Microsoft PowerPoint - BDS_XF_20170609.pptx [Read-Only]

BusinessDynamicsofGloballyEngagedFirms

FESAC

June9,2017

Disclaimer

Anyopinionsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsof

theU.S.CensusBureau.Allresultshavebeenreviewedtoensurethatnoconfidentialinformationisdisclosed.

FarihaKamal

U.S.CensusBureau

J.BradfordJensen

GeorgetownUniversityandU.S.CensusBureau

BusinessDynamicsStatistics

Source:Haltiwanger,Jarmin,Miranda(2013)

BusinessDynamicsStatistics:Background

• BDS(https://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/bds/ )

– Providesannualmeasuresofbusinessdynamics(suchasjobcreationanddestruction,

establishmentbirthsanddeaths,andfirmstartupsandshutdowns)fortheeconomyand

aggregatedbyestablishmentandfirmcharacteristics.

• JointprojectbetweenResearch&Methodology andEconomicPrograms

– Currentlyavailable:1976‐2014

• Selectedresearchoutput

– Decker,Haltiwanger,Miranda(2014;2016);Haltiwanger,Jarmin,Miranda(2013);

Fort,Haltiwanger,Jarmin,Miranda(2013)

BroadMotivatingQuestions

• Outsizedroleofglobally engagedfirmsintheU.S.economy

• Bernard,Jensen,ReddingSchott (2007;2016),Bernard,Jensen,Schott(2009),

Antràs &Yeaple (2014)

• Labormarketconsequencesofglobalization

• Importcompetition:Autor,Dorn,Hanson(2013),Pierce&Schott(2016),

Bernard,Jensen,Schott (2006)

• Offshoring:Harrison&McMillan(2011);Hummels,Jorgensen,Munch, 

Xiang(2014),Hummels,Munch,Xiang(2016),Mion&Zhu(2013),Panadalai‐

Nayar,Boehm,Flaaen(2016),KamalandLovely(2017)

BusinessDynamicsStatisticsofGloballyEngagedFirms

• BDS‐Exporting Firms

– Exportmerchandisetransactions‐firmlinkedmicrodata(LFTTD)

• BDS‐Importing Firms

– Importmerchandisetransactions‐firmlinkedmicrodata(LFTTD)

• BDS‐Multinational Firms

– IdentifymultinationalfirmsusingBEAsurveys(MultinationalCrosswalk)

TheBusinessDynamicsStatisticsofU.S.Goods TradingFirms

• Microdatalinks

• Confidentiallinkedfirm‐tradetransactionsmicrodata(LFTTD)

• Improveuponpreviousresearchoutput(Bernard,Jensen,Schott,2009)

• Dataoutputs

• LFTTD:AccessiblethroughtheU.S.FederalStatisticalResearchData

Centernetwork(currentlyavailable:1992‐2014)

• PlannedpublicuseBDSof U.S.TradingFirms

• Tabulations

• Visualizations

MerchandiseTradeTransaction‐FirmMatch

LFTTD

ImportandNon‐

CanadianExport

Transactions

Business

Name

CanadianExport

Transactions

EIN

LFTTD

Longitudinal

Business

Database

BDSofTrading

Firms

Aftervarious

aggregations

FirmID

MNC‐FirmMatch

Multinational

Crosswalk

BE‐10/BE‐11

Business

EIN,Name,Address

BE‐12/BE‐15

Multinational

Crosswalk

Longitudinal

Business

Database

BDSof

Multinationals

Aftervarious

aggregations

FirmID

ProposedStatistics: Proposed Tables:

Counts(total,entrants,exiters) Economy‐wide

• Firms

• Esta blishments

• Employment

Firmage

Firmsize

Sector

State

Jobcreation

• Births

• Incumbents

Jobdestruction

• Deaths

• Incumbents

ByExporter, Importer,Multinational

SelectedStatisticsforGoods Exporters

Allcalculationsbasedonbetaversion;Revisionsexpected.

