. Apps like Good On You and Buycott
are becoming a major part of the consumer’s
purchasing journey, and sources like the
Sustainable Apparel Coalition’s HIGG index, which
allows fashion players to assess their own sustaina-
bility, will be available to consumers.
93
Finally, some imperatives for brands.
Their primary focus should be on helping
customers consume fewer resources. One area
they can target is overproduction. Reduced supply,
combined with an ambition to reduce discounting,
can even have a positive impact on the bottom
line. Fashion players should consider fresh ways
to tackle transparency, both at point of sale and
across other touchpoints, understanding the
need both to educate and emotionally engage.
While a revolutionary notion for some, brands
at the forefront should also invest in the circular
economy, breaking the link between production
and revenue, back recycling and embrace
sustainable materials and technologies. One of the
most immediately important things they need to
do is take action to track and reduce environmental
impact, moving beyond transparency (one of our
2019 themes) to real action. That means setting
concrete (ambitious, but achievable) targets and
publishing roadmaps so consumers and investors
can hold them to account if targets are not met.
This would be a strong step towards one day seeing
collaborative sustainability roadmaps for the
entire industry, providing clarity to the innovators
and suppliers on the prerogatives for the future.
None of these imperatives are easy, but taken
together, they may finally tip the scale in favour
of making more environmentally sustainable
fashion a reality.
GEN Z
1996  2019
SOURCE: MCKINSEY NEW AGE OF THE CONSUMER US SURVEY 2019
BOOMER
1946  1964
12
17
GEN X
1965  1981
26
MILLENNIAL
1982  1995
05. Sustainability First
There remains a pervasive
lack of consumer trust, amid
accusations in some quarters of
fashion industry greenwashing
using sustainability as a
marketing strategy without a
signiicant positive impact on
the environment.
Exhibit 7:
Younger generations increasingly
state that they will pay more
for products that have the least
negative impact on the environment
% OF US CONSUMERS IN 2019 WHO WOULD PAY MORE
31
56
The State of Fashion 2020
For more than a year, designers at Patagonia
have been working on a dicult problem: how
to collect, sort and transform thousands of
irreparable old clothes into desirable items while
turning a profit.
In November 2019, Patagonia produced
around 10,000 jackets, sweaters and bags upcycled
from old garments for its ReCrafted line. While the
price point for the products will vary, the brand
is expecting to sell the garments at a level in line
with new items — ranging from a small bag ($27)
to down jackets ($327). ReCrafted debuted at the
opening of the brand’s Worn Wear store in
Boulder, Colorado.
The project turbo-charges long-stand-
ing eorts by designers to upcycle old clothes
and reduce the waste generated by the fashion
industry. Historically, such projects have largely
consisted of small-scale capsule collections
because working with old garments is complex and
dicult to scale.
“It’s really hard to work with old garments
at various stages of use and break down,” says,
Patagonia’s director of corporate development,
Alex Kremer, who oversaw the ReCrafted project.
“It takes a crazy amount longer; it’s a much more
daunting process to see a pile of jackets and to make
something out of them than out of a roll of fabric.”
If upcycling is a challenge for California-
based Patagonia, which has a long-standing track
record of operating at the forefront of eorts
to clean up the fashion industry, then it will be
even more dicult for the average apparel brand.
However, tackling the wider problem of
waste in the context of a more circular system
has become a priority for a growing number of
fashion companies.
The focus reflects both the scale of the
problem and the fact that tangible and measurable
solutions are now possible. According to the
Ellen MacArthur Foundation, the global fashion
industry produces about 53 million tonnes of fibre
every year. More than 70 percent of that ends up
in landfills or on bonfires. Less than one percent is
reused to make new clothes.
It’s an environmental impact issue that
consumers can easily understand, and one that
companies can demonstrate they are making
progress to tackle. Though waste reduction is by
no means simple, it can be easier to communicate
than eorts to reduce emissions or tackle water use
in obscure parts of the supply chain.
“Circularity is quite tangible,” says Sarah
In-Depth
The Future of Upcycling:
From Rags to Riches
As the fashion industry grapples with how to keep old clothes out of
landills, inding ways to scale long-standing upcycling initiatives oers
one near-term solution.
by Sarah Kent and M.C. Nanda
“It’s really hard to work with old
garments at various stages of use
and break down. It takes a crazy
amount longer; it’s a much more
daunting process to see a pile of
jackets and to make something out
of them than out of a roll of fabric.”
57
Needham, knowledge exchange manager at UAL,
London College of Fashion’s Centre for Sustainable
Fashion. “Taking steps towards recycling and
encouraging the circular economy is something
[brands] can grab hold of and make concrete steps
towards.”
Still, more ambitious solutions and
higher levels of investment are needed for waste
reduction. Heading into 2020 fashion companies
will need to leverage new technologies and grow
consumer appetite for upcycled or recycled clothes.
According to the 2019 survey of apparel
company chief procurement ocers by McKinsey,
increasing the use of recycled fibres is one of
four innovation-led disruptions likely to become
prevalent throughout the industry by 2025.
Signs of progress are on the horizon,
with a slew of companies already making eorts
to meet near-term targets like providing training
in sustainable and circular design to employees.
Elsewhere, new recycling technologies and new
business models focused on digital rental and
resale oer promising opportunities to extend the
life of old clothes.
In spite of the growing momentum, the
industry’s eorts to tackle its waste problems
are still at an early stage. Many of the solutions
currently in the works don’t go to the root of the
problem: the need to make and consume less.
That makes eorts to enhance the
long-standing practise of upcycling particular
compelling in fashion’s nascent war on waste.
Reworking existing garments or fabrics doesn’t
require virgin materials and, in most cases, it
doesn’t require cutting-edge technology either.
At its simplest, upcycling represents relatively
low-hanging fruit in fashion’s quest to reduce its
impact; huge amounts of waste are generated
in the manufacturing process and reducing
that can be relatively easy and bring significant
economic benefits.
“It’s a hierarchy,” explains Michael
Sadowski, research fellow at the World Resources
Institute. “You start with what’s in front of you and
what’s logistically and technically possible, and
then go on to focus on the hard stu.”
Particularly for younger brands that want
to operate in a more conscious manner, working
with ocuts, or excess materials, is also financially
compelling. “Throwing stu away in a landfill,
you’re also throwing away money,” says Jonathan
Cohen, whose namesake brand is introducing a
direct-to-consumer line of upcycled garments in
December 2019, made from their own deadstock.
It’s something bigger brands are looking
at too. For instance, Burberry has partnered with
luxury brand Elvis & Kresse to repurpose its leather
ocuts into handbags and other accessories.
To be sure, scaling such eorts requires
significant adjustments to the industry’s
traditional mode of operating, swapping out the
freedom of choice provided by virgin materials
for the creative challenge presented by limited
volumes or quirks and imperfections in the fabric
or ocuts available.
“Circularity is quite tangible,
taking steps towards recycling
and encouraging the circular
economy is something [brands]
can grab hold of and make
concrete steps towards.”
In spite of the growing momentum,
the industry’s eorts to tackle
its waste problems are still at an
early stage. Many of the solutions
currently in the works don’t go to
the root of the problem: the need
to make and consume less.
05. Sustainability First
58
The State of Fashion 2020
59
“You just have to disconnect from a precon-
ception of an existing supply chain model and
really think creatively around what’s happening,”
says Graeme Raeburn, performance director at
London-based fashion brand Raeburn, which has
built a business out of reworking surplus fabrics
and garments.
There are logistical challenges too.
Fashion’s sprawling and opaque supply chains
mean that identifying and sourcing deadstock
fabrics is not always straightforward. Often times
material will sit in far-flung factories with little
visibility on what is available. When Cohen made
the decision to find ways to use his ocuts, he
first had to take time tracing his supply chain and
negotiating with his mills. “It was like starting the
relationship all over again with your fabric mills,”
says Cohen.
Industrial design studio and innovation
consultancy Alexander Taylor is planning to
launch a brand next year using leftover fabric
sourced from a single manufacturer in China.
Simply understanding the volume and
quality of materials available has proven a
laborious process that involved combing through
stacks of catalogues and physical swatches.
Upcycling complete garments is significant-
ly more challenging than upcycling fabrics.
To make it work, brands need to rethink the way
they design clothes and roll out take-back schemes
that give them access to post-consumer waste.
At American fashion brand Eileen Fisher,
designers are already looking to rework the
materials they use when making new garments to
make it easier to keep clothes in play when they
get to the end of their life. Fabrics that contain
a wide variety of fibres can complicate the life
cycle of a garment. “That’s a problem that we take
[to] the design team and say, ‘Well is there an
alternative to this fabric?’ Do you know how can
we simplify it?’” says Shona Quinn, the brand’s
sustainability leader.
In many ways companies like Patagonia are
uniquely positioned to lead such eorts because
of the years they have already spent working to
reduce waste. The pioneering brand has a well-es-
tablished take-back and resale programme already
in place, providing the company with a sophisticat-
ed infrastructure to sort and process old clothes.
Even so, upcycling is far from simple.
When you’re dealing with waste as your raw
material, you have less control over what comes
through the supply chain. A red jacket from twenty
years ago might be a completely dierent shade
from one produced two years ago, making it dicult
to pair the two when constructing a new garment.
Equally, while a roll of fabric can be cut to any shape
the designer likes, there’s a limited amount that can
be achieved with a size XS jacket.
Despite the many challenges, Patagonia
still views upcycling as a model that others in the
industry can follow — albeit one that will attract a
limited number of followers. “I just can’t imagine
that in 10 years or 20 years the flaws in this model
will be acceptable to people as a whole,” says Vincent
Stanley, Patagonia’s director of philosophy.
“I just can’t imagine that in
10 years or 20 years the laws in
this model will be acceptable to
people as a whole.”
05. Sustainability First
Sorting by color. Photo: Kern Ducote
60
The State of Fashion 2020
FASHION
SYSTEM
61
In the past, fibre technology and materials
science were confined to specialists, sports and
outdoor players, and the margins of the fashion
industry. But no longer. Some of fashion’s biggest
brands have joined the new “materials revolution,”
characterised by rising investment, radical experi-
mentation and a growing commitment
to sustainability.
Today’s spirit of innovation is reflected in
a growing lexicon of synthetic and re-engineered
fibres. Bio-fabricated leather, biodegradable
textiles, closed-loop recycling and e-textiles are
buzzwords that are fast entering the manufactur-
ing mainstream. Moreover, they are contributing
to an enhanced design palette and a range of new
commercial opportunities.
94
Companies around the world are set to file
eight times as many fibre innovation patent applica-
tions in 2019 as they did in 2013, based on McKinsey
analysis (see Exhibit 8). The sharp rise suggests fibre
innovation is moving decisively from the margins
to the mainstream. Industry insiders are also
coming around to that view: 45 percent of apparel
companies surveyed by McKinsey are looking to
integrate more innovative bio-based materials
95
and over 67 percent of sourcing executives state that
the use of innovative sustainable materials will be
important for their company.
96
Some broad areas of innovation are
showing exceptional promise. Chip-containing
fibres, for example, are gaining traction. Brands
including New Balance, VF Corporation and 3M
are experimenting with leather alternatives such
as Piñatex, which is made of pineapple leaf fibres.
These alternatives are attracting attention from
companies including H&M, Hugo Boss and Chanel.
Alongside these examples, a range of new ideas are
being trialled that will push the envelope on both
sustainability and functionality.
We see three key drivers of accelerating
activity: shifting consumer sentiment (often
reflecting rising environmental awareness),
regulation in areas such as e-textiles and accelerat-
ing investment in research and development.
Consumers are prioritising the
environment in the choices they make, and some
people are willing to pay more for products that
have less negative impact. Younger cohorts in
particular hold strong beliefs, with a third of
Generation Z (born after mid-1990s) in the US
saying they will pay for sustainability compared to
around one in 10 baby boomers.
97
When it comes
06. MATERIALS REVOLUTION
Fashion brands are exploring alternatives to today’s
standard materials, with key players focused on
more sustainable substitutes that include recently
rediscovered and re-engineered old favourites as well
as high-tech materials that deliver on aesthetics and
function. We expect R&D will increasingly focus on
materials science for new ibres, textiles, inishes and
other material innovations to be used at scale.
62
The State of Fashion 2020
to innovation, consumers are also keen for their
fashion choices to reflect their digitally enhanced
lifestyles.
Secondly, lawmakers are working hard
to ensure the fashion and textile industries
comply with standards expected by consumers
in other aspects of their lives. As discussed in
Sustainability First, the EU’s Circular Economy
Package introduces ambitious targets for recycling
waste, including textile waste.
98
The EU also
finances research into textile recycling. Its
Trash2Cash project involves 17 partners across 10
countries, aiming to find ecient ways to separate
mixed fibres.
99
Finally, brands around the world are
reacting to rising demand for low-impact alterna-
tives that are functional or sustainable or both.
Chinese manufacturer Huafu in March 2019
reported a sharp rise in requests for such alterna-
tives from local brands over the previous year.
“There’s a lot of clever companies that are
starting to blend materials with [bast fibres like]
hemp, or ramie, or [flax for] linen, for example,”
says Nina Marenzi, founder and director of The
Sustainability Angle, an organisation that stages
the London-based Future Fabrics Expo. “These
are all blends that lend themselves really well and
lower the [environmental] impact immediately.”
Lidewij (Li) Edelkoort, a trend forecaster
and dean of hybrid studies at Parsons School of
Design in New York, believes that the reinvention
of ancient fibres is one of the most promising
innovations. “Japan is working on a smaller scale
with local producers at the development of nettle,
ramie and mulberry paper yarns. The ideal is to
make compostable clothes,” she says.
A rising number of companies, meanwhile,
are working in collaboration with start-ups
or peers. Acabada ProActiveWear and Devan
Chemicals are partnering to create products
from hemp, which requires less water and fewer
chemicals than cotton.
100
Chanel in 2018 launched
a new strategy to research and develop materials
and leather generated by agri-food industries.
The company also invested in start-up Evolved By
Nature, which is working on creating sustainable
silk.
101
Companies including Bolt Threads, Orange
Fibre and Modern Meadow are developing
pioneering biotechnologies that create less waste
and use fewer natural resources.
“Silks and cellulose will certainly become
the biotech focus,” predicts Edelkoort. “Hopefully
this will become a staple of available high-tech
materials in the future. However one needs to
understand that clothes-making is a deep rooted
tradition and hasn’t changed much since the
Bronze Age [so] developments [can] take an awful
long time.”
Elsewhere, she predicts that “the recent
revolution of 3D printing on textiles will have a
very big market for embellished textiles and will
replace the 3D printing of clothes.”
In the e-textiles area, researchers are using
3D printing to make materials that can harvest
and store electricity as well as fulfil fashion
demands.
102
Japan’s Xenoma has gone a step
further, developing “e-skin” that monitors fitness
and health with Printed Circuit Fabric (PCF)
technology.
103
This kind of technology is likely to
be the basis of the next generation of sportswear.
The global smart-textile market is expected to
grow from the current $93 billion to $475 billion by
2025 (including fashion, but also other industries,
e.g., medical and military).
104
Google in September
2019 released its Cit-e backpack in collaboration
with Saint Laurent.The pack’s left strap contains a
computer that connects with an app on the owner’s
“There [are] a lot of clever
companies that are starting to
blend materials with [bast ibres
like] hemp, or ramie, or [lax for]
linen, for example.”
Fashion System
63
phone. Users can use simple hand motions to get
news, weather or even a selfie.
105
Some companies are reinforcing direct
investment with indirect strategies. H&M, for
example, is partnering with HKRITA (Hong Kong
Research Institute of Textiles and Apparel) to
operate a pilot hydrothermal recycling plant in
Hong Kong to recycle fibre blends.
106
Blends are the
most common type of textile and remain largely
unrecyclable, so the project represents a major
innovation in the space. Several players are also
supporting start-ups through awards programmes
(e.g., H&M, Kering) and accelerators (e.g., Asics).
“Bigger luxury houses should have R&D
and smaller brands should cooperate with them,
profiting from their scale and finance. The amount
of companies and start-ups is still small compared
to the challenge [but] the field is too small for all
the students dreaming to work in this direction.
[That’s] why the homemade solutions with algae,
mushrooms and fruit waste are so popular among
young designers,” Edelkoort says.
In addition to updating regulation,
some governments are playing a direct role
in encouraging and funding research. The
EU is set to oer €21 million ($23.5 million)
of funding to support sustainable bio-based
textiles and circular business models.
107
The US
Department of Defence-backed Fibres and Textiles
Manufacturing Innovation Institute is researching
new technologies to impregnate fibres and yarns
with integrated circuits, LEDs, solar cells and
other capabilities.
108
The materials revolution is bringing
fundamental change both to the raw materials
of the fashion industry and the way in which
it operates. We expect over the coming year to
see more collaboration between start-ups, fibre
companies, manufacturers, fashion brands and
retailers. Rather than single products or special
lines, these innovations may increasingly play out
across a company’s wider activities. Companies
will build investment centres of excellence and
hire product technologists to ensure they remain
at the cutting edge. We also expect more vertical
integration, with retailers and brands expanding
in-house roles for tasks formerly assigned to the
supply chain. Finally, functionality will take
centre stage, with fibre companies working even
harder to reflect digitally enhanced lifestyles and
changing consumer behaviours.
