Chicago, Illinois
October 16, 2006
Summary of the
2006 USDA
Data Users Meeting
2006 USDA Data Users Meeting
Chicago O’Hare Airport – Rosemont
Doubletree Hotel
October 16, 2006
AGENDA
12:00 pm
Registration
12:30
Introduction and Overview
Carol House
National Agricultural Statistics Service
12:45
Agency Reviews
John Van Dyke
Agricultural Marketing Service
Janet Perry
Economic Research Service
Patrick Packnett
Foreign Agricultural Service
Steve Wiyatt
National Agricultural Statistics Service
Gerald Bange
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Diane Oberg
U.S. Census Bureau
2:00
Open forum for questions and comments from participants
2:20
Break
Open forum continues
4:20
Concluding comments
4:30 Special Presentation: Jon Seltzer
University of Minnesota
Project with ERS on Conversion Factors
http://www.usda.gov/nass/
Agricultural Marketing Service 2006
The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) includes six commodity programs: Cotton, Dairy,
Fruit and Vegetable, Livestock and Seed, Poultry, and Tobacco. The programs employ
specialists who provide standardization, grading, and market news services for those
commodities. They enforce such Federal Laws as the Perishable Agricultural Commodities Act
and the Federal Seed Act.
AMS commodity programs also oversee marketing agreements and orders, administer research
and promotion programs, and purchase commodities for Federal food programs.
CURRENT ISSUES OF INTEREST
MANDATORY PRICE REPORTING:
The Livestock Mandatory Reporting Act of 1999 (Act) was reauthorized by Congress on
September 20, 2006, with an expiration date of 2010. Hog reporting provisions were amended to
separate barrows and gilts from sows and boars to include additional sow packers, change the
release time for the prior day slaughter report to late morning, and include a net price distribution
report. AMS will amend the hog regulations to coincide with the provisions in the Act and
review the sheep and lamb regulations to identify and amend regulations that have been
requested by the industry.
WEB PORTAL ENHANCEMENTS:
The Market News Portal was officially released to the public October, 2005 with fruit and
vegetable and livestock and grain information. It has proven to be extremely popular as it
empowers users of Market News data like never before. For the first time, customers can access
directly the Market News Information System (MNIS) or database. Additionally, they can
customize the Portal to meet their individual information needs and can download the data in the
format they find most useful. The Portal also offers currency and metric conversion as well as
customized weather information.
As market reporters and customers have used the Portal, they have identified several key areas
for improvement. These areas of improvement include enhanced graphing capability, access to
large blocks of data, and simpler tools for first time or inexperienced users. AMS will add the
other commodities to the Portal as resources become available, such as poultry, dairy and cotton.
MARKET INFORMATION ORGANIZATION OF THE AMERICAS:
The Market Information Organization of the Americas (MIOA) continues to make progress on
its goals of facilitating the timely and reliable exchange of market information on the agricultural
markets in the countries of the Americas, and to work towards developing guidelines to
standardize methodology, terminology, and technology. MIOA has just had its regular annual
meeting, held in Cartagena, Colombia, where the consultant hired by the organization delivered
his assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the market information systems in each of the
19 member countries. One of the first products of the study was the identification of “best
practices” within the various countries. These best practices will form the basis for a Managers’
Workshop to be held in the spring of 2007. The main goal is to improve market information
systems across the Americas, to the mutual benefit of all members of MIOA and their customers.
MIOA currently has a website that links each of the institutions within the member countries, but
it is a static site. The goal is to create a more functional, dynamic site allowing a single point of
entry for market information in every country in the Americas. The site is hosted by the
InterAmerican Institute for Cooperation in Agriculture (IICA), and is funded by AMS. IICA and
the Executive Committee of MIOA will be creating a plan in the coming months as to how to
further develop the site and work towards the goal of building a powerful and useful website.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE DATA:
In the interest of facilitating international trade, several Federal agencies are working together to
develop the ACE/ITDS project, one of the largest IT projects ever undertaken by the
Government. Simply put, ACE/ITDS is a single-window filing system for international trade.
Currently, in order to import an item into the United States, the importer must fill out separate
and often redundant declaration forms for several different agencies. With ACE/ITDS the trade
will be able to input the data once into the system. From there, each respective agency will be
able to extract the information they need to make a decision on the import: whether or not to
allow it into the country, how much duty ought to be paid, if there is any hazardous materials to
look out for, and so forth. This system will ensure that all imports will be acted upon by the
responsible government agencies, while also eliminating unnecessary delays at the border and
eliminating unnecessary paperwork. The Agricultural Marketing Service is one of the first
agencies to become involved with this project.
For Market News branches, the integration into ACE/ITDS will lead to great improvements in
the completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of our reporting. Data that is currently compiled and
released on a semi-weekly or monthly basis will become available in near-real time. The
impacts of these enhancements cannot be understated. The near-instantaneous release of import
and export information, as opposed to the current 30-45 day release, will give the agriculture
industry more and better information with which to make marketing decisions. Market News will
also have access to more information through ACE/ITDS. We should be able to get imports
separated by such things as variety, size, color, and condition. To use a quick example, instead
of having an import classified as "mango", it would be classified as "Tommy Atkins mango, 10
size, fresh” or "Keitts mango, sliced and frozen in plastic bags". This greater degree of
specificity will allow Market News to better serve its customers in the future.
CHANGES TO AMS REPORTS AND NEW REPORTS
Fruit and Vegetable:
Organic Data
AMS Market News has entered into an interagency agreement with the Risk Management
Agency (RMA) of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation. The agreement calls for Market
News to enhance its database and the new Market News Portal to better accommodate organic
data and to make it readily retrievable by users. The agreement includes a two year pilot project
to enhance data collection for organic fruits and vegetables. While the modifications to the
Market News Information System, or database, and the Market News Portal will take some
months to complete, the enhanced data collection is expected to start this fall.
The current plan for enhanced fruit and vegetable data collection, which is subject to
modification, is to do weekly regional price surveys at the wholesale/distributors level and at the
retail level. This data will add to the daily wholesale market reports issued from the 15 major
wholesale fruit and vegetable markets, which includes organic product when it is available.
New Reports
• Daily Movement Report
• Shipping Point High/Low Highlights Report
New F.O.B. Reports
• Beets - Mexico Crossings through Calexico and San Luis, Arizona
• Celery - Imperial and Coachella Valley, California
• Cucumbers - New Jersey
• Eggplant - Michigan, New Jersey
• Nectarines (preconditioned) - California
• Peaches (preconditioned) - California
• Plums - (preconditioned) - California
• Peppers - New Jersey
• Quince - California
• Squash - New Jersey
• Sweet Potatoes - Mississippi
• Strawberries (Organic) – California
• Tangelos - Peru
• Tomatoes - New Jersey
• Tomatoes, Grape type - New Jersey
Report Changes
Due to budget shortfalls, the following report changes have taken place:
• Composite reports for wholesale fruit and vegetable markets are no longer being issued.
The reports that made up the composite reports are still available, but only in a text
format.
• Reporting of wholesale flowers for Philadelphia, Chicago, Seattle and San Francisco has
been discontinued, while the Boston wholesale cut flower report will be issued only once
a week and is only available in a text format.
• Reporting of F.O.B. shipping point prices for California flowers has been discontinued.
Livestock and Grain:
Retail Pork Report:
A new weekly pork report is available on the LGMN Internet site. This report compiles
information from weekly pork ads of approximately 17,000 retail stores nationwide. It gives a
feature rate which is the percentage of sampled stores advertising pork, a special rate which is
the percentage of sampled stores with a no-price promotion, an activity index which is a measure
of the absolute frequency of the feature activity equal to the total number of stores for each
advertised pork item, and the total number of advertising outlets and their weighted average
price. The report also includes graphs of the current and previous five weeks activity index.
