AMTW_final

Institute of the North • U.S. Arctic Research Commission • International Arctic Science Committee

Arctic Marine

Transport Workshop

28-30 September 2004

The front cover shows the summer minimum extent of Arctic sea ice on 16 September 2002. This date represents the minimum coverage of Arctic sea ice in the historical

or human observed record. The false colors represent sea ice concentrations as determined by satellite passive microwave sensors. Noted on this date are an ice-free

area across the Russian Arctic coastal seas, an historic retreat of the ice edge in the Beaufort Sea, and an ice edge position north of Svalbard.

This map is a general portrayal of the major Arctic marine routes shown from the perspective of Bering Strait looking northward. The official Northern Sea Route

encompasses all routes across the Russian Arctic coastal seas from Kara Gate (at the southern tip of Novaya Zemlya) to Bering Strait. The Northwest Passage is the name

given to the marine routes between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans along the northern coast of North America that span the straits and sounds of the Canadian Arctic

Archipelago. Three historic polar voyages in the Central Arctic Ocean are indicated: the first surface shop voyage to the North Pole by the Soviet nuclear icebreaker

Arktika

in August 1977; the tourist voyage of the Soviet nuclear icebreaker

Sovetsky Soyuz

across the Arctic Ocean in August 1991; and, the historic scientific (Arctic)

transect by the polar icebreakers

Polar Sea

(U.S.) and

Louis S. St-Laurent

(Canada) during July and August 1994. Shown is the ice edge for 16 September 2004 (near the

minimum extent of Arctic sea ice for 2004) as determined by satellite passive microwave sensors. Noted are ice-free coastal seas along the entire Russian Arctic and a

large, ice-free area that extends 300 nautical miles north of the Alaskan coast. The ice edge is also shown to have retreated to a position north of Svalbard.

Arctic Ocean Marine Routes

Arctic Marine

Transport Workshop

Editors

Dr. Lawson Brigham, United States Arctic Research Commission

Ben Ellis, Institute of the North

Funding Organizations

Circumploar Infrastructure Task Force, Secretariat at the Institute of the North

United States Arctic Research Commission

International Arctic Science Committee

Held at Scott Polar Research Institute

Cambridge University

United Kingdom

28-30 September 2004

Printed in Anchorage, Alaska by Northern Printing. Design by TerraGraphica.

28-30 September 2004

T ABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents

Overview of the Arctic Marine Transport Workshop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2

Preliminary Survey of Workshop Participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

Session Issues and Research Agendas

1. Historical Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12

2. Arctic Climate and Sea Ice Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13

3. Development and Shipping Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14

4. Technological Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15

5. International Cooperation and Marine Environmental Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16

Final Issues (Session 6) Participant Roundtable Discussions and Key Summary Issues . . . . .17

Appendices

A. Workshop Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-2

B. Workshop Participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-3

C. Abstracts of Presentations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-4

D. Shipping Data for the Northern Sea Route . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-17

E. Canadian Arctic Marine Traffic (June–November 2004) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-19

F. Transits of the Northwest Passage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-20

G. Icebreakers that have reached the North Pole . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-26

H. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-27

I. Arctic Council’s Marine Strategic Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-28

J. A Vision for the Arctic: Governor Walter J. Hickel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-29

Overview of the

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

mid growing interest and concern over the rapid

climate changes occurring in the Arctic, experts

in Arctic marine transport, international marine

safety, as well as researchers of sea ice and climate

change met at the Scott Polar Research Institute at

Cambridge University to create a research agenda and

identify critical issues related to the future of Arctic

shipping.

Co-sponsored by the Arctic Council’s Circumpolar

Infrastructure Task Force, the U.S. Arctic Research

Commission and the International Arctic Science

Committee, the three-day workshop was comprised of

six half-day sessions, each followed by a panel and

participant discussion. The research agenda and critical

issues in this workshop report were developed during

the discussions and were made available to the partic-

ipants for their review.

The international gathering included 54 experts from

11 countries (United States, Canada, Russia, Sweden,

Iceland, Denmark, Norway, the United Kingdom,

Finland, Germany and Japan) representing marine

research institutions, transportation ministries, nation-

al ice centers, naval architects and shipbuilders, ship

classification experts, international marine transport

economists and social scientists.

The workshop, dedicated to the life-long work in the

Arctic by Scott Polar Research Institute’s Terence

Armstrong, was the first critical step in addressing the

multi-faceted issues of future Arctic marine transport,

according to co-chairs Lawson Brigham, deputy director

of the U.S. Arctic Research Commission and Ben Ellis,

managing director of the Institute of the North. "We are

hopeful this workshop is only a beginning of a series of

meetings and conferences on this strategic Arctic

marine issue," they told workshop participants.

In recent years, the extraordinary retreat of Arctic sea

ice has focused renewed attention of the Arctic Ocean

as a potential waterway for marine operations – both

coastal or regional traffic, and the possibility of trans-

Arctic navigation.