06. Materials Revolution
Exhibit 8:
Annual patent filings in textile
innovation are projected to increase
8x from 2013 to 2019
1
GLOBAL FILINGS PER YEAR
SOURCE: MCKINSEY STRATEGY AND CORPORATE FINANCE S&CF GROWTH
ANALYTICS, BASED ON PATENT DATA
1
BASED ON BIOTEXTILE AND SMARTTEXTILE FILINGS; 2018 ESTIMATE AND 2019
FORECAST GIVEN LAG IN PATENT FILING DATA AVAILABILITY
2013
95
121
288
410
433
583
838
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F
8x
64
The State of Fashion 2020
Fashion’s Biological Revolution
The fashion and beauty industries will beneit from a biological revolution
that could transform value chains, change society and potentially mitigate
pressure on the environment. As scientiic breakthroughs unfold, we expect
more partnerships between large brands and start-ups, deeper research,
and increasing commercialisation of these ground-breaking innovations.
by Michael Chui, Matthias Evers, Alice Zheng, Anneke Maxi Pethö-Schramm and Maliha Khan
In-Depth
Several trends in science and technology
are powering a biological revolution helping us
improve our understanding of biological processes,
and then engineer them. Driving this revolution are
advances in omics, an umbrella term that covers
the measurement of intracellular components
such as DNA, RNA and proteins. With the ability
to engineer these components comes the ability
to edit human, plant and animal DNA in a basic
biology lab. At the same time, interest is beginning
to mount in studying the microbiome — microbes
that live on and in the body that collectively have
more genetic material than the human genome.
Beyond omics and molecular technologies, the
ability to “bioprint” structures with cells and grow
animal or other cells in a petri dish continues to
develop. In all these areas, there are potential uses
in the fashion and beauty industry.
In the case of DNA sequencing, falling costs
have been a game changer. The cost of sequencing
the first human genome was almost $3 billion;
in 2019 it cost less than $1,000, and that could be
shaved to less than $100 in a decade. No wonder
annual venture capital for genomics has risen by a
factor of 10 over the past decade to reach $4 billion
in 2018.
A new frontier for fashion textiles
Numerous smaller companies are now
experimenting with aspects of the biological
revolution. California-based Genomatica and
Mango Materials have engineered microbes to
ferment renewable feedstocks and methane gas
into biopolymers. The latter uses waste methane
to produce PHA, a polymer that is then spun
into thread. US-based Bolt Threads, Germany’s
AM Silk and Japanese textile research company
Spiber have used fermentation techniques to
engineer artificial silk proteins and fibres. Spiber
first joined forces withThe North Facein 2015
to develop a special Moon Parka prototypefrom
artificial spider silk. The parka did not make it to
market, but four years later the companies created
a follow-up using a new textile (Qmonos) made of
synthetic fermented proteins.
109
US-based Modern
Meadow developed Zoa, a biological, lab-originated
alternative to leather made from collagen protein.
110
In 2018, Modern Meadow signed an agreement
with Evonik, a chemical company specialising in
microbial fermentation, with a view to moving into
commercial production.
There is also significant innovation in
the supply chain as companies use cutting-edge
technology to create cleaner and more ecient
processes. For instance, Algalife and Faber Futures
use genetically-engineered microbes to produce
environmentally-friendly dye. Faber Futures
lab-engineered pigment producing bacteria
(“coelicolor”) from which textiles take on rich
blue, purple and red tones depending on the pH
65
06. Materials Revolution
of the environment. Germany-based Algalife is
doing similar work to engineer the DNA of algae to
develop pigments and combat pollution caused by
dyeing processes.
Omics and molecular technologies are also
being used to help companies recycle end-of-life
textiles. Los Angeles-based Ambercycle has
genetically engineered microbes to digest polymers
from old textiles and convert them into polymers
that can be spun into yarns. The company, which
says it is “building an ecosystem for closed loop
textile production,” won a €250,000 ($279,000)
grant from the H&M Global Change Award in 2016.
Currently, less than 1 percent of the material used
to produce clothing is recycled into new apparel, an
annual loss estimated at $100 billion globally.
111
The production of textiles in a closed-loop system
would mean that waste is fed back into the manu-
facturing process and that products themselves
are biodegradable. While the impact is currently
limited to a few companies, it holds great potential
to limit some of the waste produced by the apparel
industry in the future.
Going forwards, omics and molecular
technologies could also play a role in smart textiles.
A collaboration between MIT Media Lab and New
Balance has made live bacteria that naturally react
to moisture and produce a breathable “second
skin” suit. US-based start-up Tandem Repeat is
producing fibre based on squid genes. The genetic
code in the material is focused on healing, enabling
garments to repair themselves. The material
also acts as glue, which minimises microfibres
shredding during washing and reduces the flow of
microplastics into the oceans.
Biological beauty innovations
A recent innovation is direct-to-consum-
er microbiome and DNA testing for personal
wellness and beauty insights. Based in Santa
Clara, California, Viome oers at-home gut testing
and analyses the human microbiome (consisting
of hundreds of trillions of microorganisms) to
establish links between gut bacteria and skin
conditions such as acne and eczema. San Diego-
based Pathway Genomics provides direct-to-con-
sumer DNA Tests for skin traits and procedure
options such as response to sun exposure.
Skincare brand Mother Dirt, a unit of AOBiome,
is researching live probiotics products to restore
essential skin bacteria. With the cost of microbe
DNA sequencing falling, there is potential for
improved and personalised products and services
in this area. While not yet commercialised, gene
editing techniques could make a mark in the beauty
industry, enhancing interventions in areas such as
hair loss and skin aging.
Major brands are expanding their activities
in the beauty business, often through partnerships.
In 2017, Johnson & Johnson invested in probiotic
cosmetics specialist S-Biomedic. In 2019, L’Oréal
announced a tie-up with San Francisco-based
uBiome to research skin microbiome (uBiome filed
for bankruptcy in September 2019 but this was not
related to its scientific work).
Looking Ahead
While the pace of adoption of these
innovative technologies over the next 30 years is
heavily dependent on market factors, regulation
and consumer acceptance, we expect more partner-
ships between large brands and start-ups, deeper
research, and increasing commercialisation of
these ground-breaking innovations. With rapid
advances in science and new funding pouring
in, developments in the biological revolution are
exciting and worth tracking for the fashion and
beauty industry. Companies that pride themselves
in being at the forefront of innovation should
ensure they take steps to remain at the cutting edge
of this exciting research with huge future potential.
This work is part of a larger body of research on the biological revolution
by the McKinsey Global Institute, due for publication in spring 2020.
The McKinsey Global Institute is the business and economics research
arm of McKinsey, whose mission is to help leaders in the commercial, public
and social sectors develop a deeper understanding of the evolution of the
global economy.
66
The State of Fashion 2020
07. INCLUSIVE CULTURE
Consumers and employees are putting increasing
pressure on fashion companies to become proactive
advocates of diversity and inclusion, rather than
being reactive laggards. More companies will elevate
diversity and inclusion as a higher priority, embed it
across the organisation and hire dedicated leadership
roles, but their initiatives will also come under
increasing scrutiny in terms of sincerity and results.
For many years, “diversity” in fashion
meant occasionally putting a non-white face on a
magazine cover. Diversity was often more about
visual impact than being representative. Today,
these token nods to diversity are beginning to
give way to real inclusivity as the industry moves
from eye-catching imagery towards meaningful
change in the workforce. This is motivated by
consumers demanding that companies’ values
reflect their own, and by employees and stakehold-
ers clamouring for change.
We expect companies will start to
broadcast their diversity credentials loudly and
proudly, with chief diversity and inclusion ocers
becoming the rule rather than the exception.
Customers will keep a keen eye on whether these
initiatives are style over substance, rewarding
those who embed change throughout their organ-
isations and calling out, shaming or boycotting
those who don’t.
In consumer-facing aspects of the business,
representation is finally improving. There were
more than twice as many models of colour on the
runways of the autumn 2019 fashion shows as
there were for spring 2015 — up from 17 percent
to almost 40 percent.
112
One powerful example
was Gen-Z superstar Zendaya’s collaboration with
Tommy Hilfiger, which used only black models
at its Paris launch — 59 of them, of dierent sizes
and ages. Rihanna’s diverse show for her lingerie
line Savage x Fenty was lauded by the industry as
a riposte to competitor Victoria’s Secret long-pro-
jected homogeneous view of beauty. Capsule
collections are also visibly embracing diversity:
Asos has released three collaboration collections
with GLAAD, giving the LGBTQ acceptance organ-
isation 100 percent of profits.
113
In an industry that has often fallen
back on “artistic licence” to justify its choice of
homogeneous visual imagery, that is no longer an
excuse that works. Consumers today increasingly
express their disdain if diversity is not represented
or considered. Victoria’s Secret’s long refusal, until
recently, to use transgender models because,
There were more than twice as
many models of colour on the
runways of the autumn 2019
fashion shows as there were for
spring 2015 — up from 17 percent
to almost 40 percent.
67
to quote the chief marketing ocer “the show is a
fantasy,” is one well-known example. Consumer
backlash can be swift and brutal, often resulting in
changes to corporate policies. After the PR crisis
related to Gucci’s “blackface” jumper, for example,
the brand invested $10 million into a programme
that aims to encourage internal diversity and
inclusion.
114
The impact of mistakes and misjudgements
in this area is not just felt on social media. Almost
two-thirds of consumers are self-proclaimed
“belief-driven buyers” who will choose, switch,
avoid or boycott a brand based on its stand on
societal issues — a statistic that holds broadly true
across markets as diverse as China, Brazil, the US
and Germany.
115
And it’s not just what they buy,
it’s where they buy it: more than half of 21-to-27-
year-olds in the US believe that retailers have a
responsibility to address wider social issues with
regards to diversity.
116
Beyond its workforce, the ultimate visible
expression of a company’s commitment to
diversity and inclusion is its products. Challenger
brands are already launching products that cater to
underserved demographics, from adaptive fashion
brands such as IZ Adaptive, to Good American,
which oers jeans in a wide range of tailored sizes;
from the growing number of modest clothing
brands aimed at Muslim women to trans-friendly
lingerie brands such as London-based Carmen
Liu Lingerie.
Some incumbent brands are recognising
that these companies are carving out profitable
niches and are responding accordingly.
Anthropologie, for example, has launched
Anthropologie in sizes from 00P to 26W, while
Tommy Hilfiger launched a line of adaptive
clothing for children with disabilities and later
added adult apparel. With the adaptive-clothing
market estimated to reach almost $400 billion
by 2026, more high-street brands are launching
adaptive-clothing ranges, including Zappos and
Target.
117
If further motivation is needed, while
society certainly expects greater representation
of dierence, there is also a strong economic case
for diversity (which, as we’ll see later holds true
within companies too). In the US, for example, the
buying power of people of colour is growing signif-
icantly faster than that of the white population.
118
The implication for fashion players is that sales
rise significantly as more customers feel visibly
represented and aligned to the brand in terms of
shared values.
However, if companies are to parade their
diversity credentials, they need to make sure they
are genuine and deep-rooted. In other words, the
fashion industry needs to live the message, not
just parrot it. That means putting as much if not
more focus on the internal organisation as on their
models’ skin colour.
There is substantial room for improvement.
A New York Times article recently called out
Adidas, whose employees criticised the company
for a lack of diversity when they realised that less
than 5 percent of the workforce at its US head-
quarters identified as black. Nike is among others
who have also now come under fire.
119
“Examine
fashion’s underlying power structure, what you
find is male, cis-gendered whitewashing,” wrote
Jason Campbell in an op-ed for The Business of
Fashion. “Data is limited, but a close look at the
executive committees at major fashion companies
shows that they are packed with white men.”
Some companies are taking positive action.
LVMH has pledged equal gender representation for
executives by 2020, while Nordstrom claims it has
Almost two-thirds of consumers
are self-proclaimed “belief-driven
buyers” who will choose, switch,
avoid or boycott a brand based on
its stand on societal issues.
07. Inclusive Culture
68
The State of Fashion 2020
achieved equal pay for employees of all genders and
races and is close to approaching equal representa-
tion. Public announcements of such initiatives may
seem self-aggrandising, but today’s belief-driven
customers look beyond the glossy imagery to
decide if a brand’s values match their own.
Some of the industry’s most recognised
players, such as Chanel, Gucci and H&M, have
hired executives devoted to diversity to show
their commitment, but employee training and
full integration across functions still lags across
the industry. A 2019 US fashion industry report
revealed that only 56 percent of respondents said
they had taken a professional class or workshop
related to inclusion and diversity.
120
Making diversity the norm, rather than a
special initiative, will ultimately have the biggest
impact on corporate culture. Consider gender and
ethnic representation in leadership positions.
Women are overrepresented in the industry with
more than two-thirds of fashion house employees
being women in 2018, yet once you move up to the
C-suite, this number drops to less than a third.
This is still well above the global average of 14
percent, but parity seems a distant dream.
121
Similarly, there are only a handful of black
creative directors, like Olivier Rousteing and Virgil
Abloh, at the helm of high-profile luxury fashion
houses, and there are scant few C-suite executives
of colour to be found anywhere in the industry.
It is evident that while there is some progress
across the industry, there remain bastions where
progress is slow, particularly in creative leadership,
decision-making and technical roles, from
creative directors and business unit heads to chief
operating ocers and chief technology ocers.
“If industry leaders need motivation
beyond the moral imperative and the positive
impact on creativity, our research has built the
business case for diversity,” says Vivian Hunt
DBE, managing partner for McKinsey in the UK
and Ireland. “Diversity is correlated with superior
company economic performance, a finding which
is reinforced year-on-year.” Recent McKinsey
research into the impact of diversity on organi-
sations shows that companies ranked in the top
quartile for gender diversity in their executive
teams were 21 percent more likely to have
above-average profitability than companies in the
bottom quartile, but also 27 percent more likely to
have industry-leading performance on longer-term
value creation. For ethnic and racial diversity, top
quartile companies were 33 percent more likely to
outperform national industry peers.
122
“Combining
an inclusion and diversity strategy with the core
imperatives of a business means that inclusive
leadership really does lead to inclusive growth,”
continues Hunt.
In 2020, visible expressions and public
statements of diversity and inclusion will be more
frequent, and companies will not be shy about
sharing them. But they will also be vocal about
their broader commitment to diversity and will
be held to account by employees and customers.
Fashion players should articulate their own
business case for diversity while having a clear
understanding of how much better diverse teams
are across functions, from customer insight and
product innovation, to marketing and digital.
Chief diversity ocers will become more common,
better resourced and further empowered, laying
out ambitious roadmaps for initiatives such as
Fashion System
“If industry leaders need
motivation beyond the moral
imperative and the positive
impact on creativity, our research
has built the business case for
diversity. Diversity is correlated
with superior company economic
performance, a inding which is
reinforced year-on-year.”
69
Exhibit 9:
More than half of fashion
employees do not think their
current employer’s leadership team
is racially diverse
% OF RESPONDENTS TO “I WOULD CONSIDER MY
CURRENT EMPLOYER’S LEADERSHIP TEAM AS RACIALLY
DIVERSE”
SOURCE: BOF FASHION EMPLOYEE SURVEY 2019
DISAGREE
AGREE
52
31
17
workforce training, strategies to improve diversity
in key creative and corporate roles, and improving
inclusion-related indicators.
The core business must own the diversity
and inclusion agenda beyond the chief diversity
ocer, with inequality in the workforce addressed
by eorts to de-bias recruitment and advancement
processes, provide sponsorship and leadership
development programmes for diverse talent,
ensure the workplace caters for employees of all
genders, races and abilities, and by promoting
equal pay and opportunities. In a female-dom-
inated industry, average representation will be
insucient as a target; businesses should use
cascade targets to increase representation in
specific areas of the business, with managers held
to account while being supported in meeting these
targets. Overall, companies should consider how
to transform their organisations to create a truly
inclusive culture for employees and consumers,
eschewing a skin-deep veneer of change for
profound and lasting reform.
07. Inclusive Culture
Model dance on the runway at the Tommy Hiliger TommyNow fall runway show at the Apollo Theatre in New York City.
Angela Weiss/AFP/Getty Images
NEUTRAL
70
The State of Fashion 2020
After modest progress and some
high-profile failures, the fashion
industry has begun to realise
that diversity and inclusion needs
to be addressed at the C-level.
Several companies have hired
chief diversity ocers, who handle
internal matters like monitoring
hiring practices and advancement
while scrutinising public-facing
representation across marketing
and design.
Someone who can share first-
hand experience on how diversity
executives operate is Annie Wu,
the first-ever global leader of
diversity and inclusion at H&M
Group. Wu was appointed to the
position in early 2018 after H&M
had a misstep of its own, receiving
widespread criticism for choosing
a young black model to pose in
a “Coolest Monkey in the Jungle”
sweatshirt. Her remit reflects
the scale and complexity of the
challenge ahead. Delivering real
change through a unified strategy
for eight dierent brands across
a vast corporation that employs
more than 120,000 people (FTE
equivalent) and operates 4,900
stores across 73 international
markets, is no easy feat.
H&M Group’s Annie Wu reveals the
challenges of delivering change after
a crisis and the need for companies
to streamline existing diversity and
inclusion initiatives into a unified
framework before tailoring the global
strategy to each market region.
— by Chavie Lieber
Annie Wu
Global Leader for Inclusion and Diversity,
H&M Group
Executive Interview
71
BoF: What have been the hard
lessons you’ve had to learn?
The hardest one has been under
-
estimating how hard change is,
and especially change in people’s
behaviours. It’s so easy to under-
stand the topic, versus actually
putting things into action.
Having to change your behaviour
is really, really hard for people.
That’s why I always say that this
is a journey.
What have been the most
eective ways you’ve been
able to execute change?
You always have to get personal.
When you’re talking about
diversity, it can get very high-lev
-
el and fluy. But everyone has
experienced exclusion in their
life. This role is a lot [about] influ-
encing people and their mindsets,
and so making it personal to
them has worked really well. You
also need to be super analytical
and can get into those numbers.