Additionally, the price range and weighted averages for the various items are broken down into
six regions. The report is released Friday by 3:00 PM Central. The web address is:
http://www.ams.usda.gov/lsmnpubs/mpork.htm.
Distillers Dried Grains Report:
A Distillers Dried Grain Report is available for Iowa on a regional basis that includes corn bids
for ethanol in addition to dry, wet, and modified wet distillers dried grain prices. Expansion to
additional states will be considered.
New Livestock Auction Reports:
Stratford WI. Dairy Auction
Belen NM. Livestock Auction
Portales NM. Dairy Sale
Mansura LA. Livestock Auction
Greencastle PA. Livestock Auction
Centennial CO. Goat Auction
Clay County AL. Livestock Auction
Passaic MO. Livestock Auction
Macon MO. Livestock Auction
Maryville Mo. Livestock Auction
Discontinued Reports:
South St. Paul Stockyards reports were discontinued on September 30, 2006.
Poultry:
New Reports:
Retail Chicken Feature Activity Report – Specialty and USDA Certified Organic
In 2005 in conjunction with industry members and trade groups, Poultry Market News developed
a market news report covering supermarket feature activity for the most common consumer cuts
of chicken. In September 2006, this report was expanded to include similar activity for specialty
and USDA Certified Organic chicken products. Specialty products are produced from chickens
raised on an all vegetable diet without antibiotics and are minimally processed. USDA Certified
Organic are products grown and processed according to USDA's national organic standards and
certified by USDA-accredited State and private certification organizations.
Revisions
BROILER/FRYER: Weekly Young Chickens Slaughtered Under Federal Inspection (Thur)
Live weights of young meat chickens continue to increase. In response to this situation and at
the request of the broiler industry, USDA AMS Poultry Market News, working with the National
Chicken Council and industry cooperators, developed the following updates to the reporting of
young chicken slaughter information effective August 2006:
Expanded weight breakdowns to four:
4.25 lbs. and down: This size product is normally marketed bone-in into fast food and food
service sectors and may include Cornish hens.
4.26-6.25 lbs.: This size product is normally marketed into the retail grocery sector in tray pack
or bagged forms.
6.26-7.75 lbs.: This size product is normally marketed either into the retail grocery sector in tray
pack and IQF form or is further processed and marketed into various sectors.
7.76 lbs and up: This size product is normally marketed deboned or as roasters or roasting
chicken.
The report timeframe was moved up one week to reflect the prior week’s data instead of data
from two week’s prior.
The slaughter information provided in the report now reflects 100% of the Federally Inspected
slaughter instead of the 66% previously shown.
Dairy:
The Milk Marketing Order Statistics Group has developed and implemented a web-based, public
database of historical statistical information generated through the administration of the Federal
milk order program. Monthly data, beginning in January 2000, includes the volume of milk
marketed under the program, the Class prices of milk, prices paid to dairy farmers, the utilization
of milk in various dairy products, and other related information. The database provides three
options by which the information in the tables can be accessed; each provides its own level of
convenience and flexibility. The URL for the database is:
www.ams.usda.gov/USDAMIB/Main/Welcome.aspx.
Cotton
New Reports:
Daily Cotton Quality Summary:
In 2005 in response to industry request, Cotton Market News developed a daily report released
each weekday during the active harvest season listing by Classing Office the number of bales,
predominate color and leaf grades, average staple, mike, strength, uniformity, trash, and the
percentage of bark and grass. It includes weekly and seasonal summary information pulled from
the Quality of Cotton Classed reports.
Revisions
Daily Spot Cotton Quotations:
Beginning with the 2006-2007 marketing year the Cotton Market News made changes to the
American Pima Spot Quotations. The changes included combining the San Joaquin Valley and
Desert Southwest markets into one American Pima Market, changing the quotation terms to UD
free, FOB warehouse, and quoting discounts for strength 37.4 and lower.
Tobacco:
All tobacco reports have been eliminated except for the Quarterly Stocks report due to the
elimination of the mandatory grading program by Congress.
AMS Contacts: Agricultural Marketing Service:
E-mail to: [email protected]
ADMINISTRATOR
Lloyd C. Day
202-720-5115
Associate Administrator
Kenneth C. Clayton
202-720-4276
Civil Rights Program
Ruihong Guo
202-720-0583
Public Affairs Staff
Billy Cox
202-720-8998
Legislative Staff
Chris Sarcone
202-720-3203
Cotton Programs
Darryl Earnest
202-720-3193
Poultry Programs
Craig A. Morris
202-720-4476
Dairy Programs
Dana Coale
202-720-4392
Science & Technology Programs
Robert Epstein
202-720-5231
Fruit & Vegetable Programs
Robert C. Keeney
202-720-4722
Tobacco Programs
Bill Coats
202-205-0567
Livestock & Seed Programs
Barry L. Carpenter
202-720-5705
Transportation & Marketing Programs
Barbara Robinson
202-690-1300
Compliance & Analysis Programs
Ellen King
202-720-6768
ERS aims to provide timely, high-quality agricultural market information. Through several new
initiatives, we are enhancing the value-added nature and transparency of our work.
Improved Quality of Communication
Outlook “Landing” Page—Updated weekly, http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/outlook/
provides a critical link to our outlook publications, data, and “e-outlooks” on special topics. Also,
see ERS’s data page (http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/) for the latest data product releases.
E-Outlooks—In 2006, we plan to issue 20 reports examining the forces shaping the future of
commodity markets and trade. This year’s topics focused on emerging markets in China and India,
Canada’s macroeconomic condition, the economic implications of bovine spongiform
encephalopathy (BSE) in the U.S. and Canada, and other topics. Several special e-outlook reports
provided background market information for commodities of interest.
Newsletters—ERS continues to issue over 100 regularly scheduled outlook reports in 14 series.
We are continuing to update processes for our clients to receive market news, and will be posting
newsletters in HTML on the web for better access to text, tables, and charts. Print features and
*.pdf reports will still be available. Look for the 2007 calendar posting in November—which also
includes the posting schedule for exchange rates, macro, trade data, price spreads, and other data
products.
Amber Waves—ERS’s flagship magazine has received several awards for excellence in
government publishing, and a significant portion of its content draws on our outlook program.
Look for upcoming pieces on risk management strategies and crop insurance, Brazil’s agricultural
sector, new food safety standards in China, and other topics.
Enhancing Timeliness and Value-Added in Data Delivery
On-line Database Development—Through an internal data collection initiative and use of web
technology, we are improving access through queriable databases and standardized formats for our
analysts and for the public. Public users can view and download data from queriable databases,
retrieve data for charts, download pre-formatted spreadsheets and tables, and review
documentation for the market data posted on-line.
Agricultural Resource Management Study (ARMS)—ARMS, based on an ERS-NASS survey
of farm households, is being made more user-friendly! We release our farm income forecast in
November, and the ARMS data delivery instrument can provide insights into the distribution of
income and wealth on various categories of farms. See http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/ARMS/
for more information.
Analytical Transparency
“Models on the Web”—As part of the government’s Data Quality Initiative, ERS is moving
toward more models that are downloadable on our website. We’ve posted several Excel models,
which are updated monthly, allowing users to use futures prices to forecast the upcoming counter-
cyclical payments (CCP) rate for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Agricultural trade multipliers for 69
commodities provide estimates of employment and/or output effects of trade in farm and food
products on the U.S. economy. See the documentation at
http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/TradeMultiplier/. Currently, 12 countries/regions and 35
commodities are included in our trade modeling framework. The model, called the Partial
Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulator (PEATsim), is available for public use and comment at
http://trade.aers.psu.edu/.