ShareofFirmsandEmployment

Average2001‐2011

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

Exporter Non Exporter

Firms Employment

ShareofExportingFirms

ByFirmSize,Average1992‐2011

0.01

0.02

0.04

0.07

0.12

0.18

0.25

0.34

0.43

0.55

0.62

0.71

0.03

2001‐ 2011

PercentofExportingEstablishments

BySIC,Average2001‐2011

0.006

0.034

0.005

0.187

0.036

0.167

0.015

0.008

0.010

0.000

0.020

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

0.120

0.140

0.160

0.180

0.200

GrossJobCreationandDestruction

ByExportingStatusandFirmAge,Average2001‐2011

JobCreationRate

JobDestructionRate

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

b)1c)2d)3e)4f)5g)6to

h)11

to15

i)16to

j)21to

k)26+ l)Pre

1976

Exporter NonExporter

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

b)1c)2d)3e)4f)5g)6to

h)11

to15

i)16

to20

j)21

to25

k)26+ l)Pre

1976

Exporter NonExporter

NetJobCreation

ByExportingStatus,Manufacturing

ImportantChallenges

• Representativeness

– Unmatc hedtransactions

– Improvecover ageoflow‐valuemerchandisetraders

• Identificationofall traders

– Tradeinservices

CompositionofU.S.LaborForce,2012

BusinessServices

24%

PersonalServices

27%

Wholesaletrade

Retailtrade

11%

Transportationandwarehousing

Government

16%

Manufacturing

Construction

Mining

Utilities

Agriculture

Source:2012EconomicCensusand CensusofGovernments

Ser vice Sector:Overview

• Servicesectorhistoricallyrelativelypoorlymeasured

– Historicallyunder‐classified

– Nomeasure ofcapitalstock

– Nomeasure similartoproduction/non‐productionwork ers

Construction

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

12%

Transportation and

warehousing

Federal Government

State and Local Government

12%

Utilities

Mining & Ag.

Manufacturing

10%

Business Services

25%

Personal Services

25%

Source: 2007 Economic Census, Census of Governments and 2006 Occupational Employment Survey

4706‐digitNAICScodes

28,000workers/industry

FY2009$17.8M

$60/establishment

Capitalandskillmeasures

atestablishmen t level

10,000HScategories

$38MatCensus

$10MatDHS

47Servicescategories

$14MatBEA

3256‐digitNAICSCodes

208,000workers/industry

FY2009$39.9M

$9/establishment

Nomeasuresofinputsat

establishmen t level

TradeinServices:Coverag e

• Servicesectortraderelativelypoorlymeasured

– 10,000HScodesvs.47servicetradecategories

– Administrativesystem(transaction)vs.surveycollection(firm)

– Higherex emptionlevels

• Cut‐offforgoodstransactions:$2,500

• Cut‐offfortradeinservicesreporting:Iftotaltransactionsinanyofthe

categoriesexceeded$2millionforreceiptsor$1millionforpayments,the

U.S.personisrequiredtoprovidedetailedinformationbytypeofserviceand

bycountry.

TradeinServices:CollectionSystem

• Multiplecollectionsystemsforservicestradedata

– BEATradeinServices(2006–on‐going)

• Firmlevel,measureofserviceactivitytraded,importsandexports

– EconomicCensus(1992–on‐going)

• Selectindustries,establishmentlevel,industryexporting,noimports

– CompanyOrganizationSurvey(2006)

• Enterpriselevelexportingandimporting

TradeinServices:CollaborativeEfforts

• JointBEA‐Censusprojecttoinvestigatefeasibilityofcombining

variousmeasuresofservicestradetoincorporateinBDS ‐Exporting

FirmsandBDS‐Importing Firms

– BEAtradeinservicessurveys2007

– EconomicCensus2007

– CompanyOrganizationSurvey(2006specialsupplement)

TradeinServices:Sug gestions

• Collectcapitaldataforserviceindustriesatestablishmentlevelin

EconomicCensus

• Collectex empt/non‐exemptbreak‐outsofemploymentatestablishment

levelinEconomicCensus

• Collectimportsandexportsofservicesatestablishmentlevelacrossall

industriesinEconomicCensus

• ExploreexpandedcoordinationbetweenBEAandCensus ontradein

servicescollection

Representativeness

• Unmatchedtransactions

– Probabilisticmatchingmethodsbeingexplored

• Coverageof“Small”Traders

– Lowvaluetransactionsarenotcoveredincustomsrecords

• Potentialcollaborators:Smallpackagecouriercompanies(e.g.FedEX,UPS)

• Variablestobecollected:mailingaddresses(domesticandforeign)

QuestionsforFESAC

• Howtoimproverepresentativeness?

– Unmatc hedtransactions

– Improvecover ageoflow‐valuemerchandisetraders

• Howtoimproveidentificationofall traders?

– Usingexistingtradeinservicesdata

– Futuretradeinservicesdatacollectioneff orts