Until you really have facts in
front of you, for a basis of deci-
sion-making, it’s really hard to
get the message through.
What is the group’s overall
diversity and inclusion
strategy look like?
Our strategy has three pillars:
people, business and community.
For ‘people’; we talk about
everyone across our entire
value chain, and that goes from
suppliers [and] employees [to]
our customers. ‘Business’ is how
we actually form our teams and
what products we present to the
customers, and ‘community’ is
the impact that we have, or hope
to have, in the communities that
we operate in.
But how do you implement
the strategy across such a
large company?
It takes a lot of coordination
between all the dierent
functions. It’s a lot of cross
collaborative work. I try to
make sure the topic of inclusion
and diversity is embedded in
our processes, in our decision
making, in everything that we’re
doing. [Previously], there were
so many dierent programmes
and initiatives and policies going
on across the organisation. We
had a global [HR] policy, we had
dierent countries working on
very dierent things that relate
to inclusion and diversity. We
also had our sustainability
department; working on what
[went] into their pillar of fair
and equal [rights] for being an
employer and how we work
with our supply chain. [So] it’s
really pulling all of these things
together and making it intention
-
al with one voice.
What about delivering
consistency in terms of
deploying the strategy across
the group’s eight dierent
brands?
What we’ve been doing this last
year is meeting with each of the
managing directors of all of our
brands and making sure that this
strategy is embedded in the DNA
of [each] brand, and also the goals
that they’re trying to achieve.
Does the H&M Group have a
specific definition for how it
sees diversity?
Our definition of diversity is that
there is no definition of diversity.
What diversity means to you [is]
in your local context. If we’re
talking about a more homo
-
geneous society, like Sweden,
for example, then diversity
is actually [focused more on]
gender and not [as much] about
race. Then you go to countries
like South Africa, like the US,
like the UK, where diversity is
about race and ethnicity. So we
try to cover as many of these
perspectives as possible. There
are lots of dierent definitions
of diversity and we don’t want to
stick to just one specific one.
So your diversity goals vary
by region?
Yes. Because we are present in so
many dierent markets around
the world, we want to make
sure that this resonates with
everybody in their own way. In
India, for example, we want to
really push women in leadership
roles [so our] Indian teams are
looking at their demographics
and seeing how to [achieve this in
their] succession planning for the
coming years. In South Africa, we
know that youth unemployment
is super high in the cities [where]
we have our stores [so] we really
sought out and collaborate now
with [relevant] organisations
since we know that we can hire a
lot of them in our store.
Can you elaborate more on
why it’s important to break
this down regionally, as
opposed to globally?
07. Inclusive Culture
“You always have to get personal.
When you’re talking about diversity, it can
get very high-level and fluy. But everyone
has experienced exclusion in their life.”
72
The State of Fashion 2020
At the end of the day, we want to
reflect, respect and relate to our
customers everywhere around
the globe. In order to do that, we
need to recognise the way that
someone shops or even dresses
and looks at clothing [can be]
very dierent in South Korea
compared to Sweden, compared
to South Africa. If we don’t have
the knowledge of where those
decisions are being made, then
we need to find it, and have them
live it. We need to understand
culture, history and diversity
around the world. The broader
we would like our customer base
to be, the broader our products
also have to be.
How do diversity initiatives
work in terms of designing the
actual product?
We look into who are our
designers [are], who makes up the
teams that are designing these
products, all the way from design
to marketing to campaigns, to
how we even set them up visually
in our stores, either online or in
store. It’s really the make-up of
the teams and looking at those
demographics and baselines.
How can companies measure
their progress on diversity?
That’s a burning question
for all of us. It’s really hard to
measure, especially on a global
aggregate level. Gender and age,
I would say, are probably the
only demographics that we can
aggregate globally, because local
laws play a lot into it. In Sweden,
[for example] you’re actually not
allowed to capture ethnicity and
race, and now in Europe, with
GDPR (the European Union’s
data privacy regulation), getting
demographics is getting harder
and harder.
So how does the H&M Group
measure its progress?
We’ve put out some ambitions;
one of them is 100 percent of our
employees feel that they have an
equal opportunity, and we hope
to measure that through our
employee engagement surveys.
We’re also working right now on
community impact and percep
-
tion. We’re trying to see through
our net promoter score our
customers’ perception of who we
are. Net promoter scores are also
very good at gauging where we
stand in dierent markets.
But what are some concrete
examples of company practices
that ensure diverse hiring?
Externally, we need to look
broader and beyond. It could
be schools that our interns are
coming from, to dierent places
that we’re placing ads. There’s so
many dierent ways that we can
recruit from a broader pool than
what we’ve been doing, because
like any company, I think a lot
comes from referrals, which is
great, but we need to also make
sure that we are bringing in
people that will challenge us.
How else do you think the
fashion industry could be
more diverse?
We still have a long way to go;
all the dierent aspects of
diversity from body types, body
shapes, to us bringing in more
diversity from all over parts of
the globe. Fashion is still very
western driven.
You were born in Taiwan,
moved to the US when you
were six and grew up there.
How did you land this role at
the H&M Group?
I started in our New York oce
almost seven years ago, as a
labour employment attorney.
I worked with a lot of labour and
employment issues and then
an opportunity came up for me
to move to the Stockholm head
oce to work in our global HR
department three years ago.
I headed our group employee
relations team, and that covered
the inclusion and diversity
piece worldwide. I assumed this
position in January of last year.
What do you think it is about
the fashion industry now that’s
finally galvanising change?
We understand that the
customers want us to change.
They want to see themselves
when they go into a store. We
used to tell the customer what
they wanted. [Now] it’s the
customer telling us what they
want, and we have to listen.
This interview has been edited and condensed.
Executive Interview
73
08. CROSSBORDER CHALLENGERS
Established fashion brands and retailers will face
growing competition from new Asian challengers, as
manufacturers and SMEs step out of their traditional
roles and sell directly to global consumers. Expect
greater competition from hitherto unknown players
in the Asian supply chain who design popular items
to sell at aordable prices using cross-border
e-commerce platforms.
Asian apparel manufacturers have been in
competition with their western counterparts for
decades. As operational capabilities advanced across
Asia, the first stage in their evolution was from
simple “cut, trim and make” facilities to full package
manufacturing. The centre of gravity soon shifted
east as Asian producers gained a greater share of the
global market.
The next phase saw some manufacturers
move up the value chain to develop in-house design
capabilities, while others started selling branded
products of their own for the local market (OBM
companies). However, Asian manufacturing is now
ready for its final stage of metamorphosis, which
will see some ambitious players compete in a whole
new arena.
Empowered by the rise of e-commerce
cross-border platforms, more Asian manufacturers
and SMEs will be able to export their goods easily
and aordably, directly to shoppers. This new
generation of DTC (direct-to-consumer) original
brand manufacturers (or OBMs) represents sti
competition for established fashion brands in the
global mass market. In the basics and price-entry
segment, a few have already started oering
highly desirable products that create a buzz among
fashion-conscious consumers. Take the Chinese
manufacturer Orolay which produced a winter coat
that sold on Amazon for $139. After going viral,
the manufacturer made $5 million of sales in one
month, more than the company’s entire revenue
for 2017.
When it comes to supplying global
e-commerce platforms, China is the established
leader. In the past three years, the share of Chinese
sellers with more than $1 million of revenues on
Amazon rose from 23 percent to 45 percent — not
surprising given that 70 percent of vendors on
European Amazon websites are Chinese.
123
In 23 of
30 European countries, the number one non-do-
mestic supplier of goods, based on most recent
purchase, is China.
124
And we see the same kinds of
numbers playing out in fashion.
A significant driver of the growth of
Asian manufacturer and SME fashion is rising
consumer demand. Some of today’s consumers
are less precious about brand names, and price
is a vital consideration for many, particularly
younger shoppers. An article in The Atlantic put it
succinctly: “Why buy a $40 bikini made in America
when you can buy a $4 bikini directly from China?
For that matter, why buy a $20 bikini made in China
but imported by a US company like the Gap when
you can buy a $4 bikini directly from China?”
125
74
The State of Fashion 2020
Manufacturers that choose to make the
switch to DTC can take advantage of the scale
available through e-commerce, its relatively low
cost (compared with brand-owned websites and
physical retail) and, to some extent, its synergy
with social media marketing. In some cases,
that puts them in direct competition with more
established brands and retailers.
China has worked hard to support SME
globalisation and DTC players, for example
through the development of dedicated distribution
hubs. Yiwu, in Zhejiang province, for example,
is a megalithic centre for wholesale trading and,
increasingly, e-commerce. Its International Trade
City hosts around 70,000 shops and 10 million
products under one roof.
126
Another factor accelerating the cross-bor-
der trade is the sheer dynamism of China’s
e-commerce ecosystem. Alibaba in September
2019 acquired e-commerce platform NetEase
Kaola in a deal worth $2 billion. It plans to
integrate Kaola with Tmall, consolidating China’s
second and third largest platforms to create the
single biggest e-commerce provider.
127
Still, it’s not only Chinese e-commerce
players with international ambitions. E-commerce
platforms across the region are attracting
significant investment, enabling SMEs and
manufacturers to access pan-Asian and, in the
near future, global consumers directly. Alibaba
and SoftBank in 2018 put more than a billion
dollars into Tokopedia, Indonesia’s largest online
marketplace.
128
Alibaba also acquired Singapore-
based e-commerce platform Lazada, into which
it has injected more than $4 billion over the past
three years.
129
Lazada, which has a presence in six
Southeast Asian markets, has built logistics and
cash-on-delivery networks from scratch.
“Our vision is to drive digital transfor-
mation in Southeast Asia,” Lazada Group chief
executive Pierre Poignant says. “We believe by
giving [digital] access to SMEs, merchants and
consumers, we can be a force for good in the
region.” Amazon, meanwhile, is working to expand
its global selling programme across the region —
for example to garment, footwear and leatherwear
SMEs in Vietnam.
Investment has been accompanied by
a push on infrastructure and logistics, funded
by both private investors and governments.
Indonesia’s Bukalapak in May 2019 launched
BukaGlobal, a unit created to help Indonesian
entrepreneurs sell across the region.
130
The move
is likely to be the first step in a wider internation-
al expansion. The company, along with fellow
e-commerce giants Shopee and Tokopedia, has
also partnered with the Jakarta government to
accelerate the development of the capital’s smart
city project.
131
Malaysia (working with Alibaba)
has set up a Digital Free Trade Zone, aiming via
logistics and a digital platform to unlock the
e-commerce ecosystem for local SMEs.
Both Alibaba and Amazon continue to
back SME vendors with lending programmes and
payments solutions. Cross-border transactions
are also getting easier. For example, Alipay and
Adyen are partnering to facilitate payments
outside the Chinese mainland for merchants
trading on Alibaba.
132
The growing impact of Asian manufac-
turers and SMEs comes against the background
of coordinated global eorts to build digital
frameworks, as adherence by e-commerce
platforms to global standards has been more
challenging to oversee and enforce.
133
Some 76
Chinese manufacturer Orolay
produced a winter coat that sold
on Amazon for $139. After going
viral, the manufacturer made
$5 million of sales in one month,
more than the company’s entire
revenue for 2017.
Fashion System
75
World Trade Organisation partners in early 2019
launched talks to develop a predictable, eective
and safe online environment for cross-border
e-commerce trade. China is bolstering consumer
protection by making platforms more liable for
defective or counterfeit goods.
“Platforms will make supply chains leaner
and give consumers access to more products and
suppliers.” says Poignant. “This will create a bigger
pool and reduce prices, which in turn will lead to
pressure on big brands.”
One platform that is paving the way in
helping SMEs and manufacturers put pressure
on established global fashion brands is Taobao,
the world’s biggest e-commerce website owned by
Alibaba. Taobao’s marketplace facilitates consum-
er-to-consumer sales, mainly in Chinese speaking
regions, and has built a reputation as a proving
ground for Chinese manufacturers-turned-de-
signers and several successful brands (including
Babyghost and Ms Min). While Taobao is still
largely domestically focused, events such as the
Taobao Maker Festival, which showcases leading
designers and manufacturers, provide companies
with a window of exposure to overseas markets.
With platforms supporting the growth
of cross-border business and oering seamless
logistics and education, there is sometimes little
noticeable dierence between selling domesti-
cally and internationally. Lazada provides how-to
guides and free online and oine classes to SMEs
looking to grow their businesses across borders.
Its “Seller App” includes a “Business Advisor” tool
that provides information about stock levels and
product popularity.
Looking ahead, we expect to see an accel-
eration of cross-border e-commerce from Asian
players, as new platforms continue to emerge, and
the trend accelerates in Asian countries beyond
China. What does all this mean for established
international brands? In short, they need to
be on their mettle and ready to respond to new
challengers. Over the coming year, we expect
relatively unknown companies and unbranded
products from Asia to take a bigger share of
the market across the region and globally as
investments begin to pay o. To stay ahead of the
game, international brands need to strengthen
their value proposition. In particular, those
competing neither on price nor on quality, must
think strategically about expanding their online
reach and becoming more competitive on pricing.
08. Cross-Border Challengers
Exhibit 10:
In three years, the share of top
sellers on Amazon Marketplace
that are based in China has doubled
% OF SELLERS WITH OVER $1 MILLION IN REVENUE ON
AMAZON MARKETPLACE
1
THAT ARE BASED IN CHINA
SOURCE: MARKETPLACE PULSE
2016
23
34
39
45
2017 2018 2019
2x
1
BASED ON AMAZON MARKETPLACE DATA IN THE UK, GERMANY, FRANCE, ITALY AND
SPAIN ACROSS PRODUCT CATEGORIES. EQUIVALENT US DATA UNAVAILABLE
76
The State of Fashion 2020
The leader of AliExpress explains
how Alibaba Group’s cross-border
e-commerce platform plans to help
aordable Asian brands compete
globally and unlock opportunities for
other fashion players in markets like
Italy, Russia and the Middle East.
— by Casey Hall
Wang Mingqiang
General Manager, AliExpress
Executive Interview
It is easy to forget that cross-
border e-commerce is a two-way
street. Fashion industry leaders
in the west are well versed in
Alibaba platforms such as Tmall
Global and Luxury Pavilion as
these are the inbound channels
that help big brands access the
colossal Chinese market. A much
less familiar platform, however,
is Alibaba’s outbound cross-bor-
der channel AliExpress.
As General Manager of
AliExpress, Wang Mingqiang
has been tasked with the
aggressive expansion of
Alibaba’s hitherto quiet giant,
which facilitates transactions
for consumers in almost every
country around the world.
Wang is at the forefront of a
move by the group to export the
Chinese e-commerce ecosystem,
including its vast network of
manufacturers-turned-brands,
SME suppliers and high-tech
logistics solutions to the wider
world. As it readies to go up
against global competitors
77
08. Cross-Border Challengers
like Amazon, AliExpress has
earmarked fashion as a key
category. If industry leaders
outside Asia have any doubt that
Wang has global ambitions, they
need only look to the platform’s
recent partnership with Milan
Fashion Week as proof.
BoF: AliExpress held its
Starry Night event at Milan
Fashion Week in September
2019. Was this a way to stake
your claim in the fashion
establishment?
Our presence at Milan Fashion
Week reflects AliExpress’
interest in the fashion industry,
which is a category with
great potential. We really are
dedicated to becoming a platform
for worldwide merchants to
benefit from fair and inclusive
global trade.
The event was dierent
from Tmall’s China Cool
project which supported
two Chinese designers on
the Milan runways, wasn’t
it? The AliExpress event
featured a strong non-
Chinese component, with
Italian fashion brands from
the platform featuring in
a catwalk show alongside
Chinese brand Mishow. Why?
Earlier this year (in 2019),
we opened registration to
merchants and SMEs in four
pilot countries outside of China:
Italy, Spain, Turkey and Russia.
This enables them to sell locally
and cross-border in eligible
markets, where consumers are
now able to shop a wider range of
products and brands [and]… to
provide new business opportu-
nities for the fashion industry
across geographies.
So that move reflected the
international expansion
of your seller base beyond
China, but your consumer
base was already very
international, wasn’t it?
Where do AliExpress sellers
do the most business?
The top markets for AliExpress
are Russia, the US, Spain, France,
Brazil, Poland, the UK, Israel,
Korea and the Middle East.
It seems to me that the
AliExpress model brings to
consumers outside of China
the same things that those
within China have enjoyed
for a long time through
other Alibaba platforms
like Taobao. What are the
advantages of this model for
international consumers?
As part of Alibaba Group’s
ecosystem that spans smart
payments, logistics and tech-
nology, AliExpress enables
consumers from around the
world to buy directly from
manufacturers and distrib-
utors primarily in China.
We’re dedicated to becoming
a platform for worldwide
merchants to sell locally and
globally, so international
consumers are able to enjoy the
same benefits and fun experi-
ence that Chinese consumers
enjoy on Taobao.
Do the two big cross-border
platforms within Alibaba —
Tmall Global and AliExpress
— ever work together?
We are all an integral part of
Alibaba’s globalisation strategy
with dierent focuses and
functions. For example, Tmall
Global is to help international
brands build their brand and
reach consumers in China,
whereas AliExpress helps
Chinese and global brands and
SMEs to sell outside of China.
Aside from cross-border, Tmall’s
Luxury Pavilion provides an
exclusive environment for
high-end brands who want to
reach Chinese consumers with a
unique, personalised experience.
How can companies
overcome operational
complexities that arise from
concurrent online expansion
in dierent markets?
AliExpress oers infrastructure
support and services including
payment, logistics, translation,
digital marketing tools, etc. for
companies to overcome [these]
complexities. Cross-border
e-commerce makes it possible
for companies to try dierent
markets concurrently before
they make further decisions
to focus on certain potential
markets — based on direct
engagement with consumers
and digital analysis.