“Behind-the-Scenes” Calculations—We also provide step-by-step detail on the derivation of
some of our outlook projections. Last year we posted calculations for wheat food use and wheat
exports; see http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Wheat/wheatfooduse.htm and
http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Wheat/wheattrade.htm for details. This year we’ve posted the
derivation of monthly and annual data for the past 1-2 years for imports and exports of live cattle
and hogs, beef and veal, lamb and mutton, pork, broiler meat, turkey meat, and shell eggs. Based
on Commerce trade data, the documentation is at http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/MeatTrade/.
Leveraging Cooperators To Enhance Our Ability To Analyze Markets
Conversion Factor Initiative—ERS is working with the University of Minnesota and others to
update conversion factors (refining our estimates of food use, trade, and other variables). We hope
to develop a “consortium” of government, university, consultant, and industry experts who
contribute to developing the most up-to-date factors possible.
Cooperative Agreements—We have a number of cooperative agreements on the economic
impacts of invasive species affecting agricultural production. See the invasive species page at
http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/InvasiveSpecies/. Another agreement with Livestock Marketing
Information Center gives us additional support for data on the livestock and dairy industries. We
have agreements with Penn State University to support our market analysis of the dairy industry
and with New Mexico State University and the National Academy of Sciences on the sheep
industry. We also have cooperative research agreements with other universities on such topics as
demand for hard red spring and hard red winter wheat, the organic produce market, supply and
demand elasticities, and market differentiation and segmentation in the grains markets.
Stakeholder Meeting—ERS’s Market and Trade Economics Division will be brainstorming with
stakeholders at a workshop on November 16
th
to chart analytical directions over the next few
years. Is there an economic issue that we should be researching? If so, let me know.
Other New Directions
Annual Commodity Data—ERS is continuing its efforts to reach its customers with the most
accurate and timely data. Annual data contained in the yearbooks will be posted in databases and
spreadsheet format. The annual summary will be posted as a separate *.pdf report.
Land-Use Changes—A new report examines evidence on the relationship between agricultural
land-use changes, soil productivity, and indicators of environmental sensitivity. If cropland that
shifts in and out of production is less productive and more environmentally sensitive than other
cropland, policy-induced changes in land use could have production effects that are smaller—and
environmental impacts that are greater—than anticipated. See the report at
http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/ERR25/.
Understanding Farm Exits—The rate at which U.S. farms go out of business, or exit farming, is
about 9 or 10 percent per year, comparable to exit rates for nonfarm small businesses in the United
States. Numbers of U.S. farms remain stable because the rate of entry into farming is nearly as
high as the exit rate. See http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/ERR21/.
Food Surveillance System—ERS is acquiring scanner data that will provide much more detailed
and timely information on food prices, sales, and purchases by household type by specific product
categories (for example, prices for low-carb vs. “regular” items).
Diet, Knowledge, and Health Survey—ERS received $3 million in its appropriations to
investigate consumer knowledge of food healthfulness and how consumers implement that
knowledge in dietary choices. A survey module on the National Health and Nutrition Examination
Survey (an HHS survey) is being developed that addresses, among other topics, the importance of
labeling and how consumers acquire information on the links between food and health.
Questions or Comments? Please address them to
Janet Perry, Deputy Director for Market Outlook, at [email protected]
or 202-694-5152
Accessing Global Commodity Information from USDA ’s
Foreign Agricultural Service
FAS Reorganizes: Since FAS was established in 1953, many events have changed the work of the
agency, but there has been no comprehensive reorganization. Congress has authorized new
programs such as the Market Access Program and the McGovern Dole Food for Education
Program, to name just two. As the landmark Uruguay Round Agreement for Agriculture phased
out traditional tariffs and quotas, countries turned increasingly to new technical barriers to trade in
agriculture. Market maintenance activities now require scientific expertise on a regular basis and
FAS must work closely with many agencies—within and outside USDA—on a wide variety of
complex issues. Even 10 years ago, some of the toughest issues we are dealing with today—BSE,
AI, biotechnology—were not even on the radar screen.
To address these changes and challenges and to comply with the goals of President Bush’s
management agenda, in 2004, FAS began a top-to-bottom review of what the agency does, how
effective we are, and what we could do better. Some of the concerns on the table included:
effectively supporting the agriculture sector during trade agreement negotiations; developing
strategies in response to the emergence of “giants” like China and Brazil; and managing the trade
impact of international food safety scares like AI and BSE. The review process included input
from employees, private sector trade groups, and program participants. This effort pointed out the
need for a new strategic focus for FAS and a realignment of functions and personnel to increase
the effectiveness of the agency.
Market intelligence lies at the root of the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) effort to promote
exports. FAS acquires data from satellite imagery, foreign statistics, and through its global network
of offices in over 130 countries. FAS overseas offices produce nearly 3,000 market intelligence
reports on a wide variety of subjects each year. In Washington, D.C., FAS’ Commodity and
Marketing Program (CMP) has the responsibility to analyze this information along with the World
Agricultural Outlook Board, Economic Research Service and other USDA agencies, to publish
short term world production, supply and demand (PS&D) estimates on a monthly basis. FAS
commodity knowledge supports USDA on issues of market access, food aid, export credits, and
technical assistance and provides a source of unbiased information for the market.
The FAS Public Web Site and New Data Products:
You can tap into the FAS information network of agricultural counselors, attachés, and trade
officers stationed abroad, and analysts, marketing specialists, negotiators, and related specialist in
Washington, D.C. through the Internet at:
http://www.fas.usda.gov. Through this Web site, you
can quickly go to specific commodity Web pages with analysis, data, and timely news items, often
related to market access or competitive issues faced by U.S. exporters. The FAS website also
provides a portal to the web page s of all FAS overseas offices. A Google powered web search has
recently been added to FAS On-Line. For addition information please contact
U.S. Trade Internet System:
USDA has a searchable, web-based U.S. export and import trade system with data for agricultural,
fishery, and forestry products. This dynamic web-based system is designed to service frequent
requests for trade data from farmers; industry associations; federal, congressional and state
officials; university researchers; and journalists. The database is searchable at any level of the
Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States. Since initial implementation, many user-
requested features have been added to the application to provide increased flexibility and enhance
system capability. Clicking on areas within the body of the report accesses some of these new
features. Some features are activated from the toolbar across the bottom of the output. Find the US
Trade Internet system at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/ustrade/. For additional information please
contact [email protected].
Development of a new US Trade System:
System requirements are being compiled to develop a new U.S. Trade System. The goal is to
provide the means for system users to quickly and easily identify U.S. agricultural trade flows and
trends through a simple and flexible web based interface using data visualization and better
analytical tools. It will have all functionality of the current FAS Internet Trade system. Some of
the envisioned enhancements include:
• AD-Hoc Reporting (match current system)
• Data Visualization (Charts, Maps)
• Data Analysis (Drilldown, Color Coding)
• Enhanced Data Downloads
• Enhanced Output formats
• Addition of Census Units of Measures and real time modification
• Improved methods to save selections
• Inclusion of U.S. state trade data
• Inclusion of custom district trade data
• Inclusion of Pre-1989 data
USDA FAS PS&D Online:
FAS released a new enhanced World Agricultural Production Supply and Distribution On-line
(PS&D On-line) application on August 31, 2006. The new application retains all of the ease-of-
use and functionality of the old version, while incorporating powerful and exciting new features.