Also leading organizers to convene the world’s

experts on Arctic marine transport are several initiatives

underway by the eight-member nations of the Arctic

Council. The Council’s Arctic Climate Impact Assessment,

drawing on the expertise of nearly 300 scientists, will

place an international spotlight on the increasing

possibilities for marine access throughout the Arctic

Ocean. Other Council initiatives underway with Arctic

marine components include an Arctic Marine Strategic

Plan - which calls for an Arctic Shipping Assessment

and an Arctic Oil and Gas Assessment - which will

include elements of Arctic marine transport and port

operations.

"The Arctic is now experiencing and is likely to experience some of the most rapid and severe climate change on

Earth. Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to contribute to major physical, ecological, social and

economic changes, many of which have already begun."

- Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, November 2004

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

Captain Vladimir Mikhailichenko, executive director for the Moscow-based

Noncommercial Partnership of the Coordination of the Northern Sea Route

Usages, shares information on Northern Sea Rout traffic.

Institute of the North staff

OVERVIEW OF ARCTIC MARINE TRANSPORT WORKSHOP

Northern Sea Route

While the workshop considered the entire Arctic

Ocean, a significant portion of the conclave focused on

Russia’s Northern Sea Route.

"In general, Arctic shipping began to develop in

Russia at the beginning of the 19th century," Nikolay

Babich, head of marine operations at Murmansk

Shipping Company, told the gathering. "Beginning in

1920, there was commercial transit in the northern

route, at only 500 horsepower."

First under Soviet rule and now the Russian

Federation, strong emphasis continues to be placed on

exploring and developing shipping through the Arctic

Ocean. Therefore, it is not surprising that Russia had

one of the largest delegations (along with the U.S. and

Canada) at the workshop.

"Because of the Northern Sea Route, the Arctic is the

leading economic region of Russia," noted Professor

Alexander Granberg, head of the Council for Location of

Productive Forces and Economic Cooperation and eco-

nomic confidant to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

"The Arctic will develop more quickly than all of the rest

of Russia."

Another indication of Russia’s interest in expanding

the activities in the Arctic Ocean is the creation of a

new federal law dealing with the Northern Sea Route,

according to Vladimir Mikhailichenko, former head of

the Northern Sea Route Administration and currently

the executive director of the Noncommercial

Partnership of the Coordination of the Northern Sea

Route Usages. The Partnership was created to improve

the management structure along with increasing the

effectiveness of the Northern Sea Route. "One concern

(we) have is limiting marine risk," he noted.

Scientific information was presented on sea ice

trends in the Russian Arctic by Sergey Pryamikov, head

of the International Science Cooperation Department at

the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, including

ice data on the Greenland Sea, Barents Sea, Kara Sea,

Laptev Sea, East-Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea and Arctic

overall.

Victor Medvedev, general director of the State

Unitary Hydrographic Department, explained how the

Russian government provides navigational and hydro-

graphic support to shipping through the Northern Sea

Route and is trying to cope with the loss of 300

navigational aids and more than 300 lighthouses. There

is a need for key navigational charts for transit, he

noted, as well as better communications between ship

and shore concerning safe sailing conditions.

Using the Northern Sea Route as an export route to

move oil and gas out of the Russian Arctic is a possi-

bility but several issues must be addressed to attract

potential investors, noted Kimmo Juurmaa, manager,

Arctic Technology at Aker Finnyards, Finland’s leading

Arctic ship building company.

"To minimize these concerns," he said, "clarification

is needed in technology, legal and administrative

issues, and in environmental protection."

Hopefully, he noted, the European Community’s

Arctic Operational Platform project (ARCOP) will be

able to address these issues. The three-year project

focus is on oil and gas marine transit between Varandy,

Russia and Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

28-30 September 2004

Russian nuclear ice breaker

Yamal

of Murmansk Shipping Company near the North Pole on 23 August 1994.

Lawson Brigham

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

OVERVIEW OF ARCTIC MARINE TRANSPORT WORKSHOP

"The aims," said Juurmaa, ARCOP project coodinator,

"is to understand the marine transportation problems

of the Russian Arctic, as they apply to oil and gas

and then create a permanent discussion forum between

the European Union and Russia, as well as between

industry and politicians so we can provide some

common recommendations."

Arctic Marine Strategic Plan

Soffia Gudmondsottir, executive secretary of the

Arctic Council’s Protection of the Arctic Marine

Environment working group, provided an overview of the

council’s Arctic Marine Strategic Plan.

"One of the aims of this plan," she said, "is to build

on the internationally recognized need to manage

human activities within the context of entire ecosystems,

applying them to achieve the sustainable development of

the Arctic marine enviroment."

Further discussion on the Northern Sea Route

should also be based in the groundwork developed in

the six-year International Northern Sea Route Program,

experts noted.