Cross-border e-commerce
has empowered Asian fashion
companies, most notably
those in China, to directly
“Cross-border e-commerce makes it
possible for companies to try dierent
markets concurrently before they make
further decisions to focus on certain
potential markets.”
78
The State of Fashion 2020
Executive Interview
reach global consumers.
But how does it help them
specifically compete on price
and quality?
By being able to test new
markets without heavily
investing in the oine sales or
marketing channels that are tra-
ditionally needed, companies are
able to significantly reduce cost.
It also allows them to respond to
consumer needs faster so they
can better adjust their manufac-
turing and supply chain strat-
egies. [They can] get insights
on consumer preferences at a
much lower cost and with less
risk. This also makes it easier for
them to make adjustments on
design, prices and to streamline
operations, and to acquire su-
cient knowledge before making
further steps. This is significant
for Asian fashion companies,
especially those in China, as
China is one of the world’s
fashion manufacturing centres.
Do you think global fashion
brands in Europe and the
US should be worried about
facing greater competition
from Asian and Chinese
suppliers using cross-border
platforms to sell directly to
consumers overseas?
The market is big enough
[for everyone] and [besides]
consumers have dierent
needs. Our job is to help brands
and companies identify their
consumers and markets to meet
dierent demands.
How is AliExpress improving
its synergies with social
media marketing platforms
in international markets
beyond China?
Social media marketing is a very
important tool for AliExpress
and we work closely with
dierent partners and brands
to streamline our resources
and processes. For example,
for the Milan Fashion Week
event, we launched an online
contest campaign, Take Me to
Milan, that saw thousands of
AliExpress fans from dierent
countries participate, among
whom more than 60 were chosen
to attend the show in Milan.
Currently, the majority
of AliExpress sellers in
categories like clothing and
footwear seem to be selling
very low-priced products.
Do you foresee a future where
higher-priced fashion brands
can take better advantage
of AliExpress?
We already see higher-priced
Chinese fashion brands interest-
ed in taking better advantage of
AliExpress to expand in overseas
markets. As part of Alibaba
Group’s ecosystem, we’re also
working with Tmall (Alibaba’s
B2C marketplace serving
Chinese consumers) to help
those higher-priced Chinese
designer brands use AliExpress
to reach consumers around
the world.
Some counterfeit fashion
brand merchandise
still seems to appear on
AliExpress. What are you
doing to protect the IP of
global fashion brands?
AliExpress takes intellectual
property rights protection very
seriously. As a third-party mar-
ketplace, we have strict regula-
tions on sellers on our platform
to respect third-party intellec-
tual property rights and [we]
monitor on a regular basis. When
any irregularity is found, we will
take actions ranging from taking
down product listings to closing
[down a seller’s] store.
Amazon remains the
platform of choice for many
shoppers in western markets
like the US and Europe.
How can AliExpress take
market share from Amazon
and other competitors?
Our main competitor is… ourself.
We work hard and focus first and
foremost on our merchants to
make sure they’re empowered to
leverage our digital platform in
order to reach their audience and
be successful.
This interview has been edited and condensed.
79
09. UNCONVENTIONAL CONVENTIONS
Traditional trade shows must respond to the increase
of direct-to-consumer activity, shorter fashion cycles
and digitisation by embracing new roles and ine-
tuning their target audience. In a bid to dierentiate
themselves — or even just to survive — more of these
events will add B2C attractions or launch new services
and experiences to improve relationships with their
traditional B2B audience.
Trade shows have long been at the heart
of the brand-retailer relationship in fashion.
They allowed retailers to buy the next season’s
clothes in one place in just a few days and were
cost-eective for brands who could see all their
retailers, and meet new ones, in one go. They also
allowed fashion media and industry experts to stay
on top of industry trends.
But as technology disintermediates the
wholesale business, old buying models evolve, and
the craving grows for experience over exchange,
trade shows and showrooms are becoming less
important for certain segments of the fashion
industry. Some are struggling to stay relevant while
others are being discontinued altogether.
Bread & Butter, for example, declared
bankruptcy in 2014 and was subsequently bought by
Zalando. Under new ownership, the biannual show
for contemporary clothing opened its doors to the
public, set up digitally enhanced urban environ-
ments, held concerts and engaged with celebrities.
It was not enough, and the 2019 show was cancelled
with no plans for its return.
While industry-wide data is hard to come
by, US attendance numbers as collated by Trade
Show Executive magazine at a number of shows
such as Womenswear In Nevada and TransWorld’s
Jewelry Fashion & Accessories are showing signs
of plateauing in recent years, as retailers pay less
attention to such large-scale events. Likewise,
more than half of the brand and multi-brand retailer
respondents to our 2019 survey agree that trade
shows had little or no relevance to placing orders.
134
One challenge is that fashion seasons have
shortened beyond the four seasons traditionally
defined by luxury players. Pre-season orders are
shifting towards open-to-buy models and, since
retailers must keep their websites and windows
fresh, this pace of output puts a huge creative and
financial burden on brands for whom trade shows
are simply not frequent enough.
In addition, digitisation has reduced the need
for brands and retailers to physically come together.
There are already several online fashion B2B
platforms connecting the two parties, such as Ordre,
Joor and eFashion Paris. While the very nature of
fashion and its tactile properties means that B2B
processes may never be completely absorbed by
digital — in the same way that online retail still
makes up just a fraction of oine retail — there is
undoubtedly an impact. This is compounded by
buying teams becoming more streamlined and thus
being more selective about their travel plans as
competition with online retailers has intensified.
135
“Are we about to see the complete demise of
physical showrooms and tradeshows? No, we’re
not,” says Simon P. Lock, founder, chairman and
chief executive of Ordre. “However, the industry is
80
The State of Fashion 2020
heading towards an omnichannel approach. While
insignificant now, I believe in the next five years,
20 percent of B2B business will happen online.”
There is a third problem for trade shows today.
Due in part to the value of harvesting customer
data, brands increasingly prefer selling direct to
consumers either online or through their own
physical stores and select key accounts. As their
dependency on distribution via a broad population
of third-party retailers wanes, so does the need to
invest in trade shows.
In response, major trade shows have already
begun to rethink their purpose and focus more on
the attendee experience. Trade show organisers are
trying to reinvent the concept with new formats,
fresh content, and by appealing to new audiences.
Pitti Uomo, one of the largest men’s clothing
trade shows, is held every six months in Florence
and attracts 30,000 visitors. In January, the
organisers changed things up dramatically and
transformed the 16
th
century fortress where
the show is held into a vibrant city square that
encouraged networking more than sales. There
were street-food stalls, art installations and runway
shows. Salvatore Ferragamo and Givenchy have
even moved their menswear collection launches
from fashion weeks to Pitti Uomo.
Even in China, where the B2B trade show
concept itself is much newer,
136
players are striving
to bring more to the table than traditional trade
shows. As China’s largest fashion trade show,
137
Ontimeshow hosts panel talks and multi-media
installations alongside creative showcases for
Chinese brands.
138
Some trade shows have worked on integrating
the digital component to improve the in-person
attendee experience, streamline the wholesale order
process and meaningfully reach buyers that can’t
attend. For instance, the Magic show in Las Vegas
oers a digital concierge service to connect with
brands more eciently.
139
“We are starting to see some technical
innovation, but this needs to happen in a deeper way
as buyers and exhibitors are becoming frustrated
with the old-school system,” says Lock. “Where is
the technology that identifies a brand’s best buyers
when they walk in the door? [Or the technology]
that allows you to quickly and eectively place
orders, even outside of the three-to-four days of
the show? Those that don’t go online won’t be in
business in 10 years’ time.”
Alongside these new formats, progressive
trade show organisers are ensuring the content of
their events is as fresh as the fashion. By focusing on
industry issues as well as trends, they give retailers
and industry insiders more reasons to attend. ISPO,
which organises the world’s largest sportswear
show, held a Digitize Summit this year, with a series
of events on growth through digitisation.
Pure London, a semi-annual show that
attracts 17,000 visitors, chose to emphasise
sustainability issues. Its Power of One campaign
aims to unite the fashion industry around the
topic and it has partnered with the United Nations,
actively promoting brands that are helping work
towards key sustainable development goals such
as ending poverty.
Perhaps the biggest change some trade shows
are making is to stop being just about the brand-
retailer trade. Opening up to end-consumers is one
way to boost attendee numbers and reflects the
growing trend for selling direct.
“It’s never just a communication between
the parties [in the sense] of buying a collection and
selling a collection,” says Stefano Martinetto, chief
executive of Tomorrow London. “It’s about delivering
experience for the end consumer, so there definitely
needs to be attractive consumer experience.”
White Milano opened its doors to consumers
in June 2018 with the White Street Market.
It allowed certain streetwear and sportswear
labels, along with a few niche fashion brands, to talk
directly to both retailers and consumers. As White
Milano chief executive, Brenda Bellei explained,
“B2B remains essential, it is the focus of our
business and always our primary concern. But B2C
is a real opportunity for the brands.”
The concept of a trade show for the public
has even led to entirely new events. Reference
Berlin was a 24-hour fashion festival held in a
Fashion System
81
trendy Berlin neighbourhood in May. It attracted
directional fashion labels, such as Martine Rose
and Comme des Garçons, as well as more than 2,300
members of the public.
140
Textile and fibre trade shows further
upstream are innovating too. Exhibitors at Blossom
Première Vision, which saw both attendee and
exhibitor numbers grow at its 7
th
edition of the show
this year, used the opportunity to highlight their
latest innovations, particularly in sustainability.
141
Even with all this innovation, trade shows still
face enormous challenges. MICAM, a biannual trade
show that attracted 43,000 visitors to Milan in early
2018, tried a range of initiatives to help attendees
and buyers better understand the industry, such
as a partnership with trend forecasting agency
WGSN, and a set of dedicated spaces with experi-
ential features designed to promote co-learning
and collaboration. Yet, despite this eort, visitor
numbers declined; giving people what they want is
not always enough.
“It’s opening a sort of winner-takes-all
scenario… There will be a couple of companies left,
and those couple of companies will be leveraging
an increased number of services,” says Martinetto,
underscoring that in the luxury sector the fate of
the multi-brand showroom could mirror that of the
trade show.
“If you have the size and if you have the
ideas and if you have the finance available,
probably there’s a chance for [a few] to survive.
[But the showroom of the future] has to be experi-
ential, it has to be curated, it has to be a museum
of information. It’s certainly not just filled with
candles, flowers and racks, because that [era] has
gone for good,” he adds.
In 2020, we expect to continue to see a shift in
the role of trade shows and showrooms. Integrating
more sophisticated digital components will be
crucial to reach a wider audience and enhance the
experience for attendees both during and outside
of the show period. More trade shows will consider
tailoring and optimising their experience to a
targeted audience rather than trying to appeal to
everyone, while others will open their doors to end
consumers. Those that fail to adapt suciently
or who misjudge their new ideas may disappear
from the calendar altogether. Fashion brand
exhibitors need to adapt too. As shows become more
targeted, exhibiting brands should become more
careful and selective about which ones they join
while upgrading their own booths in a much more
engaging and digital way.
Trade shows and showrooms remain
relevant for B2B relationships in the fashion
industry. However, with the entire model of
buying at trade shows under increased pressure
and retailers picky about which ones they attend,
we would expect a continued decline in overall
attendance — only the most dynamic, exciting trade
shows that add real value to all parties will likely
survive in the long term.
09. Unconventional Conventions
Exhibit 11:
Brands and retailers are beginning
to question the relevance of trade
shows for buying and writing orders
% OF RESPONDING BRANDS AND MULTIBRAND
RETAILERS
SOURCE: BOFMCKINSEY STATE OF FASHION 2020 SURVEY, ONLY INCLUDING
BRAND OR MULTIBRAND RETAILER RESPONDENTS
High relevance
15
30
55
Some relevance
Low/no relevance
82
The State of Fashion 2020
Executive Interview
The luxury veteran behind Pitti
Immagine explains how the Italian
trade show group will evolve in the face
of threats to the B2B system and double
down on the visitor experience with an
‘obsessive’ attention to detail.
— by Robb Young
Raaello Napoleone
Chief Executive, Pitti Immagine
The pressure is on fashion’s
middlemen. As the original
platform for designers and
buyers to make deals, trade
shows are now being squeezed by
shorter fashion cycles, the rise of
direct-to-consumer brands and
the digitisation of B2B relation-
ships. In response, trade show
operators have either sharpened
their focus or trialled add-ons
in a bid to stay relevant. Some
adopted new business models;
others went bust.
While it’s clear that adaptability
will be one of the main deter-
miners of success or survival,
there are dierent views on
how bold trade show operators
should be. Who better to weigh
in on the debate than a 30-year
veteran of one of world’s biggest
fashion trade show groups?
Pitti Immagine chief executive
Raaello Napoleone oversees a
portfolio that includes Florence-
based trade fairs Pitti Uomo
(menswear), Pitti Bimbo (chil-
drenswear), Pitti Filati (yarns
83
and knitwear) and Super in
Milan. His advice? That incum-
bents like Pitti should pursue
meticulous upgrades rather than
dramatic change.
BoF: Given all the challenges
that trade shows now face,
what do you think the future
holds? Some people are
predicting a winner-takes-
all scenario where only a few
giant fashion trade shows
will survive.
Do you want my serious answer
or my funny answer?
I’ll give you the silly one first: as
a giant [trade show], of course
I hope that they’re right and
that this will be the future. OK,
now for my serious answer: it
depends. Because if you find
the right content for the right
market and you handle it well,
then you can set up a small, niche
trade fair that’s doing something
serious. Look at Kingpins in
Amsterdam. It’s a [specialist
community-based trade] show
with a very small number of
denim fabric producers. It’s the
[leading B2B] appointment for
that market niche, compared to
the giant [generalist textile trade
shows like] Première Vision or
Milano Unica.
So if it’s not necessarily bad
news for all small trade shows
in the fashion industry, what
traits will set apart those who
make it and those who fall by
the wayside?
It’s a question of being credible.
You have to find the right timing
too, of course, and eventually
[you’ll have to broker] very
special appointments between
your exhibitors and buyers. But
if you’re adding value, then small
trade shows can still work in the
future, yes. We actually have a
very good example of this in our
own portfolio. We have a small
[gastronomy trade show] called
Taste that started 15 years ago
to help very small Italian food
producers. I guess I’d summarise
by saying long glory to the big
trade shows and good [fortune
for the best] of the rest.
It’s not just the smaller
players who should be
concerned though, is it?
Trade show giants like you
can’t rest on your laurels
either. What are you planning
to do dierently at Pitti Uomo
and your other fashion trade
shows to stay ahead?
There are many projects we
need to do. We are going more
and more [down] the road of an
independent, lifestyle expe-
rience. For example, we’d like
to do something similar for
our fashion fairs as we did at
our Fragranze fair, where we
recently had a retrospective
exhibition of Jean-Claude Ellena,
one the most important noses in
the perfume world. We’d also like
to have a stronger food service in
the fortress (Fortezza da Basso
venue) because we can oer a
much more appealing and inter-
esting Italian food experience for
our visitors.
This sounds more like fine
tuning the visitor experience
than big strategic planning.
Doesn’t Pitti need to make
bolder changes, given all the
changes happening in
your sector?
This is not just about paninis.
The changes in the fashion
distribution system are forcing
everyone to be closer to the
market, so we also have to
approach every aspect [of the
visitor experience] obsessively
because we have to keep aston-
ishing people. We’re trying to
have an even closer relationship
with our visitors and exhibitors;
trying to be more useful for
them; being in touch with them
all throughout the year and not
just during the show period.
So you don’t intend to expand
the B2B scope of Pitti to
include some B2C services?
You don’t see a need or
an opportunity to attract
end-consumers as well as
professionals?
Why? We saw what happened to
Bread & Butter, the first trade
show to open to the public and to
the consumer. No, we have to be
very, very [clear] with our posi-
tioning. B2C happens every day
from 10am until 7pm at shops
on shopping streets [like] Via
Montenapoleone. I mean, what
can a B2B trade fair do better for
consumers than the actual stores
do? And how are we supposed to
“The changes in the fashion distribution
system are forcing everyone to be closer
to the market, so we also have to approach
every aspect [of the visitor experience]
obsessively because we have to keep
astonishing people.”
09. Unconventional Conventions
84
The State of Fashion 2020
approach the consumer without
letting them touch or buy? No,
we don’t trust this B2C approach
for [trade fairs]. What we need
to do is keep making the profes-
sional experience richer so that
the professionals go home feeling
like a real community.
But given the continued rise
of DTC [direct-to-consumer]
brands and e-commerce the
wholesale fashion business is
getting squeezed. Isn’t it only
logical that the traditional
meeting places for wholesale
players will also get squeezed?
It’s true that there’s a [rebalanc-
ing] of wholesale and multibrand
[stores], but the ones that remain
only get stronger and stronger.
So we need to have even stronger
relationships with these stronger
multibrands. E-commerce is
actually helping because it’s
adding options. And as for the
brands, there’s room for both the
[DTC] brands and the traditional
designer brands in the market.
So you’re not worried about
DTC supplanting wholesale in
the luxury sector?
No. Let me answer like this.
You know, for a Ferrari you have
to wait two years or a year-and-
a-half. But you can buy a [Fiat]
Cinquecento in just one week
if you want. They’re [both car
companies] but they’re dierent
kinds of companies.
What about virtual trade
shows or virtual showrooms?
Do you think this is a realistic
proposition for the fashion
industry? Are they a gimmick
or are they the future?
You can’t go in just one direction.