The new PS&D On-line system enhancements include:
¾ Query
o The ability to create a personal PS&D user account and save queries for future use
o The ability to include commodity, country, and attribute codes
o The ability to seamlessly query across commodities and attributes
o A top countries option
o The ability to view previous month data for the current year
o The ability to include month and year changes
o A “file format” option that places information in every cell (Excel users should use
this function to replace downloadable datasets)
¾ Reports
o New online reports that provide additional detail of the global agricultural situation
o Links to Current World Production, Market and Trade Reports (circulars)
¾ Downloadable Data Sets
o Revamped and consolidated downloadable data files
o Addition of attribute and unit codes to allow easier linking across commodities
o Archive of these monthly sets will be available soon
o NOTE: These files are now too large to open in excel (Excel users should use this
function to replace downloadable datasets)
¾ Other
o A yearly release schedule allows users to pre-plan data availability.
o New Attributes:
Yield for grains, oilseeds and cotton
Food Seed and Industrial Consumption – Grains
Soybean Meal Equivalent (SME) – Protein Meals
Stocks-to-Use – Cotton
o Country regions that match U.S. Trade online definitions
We invite you to explore the new PS&Donline at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.
For additional information please e-mail FAS at [email protected].
USDA’s Crop Explorer:
USDA’s Crop Explorer Web site (
http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer) provides
customers with timely and accurate crop condition information on a global scale unavailable from
any other source. Every 10 days, more than 2,000 maps and 33,000 charts are updated on the Crop
Explorer Web site. A partnership with NASA (the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration) provides satellite imagery and lake and reservoir surface elevation estimates.
Satellite imagery is posted to the Crop Explorer Web site twice a day. Crop Explorer is a primary
source of agricultural market intelligence for decision makers. Farmers, agribusinesses, commodity
traders and researchers, as well as federal, state, and local government agencies, find Crop
Explorer invaluable in making reliable forecasts about production, supply, demand and food
assistance needs. The Crop Explorer site can also be found from PECAD’s Web page where
articles about in-country crop conditions and agricultural production briefs are now searchable by
country and commodity. Visit http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/ for more information or contact
the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at (202) 720-0888.
World Production, Market and Trade Reports:
The World Market and Trade Reports provide the latest analysis and data on a number of
agricultural commodities, outlining the current supply, demand and trade estimates for the United
States and many major foreign countries. FAS releases monthly updates for cotton, grain,
oilseeds, fruits and vegetables, and world agricultural production and biannual updates on meat
and dairy products. Field crop publications are released on the business day following release of
the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Horticultural publications as
well as coffee and sugar estimates are published at twice a year. Find FAS’ current commodity
information at
http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx.
Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) (Attaché Reports):
The GAIN system is a searchable online archive of all field reports submitted by FAS overseas
offices. GAIN covers all major crop and livestock products and provides timely information to
U.S. exporters and to commodity analysts who use field data to aid USDA in determining global
production, supply, and demand estimates. In addition to traditional commodity reporting, GAIN
also includes reports on high value foods, fishery and forestry products, trade policy monitoring,
and sector reports on food processors and the hotel and restaurant industry abroad. In 2005, FAS
added new annual reports on Biotechnology regulations by country, as well as annual reports on
Export Certificate requirements by country. The foreign-based staff of FAS submits about 3,000
reports each year. The public can register to subscribe to daily or weekly summaries of new
releases. Users can receive reports on specific countries and/or commodities on the FAS website
at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/faspush/default.asp.
Development of a new GAIN System:
FAS has begun the process of redesigning the GAIN system. Our overall goals for the project are
to improve the amount and quality of information captured from the field, perform a technology
upgrade, and greatly improve usability. A key area of focus for public users will be improved
searching capabilities. The new GAIN will also feature an improved subscription service that will
allow users to customize the information pushed to them, and an RSS feed, or short descriptions of
web content together with a link to the full version of the report. FAS is very interested in
feedback from users on desired searching or subscription features for the new GAIN. If you have
comments or suggestions on these features, please email them to
by October 31, 2006.
FAS Worldwide Magazine:
FAS Worldwide, which debuted in March 2005, is an online magazine from USDA's Foreign
Agricultural Service. It is designed to cover the full spectrum of the Agency’s responsibilities and
activities. This electronic publication provides comprehensive information about the multiple
goals and activities of FAS in a flexible, user-friendly format. This online publication supersedes
AgExporter, the monthly print magazine published by FAS through December 2004. FAS
Worldwide is located at http://www.fas.usda.gov/.
Export Sales Report:
Weekly export sales reports serve as a timely early warning system on the possible impact of
agricultural obligations on U.S. supplies and prices. The data is the aggregate of the previous
week’s sales and exports of U.S. exporters. The data can be used, for example, to assess the level
of export demand, to determine where markets exist, and to assess the relative position of different
commodities in those markets. This monitoring system provides a constant stream of up-to-date
information on the quantity of U.S. agricultural commodities that are sold abroad.
Although the report has been in existence for awhile, we are continually working to improve the
information flow to the public. As always, the full U.S. Export Sales report is published on the
FAS Web page every Thursday at 8:30 am eastern time. Find the Export Sales Report at:
http://www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html. For additional information please e-mail:
Export Sales Report - New Developments:
FAS is developing an on-line data query system for the U.S. Export Sales report. The data will be
available the day of publication on the Export Sales home page. Weekly data will be available
back to January 1, 1999. A key feature of the query will include a graphics package that will
automatically track the current week exports and sales versus last year and the 5-year average--by
commodity and country. Look for these new enhanced features on the Export Sales Internet Home
Page very soon.
If you have comments on the information above, please contact Patrick Packnett, Assistant Deputy
Administrator for Analysis, CMP, FAS at (202) 720-1590 or [email protected],gov.
NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE
STATISTICS DIVISION (NASS)
What’s New and What’s Changing
NASS Mission Statement: To provide timely, accurate, and useful statistics in service to
U.S. Agriculture
Livestock
A special report, Cattle Death Loss, was issued in May 2006. This report presented U.S. and State
level data on the inventory and value of losses for cattle, and calves from predators and non-
predators.
A special report, Non-Ambulatory Sheep and Goats, was issued in May 2006. This report is the
result of a cooperative effort between NASS and the Animal Plant Health Inspection Service
(APHIS), Veterinary Services, and included non-ambulatory sheep and lamb totals by region,
weight category, and type of operation.
A special report, U.S. Cattle Supplies, was issued in March 2006. This report covered cattle
supplies in the United States. Historical data on the cattle cycle, cattle on feed, and the movement
of cattle were presented in the report.
U.S. level kid crop estimates for angora, milk, and meat and other goats were added to the Sheep
and Goats report released in January 2006.
Goats were added to 2006 Sheep report in July 2006. This was the first publication of July 1
estimates of total goat inventory and kid crop for the United States. The report name was modified
to Sheep and Goats to reflect this change. Milk, angora, meat and all other goats, and U.S. totals
were published.
The monthly Dairy Products report released in October 2005, contained a new data series for
whey protein concentrates and isolates (25.0-49.9 percent, 50.0-89.9 percent, and 90.0 percent or
greater). Historical data from 2003 to present were also included. The series continued in
subsequent Dairy Products releases.
The annual Dairy Products 2005 Summary released in April 2006, contained a new data series
called skim milk powders (SMP). SMP's are essentially nonfat dry milk, which does not conform
to the applicable provisions of 21 CFR part 131 "Milk and Cream" as issued by the Food and Drug
Administration, due to mixing with lactose\permeate to standardize the protein percent to a desired
level for the world market. The series continued in subsequent monthly Dairy Products releases.