With our e-Pitti [service], we
tried to give retailers both
options. We have to push every
button [because] they’re using
more instruments than in the
past. It’s not change [that’s the
challenge], it’s the speed of
the change.
At the latest edition of
Pitti Uomo in June 2019 you
reported 30,000 visitors,
including 18,500 buyers
from almost 100 dierent
countries. Which levers can
you pull for growth in the
year ahead?
One opportunity is the new
multibrand networks. We’re now
starting to see better opportu-
nities in China because there
are more and more multibrand
stores emerging. And [in addition
to] the usual big markets in
Europe and Asia, we’re also
excited about a few really high
quality multibrand stores
coming out of newer markets like
the Philippines and Vietnam.
Curation is an overused word
in the fashion industry, but
Pitti Uomo’s reputation really
is built on curation. There’s
the guest nation system
where you bring a whole
country pavilion of menswear
designers to the show and so
many other initiatives. What’s
next in terms of keeping
Pitti’s curation on point?
For the world’s best menswear
brands and designers to choose
us to launch their products at
our show, we need to oer them
the best stage to do so. The same
for visitors. That’s how the Pitti
“peacocks” started a few years
ago [the phenomenon that saw
dapper men flock to Pitti Uomo
as a destination to be seen as
well as do business]. You know,
somebody asked us, “How did
you launch the peacocks in
Pitti?” Well, we didn’t invest one
euro in that actually.
What do you mean?
People come because [they]
can’t aord to miss Pitti. That’s
the dierence between Pitti
and fashion week… Here at the
fortress, it’s a real community
we’ve created. We oer the
market an opportunity to find
something new [through] our
curatorial approach. From small
independent stores to big depart-
ment stores, that’s the value
we add. We’re not just selling
square metres [to exhibitors],
we’re selling good ideas and good
services to the whole market.
This interview has been edited and condensed.
Executive Interview
“People come
because [they] can’t
aord to miss Pitti.
That’s the dierence
between Pitti and
fashion week… Here
at the fortress, it’s
a real community
we’ve created.”
85
10. DIGITAL RECALIBRATION
Valuations of digital fashion players have reached
dizzying levels and, despite a slew of high-proile IPOs
and private irms achieving unicorn status, investor
sentiment is taking a turn for the worse. Investor
apprehension is growing over the path to proitability for
some digital players, from online pure play retailers and
marketplaces, to direct-to-consumer brands and other
digital-irst business models.
Digital continues to be a major focus of
the fashion industry. Brands are rightly obsessed
by how to make digital pay, not just in respect of
the customer interface, but across the organisa-
tion. Investors too have been pushing this shift
— mentions of “digital” in leading brand earnings
calls have risen 130 percent over the past four
years.
142
Against this background pure fashion-tech
players have made hay, raising almost half the $3.7
billion total from initial public oerings (IPOs) in
fashion in 2018 to 2019, despite accounting for just
17 percent by number.
Appetite for digital has pushed fashion-
tech valuations to stratospheric levels in the public
and private markets. Pure online players often
trade at an average enterprise value (EV)/sales
ratio of above 2x, compared with 0.8x for the wider
fashion sector.
Indeed, fashion-tech players are attracting
a significant proportion of private equity (PE) and
venture capital (VC) investment. While PE and
VC investment in fashion peaked at nearly $23
billion in 2017, the proportion of this investment
going to fashion-tech players — from e-commerce
platforms to direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands
— reached highs of 57 percent this year, a marked
increase from 28 percent just two years ago.
143
There is growing excitement around the
fashion-tech unicorn (privately-held companies
valued at more than $1 billion) phenomenon, as
StockX and Rent the Runway this year joined last
year’s unicorns About You and Allbirds. Several
DTC start-ups — including luggage company Away
and beauty brands Glossier and Pat McGrath —
reached billion-dollar valuations in their latest
rounds of fundraising. Meanwhile, there has been
an additional group of brands valued upwards of
half a billion dollars, including resale marketplace
ThredUp, sneaker retailer Goat, luxury fashion
discovery platform Moda Operandi and online
lingerie brand ThirdLove.
With fashion-tech companies trading
more in line with the technology segment than
the fashion segment, and with equity markets still
Pure fashion-tech players have
made hay, raising almost half the
$3.7 billion total from initial public
oerings (IPOs) in fashion in 2018
to 2019, despite accounting for
just 17 percent by number.
86
The State of Fashion 2020
hovering near record highs, there is a reasonable
basis for investors to take stock. The tech-dom-
inated Nasdaq has climbed steadily for a decade
but dipped in late 2018 and in 2019 and has traded
flat, after recovering to beat its earlier highs. As
IPOs continue apace, performance expectations
are softening. In this year’s class, only 24 percent
of companies are expected to report positive net
income in their first year on the market, making
them the least profitable IPO class of any year since
the peak of the tech boom in 1999, according to
Goldman Sachs.
144
“Numerous companies have come public
this year and not traded well… this typically
marks the end of speculative behaviour,” says
Mike Wilson, chief investment ocer and chief
US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley.
145
“This
change in investor behaviour may also mark the
end of the frenzy for unicorn private companies
that have great growth potential but are currently
unprofitable and burn a large amount of cash every
year, requiring ongoing financing.”
Indeed, post-IPO, investors have often
ended up disappointed. The Renaissance IPO
Index gives investors exposure to companies that
have been public in the US for two years or less,
with tech players accounting for roughly half of the
companies included. The index has faltered since
August, having recovered from its large dip at the
end of 2018. No wonder there are concerns that
the market in some ways feels reminiscent of the
lead-up to the dot-com boom of the early 2000s.
The aiction seen in the wider tech sector
is also reflected in fashion, where many of the
most recent class of IPOs have not traded well in
secondary markets. An investor who invested $100
in fashion-tech IPOs over the past two years would
now have $73 remaining.
146
It’s not just public companies that have
struggled recently. Beyond the high-profile
WeWork saga, online fashion resale marketplace
Poshmark in September delayed plans for an IPO
until next year to “focus on boosting sales and
improving its execution.”
147
The company, whose
investors include Menlo Ventures and Temasek,
brings to light market caution as fashion-tech
investors weigh up their exit strategies.
Some of the world’s biggest companies
that invested in fashion-tech players are showing
signs of reviewing their digital strategies, at the
expense of these pure play brands. Walmart in
June announced plans to divest or restructure a
number of e-commerce businesses, including Jet.
com, an online start-up it acquired in 2016 for
$3.3 billion.
148
In October Walmart sold women’s
apparel player ModCloth to an investor group for
an undisclosed price. It has also been cutting sta
at digitally native menswear brand Bonobos.
149
Experience from the past oers sobering
lessons from investor exuberance in fashion-tech
players, as several have fallen from dizzying
heights. After raising $40 million of funding in
2012, Nasty Gal filed for bankruptcy protection in
2016 and was sold to Boohoo for just $40 million
Fashion System
In this year’s class, only 24 percent
of companies are expected to
report positive net income in their
irst year on the market, making
them the least proitable IPO class
of any year since the peak of the
tech boom in 1999.
“This change in investor behaviour
may mark the end of the frenzy for
unicorn private companies that
have great growth potential but
are currently unproitable and burn
a large amount of cash every year,
requiring ongoing inancing.”
87
the following year, spurred in part by heavy
investment in logistics and expensive customer
acquisition. Gilt Groupe deviated from its core as it
moved beyond apparel to travel sales and food, and
expanded into Asia at the height of its popularity,
while industry critiques also point to the slower
uptake in flash-sales by consumers as was expected
by investors.
150
It was acquired by Hudson’s Bay
Company for $250 million in 2016 — a fraction of
its $1 billion valuation in 2011 — and since has been
bought by competitor Rue La La, which just four
years prior Gilt Groupe was said to be eyeing up as
an acquisition.
Nobody has a crystal ball when it comes to
financial markets, but the story of 2019 has been
that not all high-profile companies embracing
e-commerce are guaranteed to prove a clear path
to profitability. The same can be said for fash-
ion-tech companies. As a result, we expect in 2020
that the fever around these companies will abate,
both in public and private markets, as investors
look for signs of real profitability potential, over
just sales growth, before jumping in. We expect
investors to develop a sharper appreciation of
which companies are creating value and which are
destroying it, and a more sober attitude to IPOs,
leaving private equity companies to think more
carefully about alternative exit opportunities for
potential unicorns before jumping in — after all,
how many buyers are there for a company worth
more than a billion dollars?
In response, digital fashion players need
to evaluate their business models and look for
levers to boost revenues profitably and ensure
they are clear about which elements of their
business model will drive profit. For larger
players, as highlighted in last year’s report in
“Digital Landgrab,” companies that diversify their
ecosystems to related and overlapping businesses
will strengthen their leads over pure players who
rely solely on retail margins and existing oerings.
An important performance dierentiator will be
data and analytics that can make life easier for
customers and suppliers, and may be the key to
outperformance in the longer term.
An important performance
dierentiator will be data and
analytics that can make life easier
for customers and suppliers, and
may be the key to outperformance
in the longer term.
10. Digital Recalibration
Exhibit 12
If you invested $100 across
the fashion-tech IPOs of the past
two years, you would now have $73
DOLLAR VALUE OF INVESTMENT IN FASHION TECH IPO
STOCKS, $US
AT TIME OF IPO OCT 2019
100
73
SOURCE: BASED ON STOCK PRICE DATA ON YAHOO FINANCE AS OF OCT
21ST. EURUSD RATES USED: JUL 2ND 1.1287, OCT 21ST 1.1152. INCLUDES IPOS
IN NOV 2017  OCT 19  GLOBAL FASHION GROUP, THE REALREAL, JUMIA
TECHNOLOGIES, RUHNN HOLDING, MOGU, REVOLVE, FARFETCH. ADIKA STYLE
EXCLUDED DUE TO LIMITED LIQUIDITY
88
The State of Fashion 2020
MCKINSEY
GLOBAL
FASHION
INDEX
89
How a Group of High Performers
Drive Value Creation in the Industry
The McKinsey Global Fashion Index gives a birds-eye view of the fashion
industry, uniquely tracking inancial development and value creation
through economic proit. Spanning regions, price segments and product
categories, the MGFI is comprised of public and private companies whose
predominant revenue streams are from apparel, fashion and luxury.
McKinsey Global Fashion Index
In this edition of the McKinsey Global
Fashion Index, we deepen our exploration of
economic profit — a measure of value creation that
looks at a company’s profit less its cost of capital,
thus taking into account how much each company
invested to generate its performance. First, we
unpack historical economic profit composition
and development across the industry before
taking another look at who has now risen to the
top as “Super Winners.” To understand what it
takes to move through the ranks, we also explore
companies lagging in economic profit. We then
turn to the private side to spotlight some of the
industry’s “Hidden Champions” before closing
with our annual forecast for industry revenue
growth by geography, value segment and
product category.
The Evolution of the Industry
Economic profit has grown for the second
year running, following consecutive years of
decline from 2012 to 2016. Low single digit revenue
growth in 2018 attributed little to this increase
in economic profit. Instead, the 16 percent rise
came largely from improved operating margins
driven by successful cost cutting. The industry’s
earnings before interest, taxes and amortisation
(EBITA) margins overall have remained relatively
stable — hovering between 10.4 percent and 11.7
percent over this decade. However, even these
slight fluctuations in EBITA margins have had a
notable impact on the industry’s economic profit
— and economic profit is particularly sensitive to
margins given that EBITA is a core component in
calculating a company’s return on invested capital.
Mirroring the rise in economic profit since 2016,
the industry’s EBITA margins have risen nearly
half of a percentage point to 10.8 percent in 2018.
Examining the evolution of economic
profit over time within price segments tells a more
nuanced story. For some years now, the polari-
sation of the market has progressed, with both
luxury and value and discount players gaining
share with an increasing number of consumers
choosing to make major “investment” purchases
while otherwise opting for value. This is also
reflected by total return to shareholders (TRS).
Looking at TRS over the past three years by value
segment, luxury and value clearly outperformed,
delivering 22 percent and 14 percent respective-
ly. Considering premium/bridge’s 1 percent and
mid-market’s -2 percent during the same time
frame, the bifurcation across price segments
is evident.
151
The State of Fashion 2020
Exhibit 13:
Economic profit in the industry has continued to rise since 2016
TOTAL ECONOMIC PROFIT, INDEXED TO 2010 ECONOMIC PROFIT AS 100, %
Exhibit 14:
Luxury has been driving the bulk of the rebound in the
industry’s economic profit
TOTAL ECONOMIC PROFIT, INDEXED TO 2010 ECONOMIC PROFIT AS 100, AND % BREAKDOWN BY VALUE SEGMENT
SOURCE: MCKINSEY GLOBAL FASHION INDEX MGFI
EBITA margin, %
2010
100
100
2011
103
103
2012
104
104
2014
91
91
75
75
77
77
66
66
53
53
20162013
103
103
2015 2017 2018
11.7 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.2 10.7 10.4 10.7 10.8
SOURCE: MCKINSEY GLOBAL FASHION INDEX MGFI
2010 2011 2012 2014 20162013 2015 2017 2018
20
59
21
17
54
29
20
46
34
28
44
28
42
42
16
22
42
37
34
42
23
31
40
29
25
39
36
LUXURY + AFFORDABLE LUXURY
PREMIUMBRIDGE + MIDMARKET
VALUE + DISCOUNT
91
McKinsey Global Fashion Index
The squeezed premium/bridge and
mid-market players drove nearly 80 percent of
the absolute decline in industry economic profit
between 2010 and 2016. During this time,
their EBITA margins have been eroded by rising
selling, general & administrative expenses (SG&A).
The premium/bridge segment was dramatically
compressed, with its share of overall industry
economic profit falling from 15 percent in 2010
to just 2 percent in 2016.
In contrast, the luxury sectors have
largely driven the industry’s rebound over the
last two years, accounting for almost 80 percent
of the industry’s economic profit growth. This is
from both strong revenue growth and a 3 percent-
age-point improvement in EBITA margins.
By 2018, luxury accounts for almost 40 percent
of the industry’s economic profit, more than
doubling its share since 2016.
The economic profit perspective reveals
that the market share gain of value and discount
players masks some challenges faced by these
segments. Value and discount players have seen
their absolute profits shrink as increasing costs of
goods sold (COGS) has outpaced their rapid revenue
growth. Reacting to rising sourcing costs and
increased markdowns, some of these players have
upgraded their assortment planning capabilities by
revising their end-to-end product development and
sourcing processes to increase eciency.
As discussed, the IFRS16 changes have
created an even starker winner-takes-all industry
The International Financial Reporting
Standards (IFRS) has made recent accounting
standards changes to the treatment of
leases, to increase transparency and ensure
comparability on reported proitability
between companies. This has driven some
notable changes in the MGFI and subsequent
economic proit analyses.
The new standard requires leases to
be recognised as assets on the balance sheet,
with corresponding depreciation and interest
charges in the income statement. This change
has particularly impacted the reporting of
retailers, given their reliance on property
leases. Both EBITA and invested capital are
aected, lowering overall economic proit for
most players in the MGFI.
The players most aected are those
with a high number of leases, particularly
fast-growing companies with expansion
plans based on leasing new premises and
established companies with long-dated
leases on large properties. The change has
shifted nearly 10 percent of players from
being proitable to being loss-making in
terms of economic proit and has reduced
the industry’s total economic proit pool.
This has made the contribution of the “value
creators” disproportionately higher, leading
to a starker winner-takes-all landscape. In this
report, igures from previous years have been
retroactively adjusted to enable year-on-year
comparisons.
Although the IFRS16 change has
had a signiicant impact on paper, retailers
ind operations themselves have been
little aected. John Lewis Partnership, for
example, explicitly stated that the new rule
“does not change the underlying economics
of our business and has no quantitative
impact to cash lows.” All major credit rating
agencies have adjusted inancial statements
to capitalise operating leases for some time,
with Moody’s reporting that it didn’t expect
ratings downgrades as a result of the change.
Furthermore, these IFRS16 changes have
not led to notable revaluations in the stock
market. Nonetheless, the change could
accelerate a shift towards more lexible,
short-term property leasing.
Unpacking the IFRS16 change
The State of Fashion 2020
Exhibit 15:
The fashion industry remains a “winner-takes-all” market
FASHION COMPANIES’ CONTRIBUTION TO INDUSTRY ECONOMIC PROFIT BY RANKED QUINTILE, %
Exhibit 16:
The proportion of value destroyers in the industry stands at over
half, and is growing
VALUE CREATORS VS. VALUE DESTROYERS PER YEAR, %
1
IF CALCULATED USING PREIFRS16 NUMBERS, THE PERCENTAGE OF VALUE DESTROYERS IN THE INDEX IN 2018 WOULD BE 48 PERCENT
SOURCE: MCKINSEY GLOBAL FASHION INDEX MGFI
1
IF CALCULATED USING PREIFRS16 NUMBERS, THE TOP QUINTILE IN 2018 WOULD HAVE CONTRIBUTED 137 PERCENT OF THE INDUSTRY’S ECONOMIC PROFIT WITH MIDDLE
QUINTILES CONTRIBUTING 4 PERCENT AND THE BOTTOM QUINTILE CONTRIBUTING 41 PERCENT
SOURCE: MCKINSEY GLOBAL FASHION INDEX MGFI
Top 20%
20112015
-43
-95 -83 -76
132
11
-3 -2 -1
198 185 177
2016 2017 2018
1
2180%
Bottom 20%
2010 2013 20162011 2014 20172012 2015 2018
Value
creators
Value
destroyers
32
45
36
55
45
60
68
26
51
40
55
45
55
74
56
1
4449
64
93
McKinsey Global Fashion Index
by shifting about 10 percent of players from
being profitable to being loss-making in terms of
economic profit. This has led to further concentra-
tion of economic profit among the top quintile of
players ranked by economic profit generation.
In 2018, the top quintile contributed over 175
percent of the economic profit. The middle
quintiles, however, have seen their contribution
compressed from positive 11 percent earlier in
the decade to -1 percent now. Over the last three
years, these middle quintiles have also become
net destroyers of value. In fact, the proportion
of players that destroy value has grown steadily
since 2011 causing the industry to move from
being a value-creating majority to a value-destroy-
ing majority. The percent of value destroyers in
the MGFI more than doubled between 2011 and
2018, from 26 percent to 56 percent respectively.
The polarisation is even more pronounced when
analyses show that it is the top 20 players who
continue to carry the industry’s value creation.
These top 20 players — the “Super Winners” (see
Exhibit 17) — account for 138 percent of the total
industry’s economic profit in 2018.
Among this year’s Super Winners are
players that stand apart thanks to their continuous
innovation of both products and customer
experience, their development of strong brand
equity through community connections on
issues that matter, and a notable focus on digital
(apart from predominantly o-price retailers).
With higher than average revenue growth, Super
Winners also outperform on gross profit margin
and capital eciency compared to the rest of the
industry. At 54 percent gross profit margin, Super
Winners average 6 percentage points higher than
the rest of the industry. Super Winners are also
more capital ecient with 55 percent of invested
capital as percent of sales compared to the rest of
the industry’s 66 percent.
This year’s top three companies by
economic profit — Nike, Inditex and LVMH —
are also the most inspiring, according to industry
executives that responded to The Business of
Fashion and McKinsey’s annual State of Fashion
survey. Praise was given to Inditex’s fast and
flexible business model that helps it innovate
quickly in response to new trends; LVMH was
lauded for its ability to stay true to its core
while simultaneously reinventing itself; while
respondents recognised Nike’s drive for innovation
across products, categories and business models,
along with its ability to connect and build a
community with its consumers.
In this year’s top 20 Super Winners, there
are three new entrants — Anta Sports, Heilan
Home (HLA Corporation) and Lululemon.
They have leapfrogged past several of last year’s
winners, including Michael Kors and Gap.
These new players’ performance and rise through
the ranks is reflective of the strength of the
sportswear and athleisure category and Chinese
companies. Strong revenue growth in sportswear,
in line with last year’s forecast outperformance,
has propelled category players upwards in the
MGFI. Chinese players rising up the MGFI
reinforce the story of shifting attitudes in favour
of local brands by Chinese consumers, as local
heroes increasingly compete with internation-
al high-street brands in areas such as value for
money, innovation in design and quality,
and customer service.
152
Luxury players also experienced healthy
revenue growth. Notable in luxury is Kering’s
particularly impressive rise through the ranks,
driven by Gucci’s double-digit year-on-year sales
growth, and high performance in Asia-Pacific
markets such as Japan. US companies meanwhile
benefitted from the large corporate tax cuts.
Several top players whose economic profit fell,
such as Richemont and H&M, have in fact been
investing heavily with the aim of securing their
long-term future.
Changing fortunes
Looking at companies across the MGFI
over the past five years and building on McKinsey
analysis as per an earlier op-ed in The Business of
The State of Fashion 2020
Exhibit 17:
This year’s top 20 players and thus “Super Winners”
TOP 20 PLAYERS 2018, BY ECONOMIC PROFIT, $US MILLION
Exhibit 18:
The largest “Hidden Champions” in the industry collectively
generate over $125 billion in revenues
CUMULATIVE REVENUE FROM PRIVATE COMPANIES GENERATING OVER $3BN IN REVENUE PER YEAR, SPLIT BY
REVENUE BAND BASED ON 2018 ESTIMATED REVENUES, $US BILLION
SOURCE: MCKINSEY GLOBAL FASHION INDEX MGFI
SOURCE: MCKINSEY GLOBAL FASHION INDEX MGFI
Nike
Inditex
LVMH
TJX Companies
Kering
Hermès
Fast Retailing
Adidas
Ross
VF Corporation
Pandora
Richemont
Anta Sports
Next
L Brands
HLA Corporation
H&M
Lululemon
Hanes Brands
Burberry
2,980
2,910
2,316
1,669
1,513
1,311
1,059
1,008
897
861
641
568
532
515
483
413
401
400
371
315
NEW ENTRANTS
10 and above
5 – 10
3 – 5
~25
~55
~45
95
McKinsey Global Fashion Index
Fashion,
153
it is apparent that there is low mobility
across performance clusters. It is a challenge to
join players ranked in the top quintile. These
top performers have strong staying power as
two-thirds of the top quintile class of 2013
maintained their position in 2018. Their sustained
outperformance has been driven in part by decisive
moves aligned with industry trends, expansion
into growth segments and the thoughtful realloca-
tion of resources across the portfolio.
For players in the middle quintiles, the odds
of achieving top performance and moving up into
the top quintile is quite slim. In fact, 75 percent of
this middle range remain where they are and close
to 15 percent even slip into the bottom quintile.
Encouragingly, the highest mobility is
within the bottom quintile. More than 60 percent
of players ranked in the bottom quintile in 2013
have moved out of this laggard group, with 7
percent even rocketing up into the top quintile,
while we estimate bankruptcy rates in this quintile
to be just 3 percent over the five-year period.
A significant factor in likelihood of rank
improvement is capital eciency. While many
across the industry are investing to grow, top
climbers have been able to reduce invested capital
as a percentage of sales by 8 percentage points
compared to a 17 percentage point increase in those
who have dropped the most in ranking. These top
climbers have strengthened their value proposi-
tions and made eorts to align strategically both
on the consumer-facing side with brand-building,
pricing, product/design and experience as well
operationally to boost eciency along the value
chain. Financially, these eorts improve both
revenue growth and bottom-line eciency.
Companies stuck in the bottom fit into one
of three archetypes. Department stores account
for 40 percent of the bottom companies ranked by
economic profit, either because they are struggling
to modernise their format to compete with fast
fashion and e-commerce, or because they operate
in saturated markets. The second archetype is
brands that have seen revenues collapse as they
have fallen out of favour with consumers. The
final category is fast-growing digital start-ups
such as Farfetch, Global Fashion Group and
Jumia — which are still investing heavily in their
pursuit of rapid growth at the expense of profits. If
successful, these players have the highest chance
to leave the low performance cluster. However,
as investors are becoming increasingly impatient
with digital players that have yet to prove a path to
profitability (see Digital Recalibration), we may see
some of these companies change course.
Hidden Champions
The Super Winners are all public
companies as the economic profit analysis is based
on public data. However, there are several private
companies that would undoubtedly qualify to join
that group. This analysis includes fashion subsid-
iaries of public non-apparel parent companies
but excludes private companies that don’t earn
most of their revenues from fashion. While a more
fragmented group, private companies also wield
considerable power and influence in the fashion
industry. Collectively, combined revenue estimates
of private players generating more than $1 billion
revenue in 2018 are equivalent to about a third of
the total revenues of the 20 Super Winners. Most
of this is pooled among the private companies
generating more than $3 billion in sales. Family-
owned businesses account for more than 65
percent of these Hidden Champions.
Among these private players are Hidden
Champions, many of which are players that
successfully dominate their category, each with
a strong sense of self. Some of these players have
achieved strong global brand recognition, while
others are less well known. One of these Hidden
Champions is Chanel, a well-regarded symbol
of status and luxury with estimated revenues in
excess of $10 billion. Almost 110 years-old and in
its third generation of family ownership,
154
Chanel
has mastered its categories from high-end iconic
oerings such as its quilted handbags to aspira-
tional entry products such as lipsticks.
155
Also
McKinsey Global Fashion Index
benefiting from high brand perception, Rolex is one
of the few large independent and private luxury
watch brands remaining, known for their timeless
designs and commitment to precision.
At the opposite end of the price spectrum,
Primark leads in discount fashion by oering
stylish assortments at low prices in high-street
locations. What Primark shares with its luxury
Hidden Champion peers is a clear customer
value proposition. For Primark, it goes beyond
price to oering consumers the satisfaction of
finding a great value-for-money deal in a shopping
environment catering to its target group. In the
last decade, Primark’s expansion drive has put
many traditional discount and value apparel
retailers under pressure and triggered some to
renew their format. Commitment to this core
value proposition has enabled eciently strong
alignment in operations and strategy. This
commitment includes a focus on brick-and-mor-
tar only, a decision requiring Primark to look for
ways to renew the experience value of its stores
to attract younger customers despite online-first
shopping habits. Primark and its peers will need to
respond to the increased importance of sustaina-
bility among consumers going forward.
High expansion drive is also one of the
characteristics of Decathlon, one of the world’s
largest sporting goods retailers globally known
for exceptional private label oerings across a
comprehensive set of categories. Their strong
private labels are also ultra-segmented and
becoming more sophisticated to match rising
consumer expectations. Decathlon’s value segment
play in the sporting and outdoor space enables
the brand to capture a wider pool of fashion
consumers looking at sportswear as both fashion
and activewear.
156
Another vertically integrated player is
Deichmann, a clear leader in Europe for value
footwear and unbeatable in Germany in this
segment. With continued global and format
expansion, Deichmann is a third-generation family
enterprise. Family-ownership is cited by the
company to be one of its factors for success, saying
the “concept of a gradual, controlled growth as a
family-run business is still the right way forward”
for the company.
157
Today, Deichmann holds a
strong dedication to serving consumers and is
exploring digitisation and format rejuvenation.
Among companies earning between $3
and $5 billion in annual sales, Swarvoski stands
out with its strong global brand awareness.
Historically a leader in crystals and crystal
products, Swarovski has made its own play into
premium and luxury consumer segments through
Atelier Swarovski and designer collaborations.
Growing as a respected fashion jeweller with its
recognisable swan symbol, the time when this
fifth-generation crystal company was just known
for its collectibles are long gone. This growth has
been additive, with Swarovski remaining a strong
supplier to both the fashion industry and enter-
tainment industry — partnering with costume,
jewellery and set designers to maintain a strong
Hollywood presence.
158
Of a similar size, Bestseller stands out as
a house of independent brands. Among its broad
portfolio, Bestseller’s main brands — Vero Moda,
Jack & Jones and Only — compete with fast fashion
players. To do so, these brands are prioritising
refreshed retail formats, digitisation and revision of
product assortment in their strategies. In parallel,
Bestseller as a group has made improvements in
operating processes and inventory management
such as implementing the use of RFID.
159
As a category, footwear tends to be one
of the more fragmented with category leaders
found among smaller players delivering revenues
between $1 billion and $3 billion. Almost 200
years old and selling more than 50 million pairs of
shoes each year,
160
Clarks is one of these footwear
category leaders. Building on a historical archive
of more than 22,000 styles, Clarks maintains its
leading presence in the category by continuing to
push product innovation with enduring style and
comfort.
161
Another footwear Hidden Champion
is Bata Shoes, a vertically-integrated shoe player
The State of Fashion 2020
96
97
McKinsey Global Fashion Index
based in Switzerland that has built up a leading
position in several key emerging and frontier
markets around the world like India, Bangladesh
and Chile.
Operating privately has given many
companies more freedom than they might have
had in public hands and this flexibility has
helped sustain success. Chanel, for example, has
repeatedly insisted that the company is not, and
will not, be for sale, with Philippe Blondiaux, the
company’s chief financial ocer, reconfirming to
The Business of Fashion “for the hundredth time
this year”, that “Chanel is not for sale, Chanel is
not preparing for an IPO.” Blondiaux notes that
the company’s investments, including more than
$2 billion over 12 months in sustaining creativity
and innovation, are meant to maintain Chanel’s
independence.
162
Tory Burch similarly believes
that private operations enable the company to
deliver on its plans, letting company leaders focus
on running the business instead of worrying about
the volatility of the stock price or public scrutiny.
163
Nonetheless, the group of Hidden Champions
also undoubtedly includes players that are value
destructive, given a more limited investor base
that perhaps is more forgiving of a negative cost
of capital.
All in all, while the public companies steal
a lot of the industry spotlight, hidden champions
prove that a great deal of the industry’s value
sits elsewhere.
Looking Ahead — Apprehension Amid
Uncertainty
After a strong year in terms of economic
profit growth, the forecast fashion industry
revenue growth for 2020 is 3 to 4 percent, down
from the 3.5 to 4.5 percent growth predicted for
2019. The global outlook for consumer spending is
being depressed by rising trade tensions, political
uncertainty and economic concerns as central
banks take action.
In North America, slowing consumer
spending amid an ongoing tari war poses a
concern, especially given inevitable election-year
uncertainty. Emerging Asia-Pacific markets will
still be relatively strong, but retail sales in China
are already falling short of expectations. Mature
Europe will continue to suer from a wider
economic malaise and Brexit uncertainty, while
growth in emerging Europe, Latin America, and
the Middle East and Africa is expected to remain
stable overall, with some brighter spots, such as
Brazil and Nigeria.
Stronger price point polarisation is seen
in consumer purchasing behaviour in mature
Asia-Pacific and China. This will lead to continued
resilience in both the luxury and the value and
discount segments, while further squeezing the
middle market.
While clothing’s downtick is in line with
the lower industry forecast as consumers choose
to buy less overall and explore alternatives such
as rentals, sportswear is anticipated to maintain
the highest growth rate at 6 to 7 percent. The
success of sportswear powerhouse brands such as
Nike, Adidas and Lululemon will be supported by
the emergence of a range of smaller niche players
and the rise of outdoor and active brands. Growth
in jewellery and watches will remain low, but
handbags and luggage will continue to perform
well as luxury brands capitalise on the growth in
tourism from regions such as mature Asia-Pacific,
China and the Middle East.
Although this growth forecast shows only
an incremental slowdown in overall industry
growth in 2020, as highlighted in On High Alert,
geopolitical and trade tensions alongside intrinsic
industry challenges are leading to heightened
anxiety and wariness in fashion for the year ahead.
The State of Fashion 2020
SOURCE: MCKINSEY GLOBAL FASHION INDEX MGFI
Exhibit 19:
Fashion industry sales growth by region, category, and segment,
2019-2020
YEARONYEAR GROWTH, %
Total Fashion Industry
GEOGRAPHIC REGION
North America
Europe (mature)
Europe (emerging)
MEA
APAC (mature)
APAC (emerging)
Latin America
VALUE SEGMENT
Luxury
Aordable Luxury
Premium/bridge
Mid-market
Value
Discount
PRODUCT CATEGORY
Clothing
Footwear
Sportswear
Handbags and luggage
Jewellery and watches
3.5 - 4.5
2.5 - 3.5
1.5 - 2.5
4.5 - 5.5
3.0 - 4.0
2.0 - 3.0
6.5 - 7.5
2.5 - 3.5
4.0 - 5.0
3.5 - 4.5
2.5 - 3.5
1.5 - 2.5
5.0 - 6.0
4.0 - 5.0
4.0 - 5.0
2.5 - 3.5
6.0 - 7.0
4.5 - 5.5
1.5 - 2.5
3.0 - 4.0
2.0 - 3.0
1.0 - 2.0
4.5 - 5.5
3.0 - 4.0
2.0 - 3.0
6.0 - 7.0
2.5 - 3.5
4.0 - 5.0
3.0 - 4.0
2.0 - 3.0
1.5 - 2.5
5.0 - 6.0
4.0 - 5.0
3.5 - 4.5
2.5 - 3.5
6.0 - 7.0
4.5 - 5.5
1.5 - 2.5
2019 2020
99
100
The State of Fashion 2020
GLOSSARY
APAC (emerging)
American Samoa, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei,
Cambodia, China, Fiji, French Polynesia,
Guam, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Laos, Macau,
Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nauru, Nepal,
New Caledonia, North Korea, Papua New
Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands,
Sri Lanka, Thailand, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu,
Vietnam.
APAC (mature)
Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore,
South Korea.
Artiicial intelligence
The theory and development of computer
systems able to perform tasks that normally
require human intelligence, such as visual
perception, speech recognition, decision making
and translation between languages.
Baby boomers
Demographic cohort born circa 1946-1964,
following the “Silent Generation.”
Biodegradable
Material capable of being decomposed naturally
by bacteria when discarded as waste.
Biofabrication
The production of biologic products, typically
textiles in the fashion industry context, from
raw materials such as living cells, molecules,
extracellular matrices and biomaterials.
BoFMcKinsey State of Fashion 2020
Survey
Proprietary joint survey by The Business of
Fashion and McKinsey. It asks international
fashion executives and experts to rate their
business sentiment, investment plans, and
industry trends. 291 respondents participated
in the State of Fashion Survey for the State
of Fashion 2019 report between August and
September 2019.
Capital eiciency
A measure of profitability, used to assess how
eective a company is at turning capital into
financial performance.
Closed-loop recycling
A recycling process where post-consumer
waste is collected and used to manufacture
new products. The quality of materials are at
the similar levels and are cycled into the same
application or applications that require similar
quality.
COGS
An income statement item stating the total
costs used to create a product or service, which
has been sold.
EBITA
An income statement item that deducts
amortisation from earnings before interest and
taxes (EBIT). An alternative measure of income
a firm makes from its core operations.
EBITA margin
A measurement of a company’s EBITA as a
percentage of its total revenue.
Economic proit
A measure of value creation that looks at a
company’s profit less its cost of capital, thus
taking into account how much each company
invested to generate its performance. A
company creates value when its operating profit
exceeds the dollar cost of capital. Economic
Profit is defined as Net Operating Profit, less
Adjusted Taxes (NOPLAT) minus Capital
Charge (WACC multiplied by Invested Capital).
Engagement rate (social media)
On social media, the average ratio of likes and
comments to total followers.