In addition, a new state-level table for sour cream production by month, State, and United States
was added to this release.
A special report, U.S. Hog Breeding Structures, was issued in September 2006. This report
provides information on the changes in the composition of the breeding herd by size of operation
and efficiency of the breeding herd.
A new monthly release, Catfish Feed Deliveries, was started in January 2006. This report tracks
the monthly feed deliveries made to catfish farms by feed mills in the United States. It is
summarized by feed delivered for foodsize fish and feed delivered for fingerlings and broodfish. It
is published for the U.S., Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and other States east and
west of the Mississippi River.
A change was made to the monthly, Catfish Processing. Starting in September 2006, a new import
and export table was added to the release to give growers and processors more information about
international trade regarding farm raised catfish.
The “Cold Storage Space Occupied” series was dropped from the monthly Cold Storage Report,
beginning February 21, 2006.
Crops
The annual Mushroom report now includes statistics for Chester County, Pennsylvania. This
addition was requested by the industry.
The Prospective Plantings, Acreage, and Crop Production reports have incorporated changes to
the estimating program for various commodities. Estimates for flue cured tobacco are no longer
made at the “type” level. Statistics will be published at the "class" level only. West Virginia was
dropped from the tobacco program. Wisconsin was added to the dry bean program.
The Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Preliminary Summary report in January 2007 will incorporate the
following program changes: Mississippi has been added to the blueberry program. Montana will
no longer forecast sweet cherry production in June, so the first estimate of production for Montana
will be in the January Noncitrus Fruit and Nut Preliminary Summary report. Missouri has been
added to the pecan program.
The monthly Agricultural Prices report will no longer include potato prices for Pennsylvania and
Ohio. (Statistics for these two States will no longer be published in the Potato Stocks report.)
Also, the disposition and monthly price estimates for "Malheur County" Oregon and "Other"
Oregon were discontinued.
The Citrus and Crop Production reports will no longer include Temple orange estimates as a
separate category in Florida. Temples will be included in the “Early, Midseason, and Navel”
orange estimates.
Beginning with the April 2006 Vegetable report, statistics are no longer published for bell peppers
in Texas or processed tomatoes in Maryland and New Jersey.
The June Acreage report included individual state estimates for the percentage of corn acreage
planted to biotechnology varieties in North Dakota and Texas. In addition, individual state
estimates for Alabama, Missouri, and Tennessee were also included as part of the cotton
biotechnology statistics. Previously, data for these states were combined as part of the Other
States total.
A new weekly report, Peanut Prices, was issued beginning on October 13, 2006. This report
includes the weekly price received by farmers for each type of farmer stock peanut (Runners,
Spanish, Valencia, and Virginia) along with the quantity marketed. Data for the prior four weeks
are also included.
Starting with the September 30, 2006 release of the Peanut Stocks and Processing report, data on
stocks and utilization of Valencia type peanuts were broken out from Virginia type peanuts.
Beginning with the January 12, 2006 release of the Rice Stocks report, stocks data for rough rice
and milled rice stored off the farm were consolidated into a total Off-Farm stocks estimate. This
standardizes the publication of rice stocks with other commodities and reduces the chance of data
being withheld due to disclosing individual operations. Prior to this change, off-farm stocks were
broken down into three categories based on where the stocks were stored (“In Mills and Attached
Warehouses”, “In Warehouses not Attached to Mills,” and “In Ports or In Transit”).
Program changes that were included in the Crop Production 2005 Summary report: Mississippi
was added to the peanut estimation program. Oklahoma was added to the canola estimation
program and was published as part of the combined Other States total.
Environmental, Economics and Demographics
Agricultural Chemical Usage, Field and Vegetable Crops, Chemical Distribution Rate, December
2005 provided rate distribution tables for “Percent of Acres Treated,” “Number of Applications,”
“Rate per Application,” and “Rate per Crop Year” for field and vegetable crops. These tables
include the 10
th
and 90
th
percentile, median, and average of the chemical usage data.
Agricultural Chemical Usage 2005 Field Crops Summary, May 2006 was expanded to include rate
distribution tables for the covered commodities. Inclusion of these tables eliminated the need for a
separate publication and provided the data to the public earlier. In response to Asian Soybean Rust
concerns, NASS included soybean chemical usage data in the publication. Soybean data were
summarized from the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) data set.
Agricultural Chemical Usage 2005 Fruit Crops Summary, July 2006 was expanded to include rate
distribution tables for the covered commodities. Inclusion of these tables eliminated the need for a
separate publication and provided the data to the public earlier.
Farm Production Expenditures 2005 Summary was released August 2006. This is the first product
from the 2005 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), USDA’s primary vehicle for
collecting data about production practices, inputs, farm costs, and financial conditions, and helped
document the effects of rising energy costs, hurricane Katrina, and other adverse conditions.
Census of Agriculture
The 2005 Census of Aquaculture was released in October 2006. The 2005 Census of Aquaculture
expanded the aquaculture data collected from the 2002 Census of Agriculture and provides a
current and comprehensive picture of the aquaculture sector at the State and National level. The
aquaculture census collected detailed information relating to production methods, surface water
acres and sources, production, sales, point of first sale outlets, aquaculture distributed for
restoration, conservation, or recreational purposes, and farm labor.
Preparation for the 2007 Census of Agriculture is well under way. The content of the forms has
been finalized and the printing contract goes out for bid this month. We are currently using data
from our 2005 Content Test to test the numerous census processing systems. The initial mail out is
scheduled for December 28, 2007. The results are expected to be released early February, 2009.
World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)
Office of the Chief Economist (OCE), USDA
Comments about World Agricultural Outlook Board programs may be directed to Gerald A.
Bange, Chairperson, WAOB, Mail Stop 3812, South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250-
3182; (202) 720-6030; [email protected].
What’s New?
New Grains ICEC Chairman
Three weeks prior to the release of the May World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report
we lost our grains analyst. We temporarily assigned an ICEC chair to cover grains, and hired Jerry
Norton to fill the ICEC grain’s analyst position as swiftly as possible. Norton was in place in
September.
Web Sites New Look
The Office of the Chief Economist (www.usda.gov/oce/ ) has a new USDA format as does the
USDA-Cornell University Mann Library site
(www.usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/) where the World Agricultural Supply and Demand
(WASDE) report and Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletins (WWCB) are archived. As a result, data
and information are easier to access.
Commodity Market Information System (CMIS) Project
WAOB worked with GSA/FEDSIM and OCIO to redirect the CMIS project to build a report writer
for the WASDE report. We expect to have the new system in place later next year. With FEDSIM
support, WAOB developed an incrementally-funded work plan that reduces overhead costs by
eliminating the requirement to re-solicit bids annually.
Preparing for Emergency Operations
New Continuity of Operations Plan (COOP) Facility. WAOB economists conducted onsite tests
of hardware, software, and communications capabilities at OCE’s new COOP facility which
opened and is co-located with National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in Fairfax, Virginia.
Software was installed to mirror WASDE backup files to the Fairfax site. We implemented a
monthly procedure to refresh all the COOP laptops with Microsoft, McAfee, and other applications
updates. To ensure access to meteorological information at the Fairfax site, we installed FX-NET
for accessing critical weather information in an emergency. These technologies enable production
of the WASDE report and WWCB at the Fairfax site in the event USDA’s South Building is
shutdown. We collaborated with NASS to provide for a Level 4 COOP site by collocating with
NASS in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Disaster Recover. OCE also prepared a Human Pandemic Plan.