E-textiles
Fabrics that contain digital components and
electronics. They are most typically used to
enhance aesthetics or performance.
Europe (emerging)
Albania, Andorra, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia,
Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia,
Hungary, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia,
Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia,
Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
Europe (mature)
Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Iceland, Ireland,
Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta,
Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom.
EV/sales
Enterprise value to sales compares a company’s
enterprise value to its annual sales. It is
typically used as a metric that quantifies the
purchasing cost of a company’s sales. Enterprise
value accounts for market capitalisation, debt,
and cash.
GCC
Gulf Cooperation Council countries — a political
and economic alliance of six Middle Eastern
countries, namely Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the
United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman.
Generation X
Demographic cohort born circa 1965–1981,
following the Baby Boomers.
Generation Z
Demographic cohort born circa 1996–2019,
following the millennial generation.
International Financial Reporting Standards
(IFRS)
Accounting standards used to establish
standardisation of reporting across
international boundaries. It is required in over
140 jurisdictions, including the EU, however
not in some major economies such as the
United States.
Latin America
Anguilla, Antigua, Argentina, Aruba, Bahamas,
Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Bolivia, Brazil,
British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands,
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Curacao,
Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El
Salvador, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala,
Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique,
Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru,
Sint Maarten, Suriname, St Kitts, St Lucia,
St Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and
Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela.
LGBTQ
Lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer,
questioning.
Machine learning
A form of artificial intelligence that automates
analytical model building, enabling systems to
“learn” with minimal human intervention.
McKinsey Global Fashion Index
Proprietary and copyrighted McKinsey tool
that provides a global and holistic industry
benchmark for the entire fashion industry.
The MGFI was first created for The State of
Fashion 2017 to track the industry performance
through three key variables: sales, operating
profit and economic profit. MGFI is composed of
an extensive list of public and private companies
spanning across market segments, product
categories and geographies. The analysis
of public companies is built with data from
McKinsey Corporate Performance Analytics.
MEA
Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Bahrain, Benin,
Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon,
Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad,
Comoros, Congo, Democratic Republic of
Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea,
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana,
Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Ivory
Coast, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait,
Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia,
Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Mali,
Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique,
Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan,
Qatar, Réunion, Rwanda, Sao Tomé e Príncipe,
Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra
Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan,
Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Tajikistan, Tanzania,
Togo, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Uganda, United
Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Zambia,
Zimbabwe.
Microplastics
Very small pieces of plastic, typically less than
5mm in length, that pollute the environment.
Can often be contributed by the shedding
of synthetic textiles during usage. Their
environmental harm is caused by their slow
degradation, which occurs over hundreds if not
thousands of years.
Millennials (Generation Y/Gen Y)
Demographic cohort born circa 1982–1995.
Are also commonly referred to as Generation
Y (this name is based on Generation X, the
generation that preceded them).
North America
Canada, Puerto Rico, United States of America.
Price segments
As definitions of market segments often vary
across sources, all companies in the MGFI
are categorised based on a Sales Price Index,
providing a range of prices for a standard basket
of products within each segment and home
market — thereby relying only on a quantitative
101
measure, whereby companies in each segment
price their items similarly.
Return rate
Rate of product returns.
SG&A
An income statement item stating all costs not
directly tied to making a product or service.
SME
Small and medium enterprises.
Super Winners
The top 20 fashion players by economic profit.
In 2018, they collectively contributed 138
percent of the fashion industry’s economic
profit.
TRS
A measure of stock performance, factoring
in capital gains and dividends to show total
return to shareholders. It is expressed as an
annualised percentage.
Value creator
A company generating positive economic profit.
Value destroyer
A company generating negative economic profit.
Value segment
Segmentation by price of the fashion markets
and participating companies used in the
McKinsey Global Fashion Index and the
BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Survey.
The companies are categorised in 6 segments,
which are based on a price index (not price
perception) across a wide basket of goods and
geographies. The segments comprise from
lowest to highest price segment: Discount,
Value, Mid-market, Premium/Bridge,
Aordable Luxury, Luxury.
The State of Fashion 2020 infographics:
1. On High Alert
Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion 2020
Survey, The Business of Fashion and McKinsey
& Company, September 2019
2. Beyond China
Source: United Nations, Population Division,
World Population Prospects 2019. Includes
India, Southeast Asia, Brazil, Russia, UAE and
Saudi Arabia
3. Next Gen Social
Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion 2020
Survey, The Business of Fashion and McKinsey
& Company, September 2019
4. In the Neighbourhood
Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion 2020
Survey, The Business of Fashion and McKinsey
& Company, September 2019
5. Sustainability First
Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion 2020
Survey, The Business of Fashion and McKinsey
& Company, September 2019
6. Materials Revolution
Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion 2020
Survey, The Business of Fashion and McKinsey
& Company, September 2019
7. Inclusive Culture
Source: McKinsey analysis based on data for
over 300 public fashion companies in our
McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI)
8. Cross-Border Challengers
Source: “Winning at Cross-Border eCommerce:
Growth, Trends, Opportunities and Strategy in
2019”, eTail and Vinculum, May 2019
9. Unconventional Conventions
Source: Expert interviews
10. Digital Recalibration
Source: Based on stock price data on Yahoo
Finance as of Oct 21st close. EURUSD
rates used: Jul 2nd 1.1287, Oct 21st 1.1152.
Includes IPOs during Nov 2017 – Oct 2019:
Global Fashion Group, The RealReal, Jumia
Technologies, Ruhnn Holding, Mogu, Revolve,
Stitch Fix and Farfetch. Adika Style excluded
due to limited liquidity
Infographics:
Exhibit 1–2. Industry Outlook
Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion 2020
Survey
Exhibit 3. On High Alert
Source: “Economic Conditions Snapshot,
September 2019: McKinsey Global Survey
results”, McKinsey, September 2019, https://
www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/
strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/
economic-conditions-snapshot-september-
2019-mckinsey-global-survey-results
Exhibit 4. Beyond China
Source: United Nations, Population Division,
World Population Prospects 2019
Exhibit 5. Next Gen Social
Source: “The Global State of Digital in 2019
Report”, Hootsuite/ We are Social 2019,
January 2019, https://hootsuite.com/pages/
digital-in-2019#accordion-115547
Exhibit 6. In the Neighbourhood
Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion 2020
Survey, The Business of Fashion and McKinsey
& Company, September 2019
Exhibit 7. Sustainability First
Source: McKinsey 2019 US consumer cohort
survey
Exhibit 8. Materials Revolution
Source: McKinsey S&CF insights, Growth
Analytics
Exhibit 9. Inclusive Culture
Source: The Business of Fashion employee
survey 2019, n = 1,801
Exhibit 10. Cross-Border Challengers
Source: “Marketplaces year in review
2018”, Marketplace Pulse, https://www.
marketplacepulse.com/marketplaces-year-in-
review-2018. 2019 data obtained directly from
Marketplace Pulse
Exhibit 11. Unconventional Conventions
Source: BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion 2020
Survey, The Business of Fashion and McKinsey
& Company, September 2019
Exhibit 12. Digital Recalibration
Source: Total mentions of “digital”, “online”
and “e-commerce” in earnings call transcripts
for top 10 players by economic profit in MGFI
INFOGRAPHICS
102
The State of Fashion 2020
END NOTES
1 “World Economic Outlook, July 2019: Still
Sluggish Global Growth”, International
Monetary Fund, https://www.imf.org/en/
Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/07/18/
WEOupdateJuly2019
2 “WTO warns trade wars threaten living
standards and jobs”, BBC News, 1st October
2019, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/
business-49899841.
3 “China’s US Exports Tumble as Taris Bite”,
The Wall Street Journal, 14th October 2019,
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-u-s-ex-
ports-tumble-as-taris-bite-11571037788
4 “Economic Conditions Snapshot, September
2019: McKinsey Global Survey results”,
McKinsey & Company, September 2019. https://
www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/
strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/
economic-conditions-snapshot-septem-
ber-2019-mckinsey-global-survey-results
5 “WTO lowers trade forecast as tensions
unsettle global economy”, World Trade
Organisation, 1st October 2019, https://www.
wto.org/english/news_e/pres19_e/pr840_e.htm
6 “Sta Working Paper No. 818: The impact
of Brexit on UK firms”, Bank of England,
August 2019,https://www.bankofengland.
co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2019/
the-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-firms.
pdf?la=en&hash=2C3B6A5F5246885FB7D-
DD8C894666EBCA420CF81
7 Thomas, Daniel, “UK corporate warnings on
Brexit soar amid ‘no-deal’ fears”, The Financial
Times, 9th September 2019, https://www.
ft.com/content/9811b7a2-d225-11e9-a0bd-
ab8ec6435630
8 Butler, Sarah, “Retailers call for action as high
street store closures soar”, The Guardian, 11th
September 2019, https://www.theguardian.
com/business/2019/sep/11/retailers-call-for-
action-as-high-street-store-closures-soar
9 Gestal, Iria P., “More clouds for European
retail: ‘anaemic’ sales and weak profit-
ability, Moody’s says”, MDS The Global
Fashion Business Journal, 2nd October
2019, https://www.themds.com/markets/
more-clouds-for-european-retail-anae-
mic-sales-and-weak-profitability-moodys-says.
html
10 “China’s Retail Sales Growth Falls to
16-Year Low”, Reuters via The Business of
Fashion, 15th May 2019, https://www.busi-
nessoashion.com/articles/news-analysis/
chinas-retail-sales-growth-falls-to-16-year-
low-as-trade-war-risks-rise
11 “Bubbles pop, downturns stop”, McKinsey
Quarterly, May 2019, https://www.
mckinsey.com/business-functions/strat-
egy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/
bubbles-pop-downturns-stop
12 McKinsey analysis, based on Euromonitor
data for apparel and footwear sales
13 LVMH website, https://www.lvmh.com/
group/milestones-lvmh/1593-to-the-present/
14 “Louis Vuitton Now Sees “Unheard
of” Growth in China”, Bloomberg, June
2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/
articles/2019-06-05/lvmh-lifts-luxury-shares-
on-vuitton-s-unheard-of-china-growth
15 “Kering’s Gucci joins peers in defying China
fears”, Business Times, February 2019, https://
www.businesstimes.com.sg/consumer/kerings-
gucci-joins-peers-in-defying-china-fears
16 “Bullish Signs From Lululemon Earnings”,
SeekingAlpha, September 2019,. https://
seekingalpha.com/article/4291567-bullish-
signs-lululemon-earnings
17 H&M Group Annual report 2018, https://
hmgroup.com/investors/reports.html
18 Inditex’s Annual report 2018, https://www.
inditex.com/investors/investor-relations/
annual-reports
19 “China Digital Consumer Trends in 2019”,
McKinsey & Co, September 2019, ht tp s://
www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/china/
china-digital-consumer-trends-in-2019
20 McKinsey FashionScope analysis
21 World Economic Outlook, July 2019, IMF,
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/
Issues/2019/07/18/WEOupdateJuly2019
22 McKinsey FashionScope data
23 McKinsey FashionScope, 2018 clothing
market size in USD by country
24 “E-commerce Industry in India”, India Brand
Equity Foundation, August 2019, https://www.
ibef.org/industry/ecommerce.aspx
25 Euromonitor estimates for internet retailing
in the apparel and footwear market in India
26 “Digital in 2019”, We are social and
Hootsuite, https://wearesocial.com/
global-digital-report-2019
27 The World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/
country/indonesia
28 World population data, Worldometers as of
October 2019, https://www.worldometers.info/
world-population/
29 “Louis Vuitton, Tiany and Dior show
record sales in Russia”, Oreanda, 2nd
August 2019, https://www.oreanda.ru/en/
torgovlya_i_uslugi/louis-vuitton-tiany-
and-dior-show-record-sales-in-russia/
art icle1274 667/
30 “Russian E-Commerce Market Grows by
26%”, The Moscow Times, 3rd September
2019, https://www.themoscowtimes.
com/2019/09/03/russian-e-commerce-market-
grows-by-26-a67126
31 “Chinese Tourists to Russia Now Spending
Over US$1 billion a year”, Russia Briefing, 26th
August 2019, https://www.russia-briefing.com/
news/chinese-tourists-russia-now-spending-
us-1-billion-year.html/
32 The World Bank, https://databank.
worldbank.org/data/download/POP.pdf
33 “Tari remains a critical trade barrier for
the textile and apparel sector”, FASH445 Global
Apparel & Textile Trade and Sourcing, Dec
2017, https://shenglufashion.com/2017/12/13/
tari-remains-a-critical-trade-barrier-for-
the-textile-and-apparel-sector-updated-
december-2017/
34 McKinsey analysis, based on Euromonitor
data
35 McKinsey FashionScope data
36 World Population Prospects 2019, United
Nations Population Division, Department of
Economic and Social Aairs
37 “Digital 2019: Essential insights into
how people around the world use the
internet, mobile devices, social media, and
e-commerce”, We are social and Hootsuite,
January 2019, https://hootsuite.com/pages/
digital-in-2019#accordion-115547
38 McKinsey analysis, based on Euromonitor
data for “Apparel and footwear” market in 2018
39 “e-Conomy SEA 2018: Southeast Asia’s
internet economy hits an inflection point”,
Google -Temasek report, November 2018,
https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/intl/
en-apac/tools-resources/research-studies/e-
conomy-sea-2018-southeast-asias-internet-
economy-hits-inflection-point/
40 McKinsey analysis, based on Euromonitor
data for “Apparel and footwear” market in 2018
41 “Russia Consumer Confidence Q3 2019”,
Focus Economics, 4th October 2019, ht tp s://
www.focus-economics.com/countries/
russia/news/consumer-confidence/
consumer-confidence-improves-but-re-
mains-firmly-entrenched
42 “Louis Vuitton, Tiany and Dior show
record sales in Russia”, Oreanda, 2nd
August 2019, https://www.oreanda.ru/en/
torgovlya_i_uslugi/louis-vuitton-tiany-
and-dior-show-record-sales-in-russia/
art icle1274 667/
43 “Chinese tourists to spend $1.1bn in Russia
this year”, Russian Travel Digest, 9th September
2019, https://russtd.com/chinese-tourists-to-
spend-$1,1bn-in-russia-this-year.html
44 Euromonitor data for Russia, internet
retailing as a proportion of all apparel and
footwear sales
45 McKinsey analysis based on Euromonitor
market size data, and population data from
United Nations Population Division
46 “Digital 2019: Global Digital Overview”,
Hootsuite and We are social, January
2019, https://datareportal.com/reports/
digital-2019-global-digital-overview
47 “eMarketer reduces US time spent estimates
for Facebook and Snapchat”, eMarketer, 27th
May 2019, https://content-na1.emarketer.com/
103
emarketer-reduces-us-time-spent-estimates-
for-facebook-and-snapchat
48 “The Golden Age of Instagram Marketing Is
Over”, The Business of Fashion, August 2019.
https://www.businessoashion.com/articles/
professional/social-media-advertising-ris-
ing-costs-instagram-facebook
49 Facebook Inc forecasts, CNN business,
https://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/
forecast.html?symb=FB
50 “Study: Social media overtakes print for 1st
time in global ad spending”, Mobile Marketer,
8th October 2019, https://www.mobilemarketer.
com/news/study-social-media-overtakes-print-
for-1st-time-in-global-ad-spending/564531/
51 “The Golden Age of Instagram Marketing is
over”, The Business of Fashion, 5th August 2019,
https://www.businessoashion.com/articles/
professional/social-media-advertising-ris-
ing-costs-instagram-facebook
52 Hammett, Ellen, “P&G puts focus on reach:
It’s a more important measure than spend”,
Marketing Week, 17th June 2019, https://www.
marketingweek.com/pg-reach-ad-spend/
53 “’Mommy bloggers’ study reveals factors
that drive success in social influencer
marketing”, Newswise, 29th July 2019,
https://www.newswise.com/articles/
mommy-bloggers-study-reveals-factors-that-
drive-success-in-social-influencer-marketing
54 “Instagram influencer engagement hovers
near all-time lows, study says”, Mobile Marketer,
9th July 2019, https://www.mobilemarketer.
com/news/instagram-influencer-engagement-
hovers-near-all-time-lows-study-says/558331/
55 “’Mommy bloggers’ study reveals factors
that drive success in social influencer
marketing”, Newswise, 29th July 2019,
https://www.newswise.com/articles/
mommy-bloggers-study-reveals-factors-that-
drive-success-in-social-influencer-marketing
56 BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion 2020 Survey
57 “50 years of Ralph Lauren”, High
Snobiety, https://www.highsnobiety.com/p/
ralph-lauren-brand-history/
58 “Fortnite earned record $2.4bn in 2018,
the ‘most annual revenue of any game in
history’”, The Telegraph, 17th January 2019,
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gaming/news/
fortnite-earned-annual-revenue-game-histo-
ry-2018/
59 “Why gamers mean big business”, The
Business of Fashion, 20th February 2019,
https://www.businessoashion.com/articles/
professional/why-female-gamers-are-next-lev-
el-consumers-mac-honour-of-kings
60 McKinsey analysis based on WeChat Social
Commerce Report 2018
61 McKinsey New Age of the Consumer US
Survey 2019
62 ”How mobile-first connections drive local
business”, Facebook Business, 23rd May
2019, https://www.facebook.com/business/
news/insights/how-mobile-first-connec-
tions-drive-local-business
63 Forrester analytics: online fashion retail
forecast, 2017 to 2022 (global) and Forrester
analytics: luxury retail forecast, 2018 to 2023
(global)
64 McKinsey and Red Associates - UK Grocery
Survey 2015, UK Ethnographic Research 2015
65 McKinsey Returns management survey 2018
66 “Inside Nordstrom Local: Lessons learned,
the NY opportunity”, WWD, 5th September
2019, https://wwd.com/business-news/
retail/nordstrom-nordstrom-local-new-york-
city-1203254475/
67 “Inside Anthropologie’s new ‘neighbour-
hood’ store concept”; Drapers, 11th April
2019, https://www.drapersonline.com/news/
top-feature/inside-the-new-anthropologie-lo-
cal-store/7035352.article
68 “Developers push mixed-use projects amid
changing customer lifestyles”, The Nation
Thailand, 18th March 2018, https://www.
nationthailand.com/Real_Estate/30341200
69 Hall, Casey, “Is Suburbia China’s Next
Retail Gold Mine?”, The Business of Fashion,
9th October 2019, https://www.busines-
soashion.com/articles/professional/
shanghais-unlikely-retail-eldorado-suburbia
70 McKinsey Omnichannel Apparel Survey,
2018, BRP 2019 Customer Engagement Survey,
Forbes, Think With Google, Marketing Dive,
Forrester
71 Gray, Alistair, “McKinsey to start selling
underwear and make-up”, Financial Times, 26th
September 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/
ecac8728-df3c-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc
72 Ibid
73 McKinsey Omnichannel Apparel Survey,
2018, BRP 2019 Customer Engagement Survey,
Forbes, Think With Google, Marketing Dive
74 Chinasamy, Jasmine, “A monstrous
disposable industry: Fast facts about fast
fashion”, Unearthed, 12th September 2019,
https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2019/09/12/
fast-facts-about-fast-fashion/
75 Guilbault, Laure and Kent, Sarah, “Kering
Chief to Present Industry Sustainability Pact
to G7”, Business of Fashion, 23rd August 2019,
https://www.businessoashion.com/articles/
news-analysis/kering-chief-to-present-indus-
try-sustainability-pact-to-g7
76 Hitti, Natashah, “Creativity in fashion
“doesn’t mean creating more stu”, says
Extinction Rebellion’s Sara Arnold”, Dezeen,
24th September 2019, https://www.dezeen.
com/2019/09/24/extinction-rebellion-lon-
don-fashion-week-funeral-interview/
77 McKinsey New Age of the Consumer US
Survey, 2019
78 Ibid
79 “Fashion’s new must-have: sustainable
sourcing at scale”, McKinsey Apparel CPO
Survey 2019, October 2019, https://www.
mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/
fashions-new-must-have-sustainable-sourcing-
at-scale
80 “European CEOs: Changing consumer
behaviours is the next sustainability frontier”,
edie, 9th October 2019
https://www.edie.net/news/7/
European-CEOs--Changing-consumer-
behaviours-is-the-next-sustainability-frontier/
81 Ibid
82 Farra, Emily, “150 brands have joined
Emmanuel Macron’s “Fashion Pact” to make the
fashion industry more sustainable”, Vogue, 26th
August 2019, https://www.vogue.com/article/
fashion-pact-sustainability-g7-summit-emma-
nuel-macron
83 “24 new companies join the
Fashion Pact”, Kering, 25th October
2019, https://www.kering.com/en/
news/24-new-companies-join-the-fashion-pact
84 Conlon, Scarlett, “Zara clothes to be made
from 1005 sustainable fabrics by 2025”,
The Guardian, 17th July 2019, https://www.
theguardian.com/fashion/2019/jul/17/
zara-collections-to-be-made-from-100-sus-
tainable-fabrics
85 “H&M Group Sustainability Report
2017”, H&M, https://about.hm.com/content/
dam/hmgroup/groupsite/documents/
masterlanguage/CSR/reports/HM_group_
SustainabilityReport_2017.pdf
86 Segran, Elizabeth, “How Everlane is building
the next-gen clothing brand”, Fast Company,
22nd February 2018, https://www.fastcompany.
com/40525607/how-everlane-is-building-the-
next-gen-clothing-brand
87 “Fashion’s new must-have: sustainable
sourcing at scale”, McKinsey Apparel CPO
Survey 2019, October 2019, https://www.
mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/
fashions-new-must-have-sustainable-sourcing-
at-scale
88 “The Sustainability EDIT”, Edited, https://
try.edited.com/sustainability/
89 Hackling, Celia, “Pulse of the fashion
industry 2019 update released”, Global
Fashion Agenda, 7th May 2019, https://www.
globalfashionagenda.com/pulse-of-fashion-in-
dustry-2019-update-released/#
90 Bauck, Whitney, “Fashion brands are
claiming to be ‘carbon neutral’ — but is it
greenwashing?”, Fashionista, 26th September
2019, https://fashionista.com/2019/09/
carbon-neutral-fashion-brands-greenwashing
91 Mahamadi, Hiba, “Eco-fashion brand
‘exaggerated’ credentials”, Ecologist, 24th
September 2019, https://theecologist.org/2019/
sep/24/eco-fashion-brand-exaggerat-
ed-green-credentials
104
The State of Fashion 2020
92 Segran, Elizabeth, “H&M, Zara, and other
fashion brands are tricking shoppers with vague
sustainability claims”, 7th August 2019, https://
www.fastcompany.com/90385370/hm-zara-
and-other-fashion-brands-are-tricking-con-
sumers-with-vague-sustainability-claims
93 Lane, Mark, “Consumers: missing link
for Higg Index?”, Apparel Insider, 26th
July 2019, https://apparelinsider.com/
consumers-missing-link-for-higg-index/
94 McKinsey Strategy and Corporate Finance
(S&CF) Growth Analytics, based on 2013-Q1
2018 patent data, published with an 18-month
delay. Estimate of patent application increase
based on McKinsey projection for data to end
2019
95 “Fashion’s new must-have: sustainable
sourcing at scale”, McKinsey Apparel CPO
Survey 2019, October 2019, https://www.
mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/
fashions-new-must-have-sustainable-sourcing-
at-scale
96 BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion 2020 Survey
97 McKinsey New Age of the Consumer US
Survey 2019
98 “Circular Economy: Implementation
of the Circular Economy Action Plan”,
European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/
environment/circular-economy/
99 Trash2Cash blog, 3rd December 2018,
https://www.trash2cashproject.eu/
trash-2-cash-blog-page/tag/EU+project
100 “First Devan R-Vital CBD-infused textiles
hit the market”, Fibre2Fashion, 23rd August
2019, https://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/
apparel-news/first-devan-r-vital-cbd-infused-
textiles-hit-the-market-251448-newsdetails.
htm
101 “Recycling facilities takes fashion
industry one step closer to circularity”,
H&M press release, 3rd September 2018,
https://hmfoundation.com/news/new-facil-
ities-for-textile-blend-recycling-takes-fash-
ion-industry-one-step-closer-to-circularity/
102 “3D printer threads electronic fibers onto
fabric”, Science Daily, 27th March 2019,
https://www.sciencedaily.com/
releases/2019/03/190327112605.html
103 “Japanese Company Turns Raw Silk into a
Highly Conductive Wearable”, Springwise, 26th
March 2019, https://www.springwise.com/
japanese-company-turns-raw-silk-into-a-high-
ly-conductive-wearable/
104 “Global Smart Textile Market Growth,
Size, Share, Trends, Revenue, Demand,
Industry Analysis, Key Players, Business
Opportunities and Forecast 2019-2025”,
Reuters Plus, 17th April 2019, https://www.
reuters.com/brandfeatures/venture-capital/
article?id=101277
105 “Google releases luxury backpack that
syncs with your phone….for $1k?!”, the Hustle,
16th September 2019, https://thehustle.
co/09162019-google-backpack-jacquard/
106 “Recycling facilities takes fashion
industry one step closer to circularity”,
H&M press release, 3rd September 2018,
https://hmfoundation.com/news/new-facil-
ities-for-textile-blend-recycling-takes-fash-
ion-industry-one-step-closer-to-circularity/
107 “Innovative Textiles – reinventing fashion”,
European Commission, 3rd July 2019, https://
ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportuni-
ties/portal/screen/opportunities/topic-details/
ce-fnr-14-2020
108 “DoD Announces Award of New
Revolutionary Fibers and Textiles
Manufacturing Innovation Hub Lead
in Cambridge, Massachusetts”, US
Department of Defense, 1st April 2016,
https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/
Releases/Release/Article/710462/
dod-announces-award-of-new-revolution-
ary-fibers-and-textiles-manufacturing-inno/
109 Betteride, Thom, “There’s Now a Lottery
for This North Face x Spiber Parka Made of
Fermented Proteins”, Highsnobiety, August
2019, https://www.highsnobiety.com/p/
the-north-face-spiber-moon-parka/
110
Wicker, Alden, “The Future of Leather Is
Growing in a New Jersey Lab--No Animals
Needed”, March/April 2018 issue of Inc.com,
https://www.inc.com/magazine/201804/
alden-wicker/prototype-modern-meadow-lab-
grown-leather.html
111 “A New Textiles Economy: Redesigning
Fashion’s Future”, Ellen Macarthur Foundation
and Circular Fibres Initiative, 2017, ht tp s://
www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/assets/
downloads/A-New-Textiles-Economy.pdf
112 Tai, Cordelia, “Fall 2019 Runway Diversity
Report: Racial and age diversity step forward,
size and gender inclusivity step back”, The
Fashion Spot, 25th March 2019, https://www.
thefashionspot.com/runway-news/828413-di-
versity-report-fall-2019-runways/
113 Ilchi, Layla, “How fashion and beauty brands
are giving back for pride month 2019”, WWD,
31st May 2019, https://wwd.com/fashion-news/
fashion-scoops/pride-2019-how-fashion-beau-
ty-brands-giving-back-1203144289/
114 Jahshan, Elias, “Gucci invests $10m for
diversity after blackface scandal”, Retail
Gazette, 22nd March 2019, https://www.
retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/03/gucci-splash-
es-10m-diversity-blackface-scandal/
115 “2018: Edelman Earned Brand: Brands
take a stand”, Edelman, October 2018, ht tp s://
www.edelman.com/sites/g/files/aatuss191/
files/2018-10/2018_Edelman_Earned_Brand_
Global_Report.pdf
116 “Millennials likely to be the biggest
spenders this holiday season, Accenture
survey reveals”, Business Wire, 1st
October 2019, https://www.businesswire.
com/news/home/20180930005037/en/
Millennials-Biggest-Spenders-Holiday-Season-
Accenture-Survey
117 “For people with disabilities, a trend in
“adaptive” clothing”, CBS News, 12th December
2018, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/
for-people-with-disabilities-a-trend-in-adap-
tive-clothing/
118 “Buying Power: Quick Take”, Catalyst, 27th
November 2018, https://www.catalyst.org/
research/buying-power/
119 “Black superstars pitch Adidas shoes. Its
black workers say they’re sidelined”, The New
York Times, 19th June 2019, https://www.
nytimes.com/2019/06/19/business/adidas-di-
versity-employees.html
120 “Inclusion and diversity in the American
fashion industry”, CFDA, PVH and the Dagoba
Group, January 2019,, https://cfda.com/news/
introducing-a-briefing-on-diversity-inclu-
sion-in-american-fashion
121 Hunt, Vivian, Yee, Lareina, Prince, Sara,
and Dixon-Fyle, Sundiatu, “Delivering
through Diversity”, McKinsey & Company,
January 2019, https://www.mckinsey.com/
business-functions/organization/our-insights/
delivering-through-diversity
122 Ibid
123 “Marketplaces Year in Review
2018”, Marketplace Pulse,https://www.
marketplacepulse.com/marketplaces-year-in-
review-2018#wish. 2019 data supplied directly
from Marketplace Pulse for October 2019
124 “Development of Cross-border E-commerce
through Parcel Delivery, Study for the European
Commission, Directorate-General for Internal
Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs”,
Wik Consult for the European Commission,
February 2019, https://www.wik.org/fileadmin/
Studien/2019/ET0219218ENN_ParcelsStudy_
Final.pdf
125 “The Problem With Buying Cheap Stu
Online”, The Atlantic, May 2018, https://www.
theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/05/
wish-china-cheap-stu/560861/
126 “Yiwu Export, One stop service for
your China purchases”, Yiwu Export
website, https://www.yiwu-export.
com/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMImr7-gNiO-
5QIVmLPtCh0ATAz0EAAYAyAAEgIsafD_BwE
127 “Alibaba acquires NetEase Kaola in deal
worth $2 billion”, Tech Crunch, September
2019, https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/05/
alibaba-acquires-netease-kaola-in-deal-worth-
2-billion/
128 “Tokopedia raises $1.1b from SoftBank,
Alibaba to evolve into infrastruc-
ture-as-a-service”, TechInAsia, December
2018, https://www.techinasia.com/
tokopedia-raises-11b-softbank-alibaba
END NOTES
105
129 “Alibaba doubles down on Lazada
with fresh $2B investment and new
CEO”, Techcrunch, March 2018,
https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/18/
alibaba-doubles-down-on-lazada/
130 “Bukalapak launches BukaGlobal, opening
platform to international uses”, TechinAsia,
May 2019, https://www.techinasia.com/
bukalapak-launch-bukaglobal-opening-plat-
form-international-users
131 “Tokopedia, Gojek, and Grab partner with
Jakarta’s government to accelerate smart
city development”, KrASIA, September 2019,
https://kr-asia.com/tokopedia-gojek-and-gr-
ab-partner-with-jakartas-government-to-ac-
celerate-smart-city-development
132 Fedorenko, Sasha, “Alipay and Adyen team
up to streamline global payments on Alibaba
marketplace ecosystem”, Tamebay, August
2019, https://tamebay.com/2019/08/alipay-
and-adyen-team-up-to-streamline-global-pay-
ments-on-alibaba-marketplace-ecosystem.html
133 “Amazon sells clothes from
factories other retailers blacklist”,
The Wall Street Journal, 23rd October
2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/
amazon-sells-clothes-from-factories-other-re-
tailers-shun-as-dangerous-11571845003
134 BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion 2020
survey, n=182
135 “Retailer Insight: Why the role of the buyer
has changed so much”, Drapers, 21st August
2017, https://www.drapersonline.com/news/
comment/retailer-insight-why-the-role-of-the-
buyer-has-changed-so-much/7025359.article
136 Xie, Aroma, “In China, Showrooms
Blossom”, The Business of Fashion, 19th
January 2015, https://www.businessof-
fashion.com/articles/global-currents/
showrooms-blossom-china
137 Ontimeshow, https://www.ontimeshow.
com/en/about
138 Ontimeshow Company Profile, Modem,
http://www.modemonline.com/fashion/
mini-web-sites/tradeshows/references/
ontimeshow
139 Abel, Katie, “Magic’s Shows are
Coming Together Under One Roof at
the Las Vegas Convention Center”,
FootwearNews, 6th February 2019, https://
footwearnews.com/2019/business/retail/
magic-trade-show-las-vegas-convention-
center-move-1202738975/
140 Ahmed, Osman, “Will Opening Runway
Shows to the Public be a Game Changer
for Fashion Week?”, 22nd July 2019,
Vogue, https://www.vogue.co.uk/article/
london-fashion-week-shows-open-to-public
141 Wynne, Alex, “Blossom Premiere
Vision Driven by Demand for High-end,
Sustainable Fabrics”, 9th July 2019, WWD,
https://wwd.com/fashion-news/textiles/
blossom-premiere-vision-driven-by-demand-
for-high-end-sustainable-fabrics-1203217372/
142 Mentions of “online”, “e-commerce”,
“ecommerce” and “digital” in year-end earnings
calls across our top 10 super winners, from
company earnings call transcripts
143 McKinsey Growth analytics, as of October
2019
144 Winck, Ben, “The batch of companies
IPOing in 2019 is the least profitable since
the tech bubble, Goldman Sachs finds,”
MarketsInsider, 18th September 2019, https://
markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/
ipo-market-new-public-companies-least-profit-
able-since-tech-bubble-2019-9-1028534694
145 “57. Mike Wilson: Are Markets Rethinking
Pricey Growth Stocks?”, Morgan Stanley
Thoughts on the market podcast, 30th
September 2019
146 McKinsey analysis, as of October 21st.
Includes IPOs in Nov 2017 – Oct 2019 -
Global Fashion Group, The RealReal, Jumia
Technologies, Ruhnn Holding, Mogu, Revolve,
Farfetch. Adika Style excluded due to limited
liquidity
147 “Poshmark to delay IPO until 2020”,
Bloomberg via The Business of Fashion,
3rd September 2019, https://www.busines-
soashion.com/articles/news-analysis/
poshmark-to-delay-ipo-until-2020
148
“Jet.com falls by wayside as Walmart
focuses on its website, online grocery”, Reuters,
June 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/
us-walmart-jet-com/jetcom-falls-by-wayside-
as-walmart-focuses-on-its-website-online-gro-
cery-idUSKCN1TD2PS
149 “Bonobos Trims Jobs as Owner
Walmart Seeks to Cut E-Commerce Losses”,
The Wall Street Journal, 7th October
2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/
bonobos-cuts-jobs-as-owner-walmart-seeks-
to-cut-e-commerce-losses-11570474405
150 “Rue La La buys Gilt Groupe, combining
two popular flash sale sites”, Fortune, 4th
June 2018, https://fortune.com/2018/06/04/
rue-la-la-buys-gilt-groupe-combining-two-
popular-flash-sale-sites/
151 McKinsey & Company’s “Value Creation
in Fashion”, proprietary research of 180 global
apparel, fashion and luxury players which
decomposes total returns to shareholders and
underling drivers
152 Zipser, Daniel, “The real reason why
Chinese consumers prefer local brands”,
McKinsey & Company, 14th December
2017, https://www.mckinsey.com/cn/
our-insights/perspectives-on-china-blog/
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106
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