International Exchanges
Hosting Exchanges. WAOB hosted delegations from Argentina, Australia (Nuffield Scholars),
Brazil, China, Kenya, Madagascar, and Ukraine this year.
Foreign Groundwork. Jerry Bange and Keith Menzie were invited by CONAB (Brazil’s National
Supply Company which is part of Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture), to meet with Brazilian
Government officials in Brasilia to discuss USDA supply and demand analytical procedures.
Brazil is the world’s second largest producer and exporter of soybeans behind the United States.
In a 2-day meeting, we described in detail the methodology used by USDA to estimate the size and
disposition of Brazil’s soybean crop. As intended, this interchange established an excellent
working relationship with CONAB President Jacinto Ferreira, other Brazilian government
officials, and laid the groundwork for future exchanges.
Improving Communication. WAOB hosted several international teleconferences which linked
attaches, Foreign Service Nationals, ERS and FAS/Washington staff. Conferences focused on: the
implications of foot and mouth disease (Moscow, Brasilia, and Brussels); resuming beef exports to
Japan (Tokyo, Canberra, Ottawa, and Wellington); and, the impact of Avian Influenza in Europe
(Brussels and Moscow).
Ethanol
USDA/WAOB’s monthly estimates of corn use for ethanol production led the industry throughout
the year. We informed NASS of previously unidentified ethanol data sources and met with the
Energy Information Agency (EIA) to underscore the importance of ethanol production data to
agriculture and to promote data consistency between USDA and EIA. As a result, EIA has
stepped-up efforts to gather ethanol production information.
What’s Changed?
Report Usage Grows
The WASDE report is among USDA’s most widely viewed reports. During FY 06, the WASDE
report was accessed, on average, 20,000 times per week on USDA’s Web site and 9,000 times per
week on USDA’s Cornell site, where the report is archived. Also, the WASDE report has 5,400
subscribers on USDA’s Cornell site.
From Sep. 2005 to Aug. 2006: the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin was hit 395,000 times on
USDA’s Cornell site; the WWCB archive (1971-2006) was hit 456,000 times; and, the Morning
Weather Summary was hit 116,000 times. WAOB’s Climatic Profiles publication was accessed
1,266,972 times.
ICEC Review Forum
WAOB organized its sixth annual ICEC Review Forum that invites industry analysts to speak
about program strengths and weaknesses and helps us improve and set future program priorities
for the following year. Based on Forum review, USDA incorporated stochastic estimates into the
President’s Budget Baseline for the first time.
Weather Monitoring
WAOB’s Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF) prepared numerous early warnings and
assessments of significant weather events that affected agriculture. Our meteorologists described
projected storm tracks, wind speeds, and rainfall, and used GIS to delineate crop areas and project
probable crop losses. WAOB also prepared briefing materials for the Chief Economist in support
of USDA’s drought task force.
WAOB decommissioned the NOAAPORT/ Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System
(AWIPS) system in Kansas City and replaced it with a direct connection to the NWS
NOAAPORT/AWIPS site in Camp Springs, Maryland. The FX-NET system provides access to a
limited set of AWIPs products but uses the public internet instead of expensive dedicated circuits,
resulting in a substantial cost savings. WAOB also installed FX-NET at its Fairfax, Virginia,
COOP site eliminating for a significantly more costly NOAAPORT installation.
USDA’s Annual Outlook Forum
Record Attendance in 2006. Planned and coordinated USDA’s 2006 Agricultural Outlook
Forum, “Prospering in Rural America.” Registration totaled a record 1,772. WAOB posted
Forum speeches on the Web on the day of presentation and provided Forum attendees with a CD
including all Forum presentations. The Forum Web site was hit over 3,000 times during and
immediately following the event.
Student Diversity Program. WAOB has initiated, with CSREES assistance, the “USDA Outlook
Forum Diversity Program.” Students selected for this program will be reimbursed for Forum-
related transportation and per diem expenses using private sector and government funds. The
program targets 10 agriculture, agricultural economics, agricultural communications, agricultural
business, or pre-veterinary junior or senior undergraduate students. Several corporations and
USDA agencies have volunteered sponsorship for the 2007 Forum.
2007 Forum. Next year’s forum will be held March 1-2, 2007. Secretary Johanns will be the
keynote speaker and Scott Kilman of the Wall Street Journal will moderate a distinguished panel
of America’s leading CEOs focusing on the impact of bioenergy on agriculture. Other
distinguished guest speakers are also being invited. Please take one of our postcards with you that
cite the OCE Web site where you can get more information and review a preliminary program.
More information is available at: www.usda.gov/oce/forum.
U.S. Census Bureau
Foreign Trade Division
Each month the Foreign Trade Division of the United States Census Bureau (Census) releases the
FT-900 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report, which is one of the principal
economic indicators for the United States. This report along with other information can be found
on our Web site at: www.census.gov/trade. Information available includes:
FT-900 U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services, current and historical issues
Information on the Automated Export System (AES)
Schedule B commodity classification search
Export and import statistics by country or commodity
U.S. foreign trade export regulations
Current Issues of Interest
Regulations
The regulations mandating the electronic reporting of exports through the Automated Export
System or AESDirect continue through the review process. We still anticipate issuing these
regulations, however we do not have an estimated publication date.
Data Products
During 2006, we added a new port data product to USA Trade Online. Data users may obtain
information by Harmonized System code (2-, 4-, or 6-digit) by country by port. The measures
available include total value, vessel value, air value, and vessel and air shipping weight. We are
currently investigating whether the quality of the overland shipping weight is sufficient for
publication. Anyone interested in a 30-day trial of this product should e-mail Nick Orsini,
Assistant Division Chief for Data Dissemination at
[email protected] or 301-763-2311.
We are also working to add a containerization breakout for vessel shipments to this data product.
We expect to release this enhancement with December statistics, which will be released February
13, 2007.
Revisions
We have recently posted our revisions policy upon our web site (www.census.gov/trade). We
continue to issue commodity-specific corrections in response to investigations initiated by
questions from data users. We post updates at least twice a month. These corrections are available
at www.census.gov/tradestats.
We ask your continued assisitance.in maintaining the accuracy of the trade statistics. If you
become aware of potential problems in the trade statistics please contact Paul Herrick, of our
Commodity Analysis Branch, as soon as possible to report the problem.
Questions about this presentation? Please address them to Diane Oberg, Senior Foreign Trade
Advisor, 301-763-2223 or [email protected].
Other Foreign Trade Division Contacts:
Main Foreign Trade Page: http://www.census.gov/trade
FTD Reference Page: http://www.census.gov/tradereference
FTD Statistics Page: http://www.census.gov/tradestats
Foreign Trade Data Products: (301) 763-2227 or Fax: (301) 457-2647
FTD Regulations Page: http://www.census.gov/traderegs/
FTD AES Page: http://www.census.gov/aes
Correspondence can be written or faxed to:
Foreign Trade Division
U.S. Census Bureau
Washington, D.C. 20233-0001
Fax: (301) 457-1159
Inquiries about our published statistics can be written, E-mailed, or faxed to:
Mr. Paul E. Herrick
U.S. Census Bureau
4700 Silver Hill Road, Rm 3142, FOB 3
Suitland, MD 20746
E-mail: [email protected]
Fax: (301) 457-1158
Manufacturing and Construction Division
Ethanol
At present, the M311 J, Fats and Oils--Oilseed Crushings report, contains production and stocks
data for crude oil produced from corn. Beginning with January 2007 statistics, to be released
around February 25, the MCD will be adding additional product breakouts. The staff is still
working with USDA and others to finalize the breakouts and to discuss ways of presenting the
results.
In order to produce accurate statistics, the MCD expects to add a substantial number of
establishments. They have several possible issues with the additional reporting lines, notably
whether the additional detail will create disclosure issues and whether the reporting companies
will be able to break out the detail requested in time for inclusion in the monthly reports.
Here is the product detail that MCD expects to request beginning with the January 2007
statistics:
Item Code Reference List Unit of Measure
CORN
Production:
0900 Crude oil produced (total) 1000 lbs
Wet Mill
0901 Corn grind in wet mill 1000 bushels
0902 Crude oil produced (wet mill) 1000 lbs
Corn-by products (wet mill)
0906 Corn gluten meal 1000 lbs
0907 Corn gluten feed 1000 lbs
0908 Corn germ meal 1000 lbs
Dry Mill
0911 Corn grind in dry mill 1000 bushels
0912 Crude oil produced (dry mill) 1000 lbs
Corn by-products (dry mill)
0914 distillers wet grain (DWG) 1000 lbs
0915 distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) 1000 lbs
0916 distillers dried grains (DDG) 1000 lbs
0917 distillers dried solubles (DDS) 1000 lbs
0918 cond. distillers solubles (CDS) 1000 lbs
Stocks:
0905 Stocks of crude corn oil (total) 1000 lbs
0903 Stocks of crude corn oil (wet mill) 1000 lbs
0913 Stocks of crude corn oil (dry mill) 1000 lbs
Any questions or comments regarding these new breakouts should be addressed to Joseph Guido,
301-763-5166, [email protected]
.
The Economic Census already contained substantial detail on the Ethyl Alcohol industry, North
American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code 325193. The 2007 Economic Census will
collect the quantity and value of shipments at the same level of detail as was collected in 2002.
The following link has detail for Ethyl Alcohol as published in 2002. .
http://www.census.gov/prod/ec02/ec0231i325193t.pdf
The Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) also provides data on the Ethyl Alcohol industry.
Data are published for value of shipments only. The following link has the latest 2004 ASM data
for Ethyl Alcohol.
http://www.census.gov/prod/2005pubs/am0431vs1.pdf
Biodiesel
In January 2006, MCD broke out the consumption of methyl esters from once-refined soybean oil
in the M311 K report. In January 2007, they will break out the consumption of methyl esters for
each of the oils in the report. This report will be released in late February/early March 2007.
Questions about this report should be addressed to James Day, 301-763B3429,
.
For the 2007 Economic Census, MCD is investigating the possibility of adding the following
product categories:
From current 10-digit product code 325199E111, natural organic chemical derivatives of
fatty substances, a separate 10-digit product code for “biodiesel fuel, pure, used as an
additive for blended petroleum diesel fuel.”
From current 10-digit product code 3241992241, all other petroleum and coal products, a
separate 10-digit product code for “biodiesel fuel made from purchased petroleum diesel
and biodiesel additive.”
Questions about the Economic Census or ASM data should be addressed to Nat Shelton, Chief,
Primary Goods Industries Branch, 301-763-7632, [email protected].
Actual release dates for both of these reports will be posted on the Current Industrial Reports
website: http://www.census.gov/cir/www/index.html.
Cooperation from the industry is essential to the Census Bureau’s ability to provide complete,
accurate and timely statistics. Both of these mandatory reports are produced on a very tight
timeframe. There are generally just 3 weeks between survey mail out and publication of the
statistics. Prompt return of the survey forms will be critical to the success of the expanded
statistics.
Data Users Meeting
Summary of Questions and Comments
Chicago, Illinois
October 16, 2006
Note: The following write-up presents a topical summary of issues discussed during the afternoon
open forum. Material is presented in chronological order. However, all discussions on a specific
topic have been consolidated if it came up more than once.
Quick Stats: A comment was made to NASS regarding data on their on-line database (Quick
Stats). It was mentioned that at one time there was a soybean price gap for some months and that
soybean prices were being reported in dollars per bale. However, since then the errors had been
corrected. Steve Wiyatt of NASS said they were aware of problems and that everything should
now be corrected. Both Steve Wiyatt and John Van Dyke of AMS emphasized that if any errors
are ever identified through their respective on-line databases, to contact them so they can be
corrected.
Energy Production: What kind of detailed data would be provided by the Census Bureau
regarding ethanol? Diane Oberg of the Census Bureau said there are no specifics at this time, but
they are still working with USDA on how the tables will look. Gerald Bange and Jerry Norton of
WAOB mentioned they are working on this as well and that industry needs to let the Census
Bureau know what works best for them.
A comment was made that ethanol information from the EIA report comes out two months late and
they need this information earlier. Gerald Bange responded by saying that government agencies
can’t just go out and collect data, sometimes there needs to be legislation, OMB clearance, or
funding to collect the data needed. However, he finished by saying they will try to push it along
and get the information to the industry.
A question was asked about how compensation is made to handle feed usage estimates given that
ethanol production is known as well as the by-product from ethanol production. Gerald Bange of
WAOB explained these numbers have always been difficult for USDA to estimate. He continued
by saying this is usually a residual calculation and may not always correlate with animal numbers.
Jerry Norton of WAOB stated that they do use some information from FSA regarding dry vs. wet
mill and work back from ethanol production to get DDG’s.
Is NASS ready to measure cellulostic fiber crops for the production of ethanol? Steve Wiyatt of
NASS explained if data users need the data and there is funding for it, NASS would look into
including it in their reports.
Carol House of NASS asked a question about what new data products the panel could provide data
users regarding ethanol. A data user responded there could be a lot but didn’t know exactly what
at the time. However, he did mention that it would be helpful if import data were made available
in a more timely manner. John Van Dyke explained that AMS, along with other government
agencies, is trying to make import data available in a real time fashion but doesn’t know when it
will be available. Gerald Bange of WAOB finished by saying that when something is happening
in the industry, it takes government a little time to react. Export sales report came out in the
1970’s as a result of the grain crisis.
Is USDA doing anything to measure bio-diesel and ethanol production overseas? Patrick Packnett
of FAS explained they are getting some information from their attaches overseas but have not
established an annual report yet. He also explained some attaches reports are available on their
website.
A comment was made by a data user that gallons of bio-fuel per acre would be a useful statistic.
A comment was made that private analysts put their own views of the energy market into their
analysis. From this, a question was asked if USDA will also do this by either bringing in their own
consultants or hiring someone or just use EIA’s data. Gerald Bange of WAOB answered they
really don’t have any other option but to use EIA data as there is no energy analyst on staff at
WAOB. He continued that possibly in May, WAOB will break out the amount of soybeans used
for bio-diesel.
Brazil: From meetings in Brazil, is there one agency there industry should look to for reliable
information? Gerald Bange explained that getting good data from Brazil is difficult when different
government agencies there are putting out different estimates for the same commodity. He
continued by saying CONAB is working hard to be the agency of record for Brazil and is trying to
adopt more of a USDA style of making estimates. Keith Menzie of WAOB stated CONAB
publishes their results within two weeks of data collection and use a panel survey. However,
Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE) takes about six weeks to publish their data
but uses more statistical sophistication than CONAB. Steve Wiyatt of NASS finished by saying
NASS has worked with these two agencies to try and get them together in order to provide better
data.
October Crop Production Report:
A question was directed to NASS asking what percentage of
plots from the Objective Yield Survey were harvested for the October Crop Production report.
Greg Thessen of NASS responded that 76% of the corn plots and 63% of the soybean plots were
harvested.
Someone asked how the corn acreage decreased in October by 800,000 acres. Steve Wiyatt of
NASS explained that administrative data from FSA were used along with survey data to re-
evaluate acres and stated the change was still within the sampling error.
A question was asked regarding what changes NASS saw in ear weights from September to
October. It was mentioned that normally big crops get bigger during the forecast season but that
didn’t happen this year. Steve Wiyatt stated that ear weights were close for August and September
but were down somewhat for October. He continued by saying NASS also gets data from the
farmer reported survey and felt that the yield should be reduced.
Pork Cuts: Will reporting of the AMS blue sheet report of pork cuts get better? John Van Dyke
of AMS responded they are also concerned and based on discussions with the industry, they don’t
see any changes being made.
A comment was made from a data user that maybe USDA should stop publishing a cut out value
for a few days if more accurate and timely information isn’t reported to them. Since it’s not
USDA’s fault they can’t get the information because the data are not being reported to them, it
might force the issue within the pork industry if there were no data being published. John Van
Dyke of AMS agreed with these comments and mentioned it is something they’ve looked into at
AMS as well and it may come down to discontinuing publishing the data.
Trend Yields: Why does WAOB use yields back to 1960 to determine trend yields instead of
using a 10 year average knowing the recent advancements made in GMO seed technology? Gerald
Bange of WAOB explained this decision is left up to the ICEC committee to determine what to
use. They are not constrained to use a 30 year average, they can use 5, 10, 15 year averages if they
choose to. He finished by stating that in May, WAOB doesn’t have anything to go on for row
crops except trend since NASS doesn’t set their first yield forecasts until August.
Mandatory Reporting: What is the status of mandatory price reporting for breakout of barrows
and gilts and for retail prices? John Van Dyke of AMS stated the barrows and gilts reporting will
not happen overnight and the various government agencies were meeting to determine what should
be mandated. Janet Perry of ERS also mentioned that retail price reporting will not be mandated
by ERS until Secretary Johanns says to.
Are manufacturing reports from Census mandatory? Diane Oberg of the Census Bureau answered
that both reports regarding manufacturing are mandatory.
Outlook Conference: A comment was made to WAOB that hard copies of the remarks made by
Chief Economist Collins and Secretary Johanns should be made available immediately after their
presentations at the Agricultural Outlook Conference. Gerald Bange of WAOB said this shouldn’t
be a problem and he would work to make sure this happens.
Confidentiality: How can NASS and WAOB reports be confidential and is there any way the
numbers can be leaked before they are released to the public? Gerald Bange of WAOB started by
saying that they don’t even receive the data from NASS until 3:00 am and is within lockup
conditions. Therefore, they don’t even know NASS estimates until then. Steve Wiyatt of NASS
explained that speculative data are not decrypted until the Board convenes inside lockup
conditions. Estimates are set in lockup so there is no way the data could be leaked before the
report is released. Carol House of NASS stated that a complete security review was conducted
about a year ago and everything was deemed good. There were a few minor tweaks that were
made based on the review, but nothing that was done as a result of possible data leaks. Gerald
Bange concluded by commenting that other government agencies release data to the White House
prior to the report being released, but the USDA does not.
Sampling Errors: A question was asked to NASS if there is a report that states the sampling error
for NASS estimates. Carol House of NASS explained that sampling errors were only one source
of error that may cause estimates to change later in the season, but there was no reason NASS
couldn’t provide sampling errors. She continued by saying that reliability tables are already
available in most reports that show relative error for current estimate to final estimates historically.
Government Dairy Products: A comment was made to NASS that government dairy products
continue to be reported as a separate item in the monthly Cold Storage report. He mentioned that
industry needs to know these data since dairy products have price supports. Dan Kerestes of
NASS explained that it’s no problem to continue reporting government dairy products separately,
but NASS wanted to know for sure considering that these data are sometimes thin.
Stochastic Forecasting: How is WAOB using stochastic forecasting and for what? Gerald Bange
of WAOB responded it was developed by ERS and is not really that sophisticated. It spins off
yields with a range and probabilities for WAOB to use in 5 and 10 year baseline estimates. A data
user recommended WAOB continue to use it and share it with industry if possible. Mr. Bange
commented he didn’t know a reason why it couldn’t be shared with the industry. Janet Perry of
ERS said she would talk with people at ERS to suggest making them available to the industry.
Australian Wheat: A question was asked to WAOB about how they put together the Australian
wheat estimates for October and how did the change occur. Gerald Bange of the WAOB answered
by saying they knew there were drought problems in September but didn’t know the extent until
October. They looked at drought indicators in each region during September. Rainfall was low,
but they had not had the heat. He explained it’s hard to assume normal weather in September but
after the September lockup, the rain did not materialize and it turned hot. They looked at satellite
imagery closely and realized the crop was maturing 2-3 weeks early. Therefore, a change was
made to their forecast for October.
USDA Energy Council: A question was asked regarding a presentation made by USDA
Undersecretary Thomas Dorr. The question was, “What is the USDA Energy Council and where
can the presentation by Undersecretary Dorr be found”. Gerald Bange of WAOB responded by
saying that Dorr is a huge proponent of bio-energy and he formed USDA groups to look at bio-
energy.
Baseline Projections: How will baseline projections be affected by politics, new administration,
and new Farm Bill the next couple years? Gerald Bange of WAOB responded that most people
have a fairly consistent outlook the next 1-2 years. However, the debate gets more heated 3-4
years out. There are no “crystal balls” that WAOB uses, so there is no way of knowing for sure
considering the uncertainty of different issues such as ethanol, exports, feed, etc. The farther out
projections are made, the less reliable and useful they are.
FSA Base Acreage:
A comment was made that FSA is re-doing farmer base acreages using
satellite imagery which is reducing farmer acres 2-3%. A question was then asked to NASS of
how this might affect acreage estimates made by NASS and how does it affect yield if production
is the goal? Mark Harris of NASS explained no changes would be made to determine yield since
they are not affected by changes in acreage. He continued by saying NASS uses surveys to
determine acres and FSA data are used to true them up at the end of the year. Greg Thessen
concluded that NASS doesn’t use FSA base yields for anything, just acreage.
Prospective Plantings Report: A comment was made there is a lot of interest in next Spring’s
Prospective Plantings report considering how much corn needs to be produced in order to meet
demand. Another comment was made to put all available resources into this report to get it right.
Steve Wiyatt of NASS agreed and they will do the best job they can. Gerald Bange commented
that looking at the prices between corn and soybeans, corn should take away acres from soybeans.
He also mentioned preliminary forecasts will be released at the Outlook Forum.
Protein Price Data:
How does the panel feel about the Kansas City and Minnesota protein price
data? How much data are behind the series? John Van Dyke of AMS answered they don’t have
anyone on the Kansas City Board anymore. However, there is still one reporter on the
Minneapolis floor and does a good job, but the value there is declining.
Non-Fat Dry Milk: Regarding non-fat dry milk shipments, a question was asked if there are any
other sources of data available. Shayle Shagam of WAOB answered there is nothing that he
knows of.
Cold Storage:
NASS was asked about beef in cold storage. The data user stated that NASS
started to publish more detail on poultry in the Cold Storage report. He continued that with more
beef in cold storage, was there any thought to publishing more detail regarding beef. Dan Kerestes
of NASS responded that NASS needs industry input on exactly what is needed and then NASS
would see if the cold storage facilities could report this information or not. A comment was then
made by another data user that it would be useful to know the beef imports versus exports. Also, it
would be good to know if the beef is ground or trimmed. Dan Kerestes requested that the data user
provide him with the specific requests that he wanted.
Retail Scan Data: A comment was made by a data user that retail scan data are the single most
important data available for beef. He mentioned he would like to see more of it and made
mandatory if possible.