"The purpose of the INSROP was to build up a

scientifically based foundation of specialized and inte-

grated knowledge encompassing all relevant aspects

related to navigating the NSR, as to enable public

authorities and private interests to make rational

decisions based on scientific insights," explained Willy

Østreng, scientific director and chairman of the Centre

for Advanced Study/Ocean Future at the Norway

Research Foundation. Østreng headed the secretariat

and the joint research committee of INSROP from

1993-1999.

"Integrative concepts were developed, such as

aggregated hot spots, issues-specific hot spots, cool

spots, social-biodiversity, multi-value navigation, etc,"

Østreng noted in his abstract. "These concepts seem

suitable to meet the ambition of the Arctic Marine

Strategic Plan to base itself on an ecosystem-based

management approach."

In developing the Northern Sea Route, there is a

need to use more traditional knowledge of Native people

of the Arctic, as well as the knowledge of non-Natives

who are long-time residents of the Arctic region,

emphasized Vladimir Etylin of the Russian Association

of Indigenous People of the North.

Despite much of the discussion on the Northern Sea

Route, workshop co-chair Brigham urged the body of

experts to think about marine transport throughout the

entire Arctic Ocean.

"During 1977 to 2004," he noted, "52 successful

voyages have been made to the North Pole by the

icebreakers of Russia (42), Sweden (4), Germany (2),

United States (2), Canada (1), and Norway (1); remark-

ably eight surface ships reached the North Pole during

the summer of 2004. Thirteen of the voyages were in

support of scientific research and the remaining 39

were devoted to tourist voyages to the North Pole and

across the Arctic Ocean."

Brigham pointed out that marine access in summer

throughout the Arctic Ocean has been achieved by

highly capable icebreakers, "however, little is known

about the challenges of voyaging in other seasons

except for the Sibir’s expedition in May and June

1987."

Dick Voelker, chief of the division of advanced

technology at the U.S. Department of Transportation’s

Maritime Administration, provided workshop partici-

pants an overview of the agency’s Arctic Marine

Transportation Program, which spanned 1979 to 1986.

Fifteen voyages operating in ice-covered waters at both

poles collected data to define ice conditions along the

routes, measure ice loads on the ship and document

ship performance during the transits.

The program found "year-round operation in the

Bering Sea is not a problem, whereas in the Chukchi

Sea ships must be designed for multi-year ice," Voelker

told the gathering. "In the Beaufort Sea, there could be

limited operations due to heavy multi-year ice, but

if polar class ships were to operate, it would need a

refuelling station."

Brigham noted, however, "the observed and projected

retreat of multi-year ice from the Arctic coastal regions

may very well change this situation."

28-30 September 2004

OVERVIEW OF ARCTIC MARINE TRANSPORT WORKSHOP

Canadian Arctic

While not as rapidly as in the Russian Arctic,

Canadian experts are witnessing a change as well.

"The amount of sea ice in the Canadian Arctic has

been declining in recent decades in concert with the

reductions observed in the Northern Hemisphere in

general," said John Falkingham, chief of forecast oper-

ations at the Canadian Ice Service.

"There is mounting evidence that this reduction will

continue, although there is great uncertainty over the

rate at which ice will continue to diminish," he told the

workshop. "Considering the predictions of global

climate models, as well as, the observed rate of ice

reduction, our estimate is that the Canadian Arctic will

experience nearly ice free summer seasons starting as

early as 2050, but probably not before 2100."

Falkingham noted that multi-year ice, particularly in

low concentrations, will present the major hazard to

shipping.

"Since the oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic Ocean

is that which is driven against the western flank of the

Canadian Archipelago," he said, "this will likely be the

last multi-year ice to remain."

Marine operations in the Canadian Arctic will be

regional in focus, said Bob Gorman, manager of envi-

ronmental services, Enfotec, a Canadian-based marine

service company.

"It should be noted," Gorman told the gathering, "that

the marine industry is focused on the Arctic as a

destination and not a short-cut between the Atlantic

and the Pacific either now or within the next 10 to 20

years."

Gorman said oil and gas activity is restricted to the

on-shore Mackenzie Delta at the moment with plans by

the Aboriginal Pipeline Group to build a gas pipeline to

the delta during the next 10 years. "Once the pipeline

is in place offshore oil and gas activity in the Canadian

Beaufort Sea will likely pick-up once again," he projected.

"The marine industry, like most industries, is very

myopic when it comes to long-term planning," Gorman

noted. "We are able to take a vessel from concept

design to sailing in three years. The concept that

Arctic ice conditions may be more favorable for marine

operations in 20 or 30 years has no commercial

significance today."

Canada’s Victor Santos-Pedro, director for marine

safety for Transport Canada, emphasized the need for

comprehensive safety and environmental protection

measures based on the precautionary approach and

best practices, harmonized international guidelines that

apply to ships operating in Arctic ice-covered waters

and an integrated approach that supplements basic

requirements for the ship design, construction, crew

qualifications, equipment and operations of the seven

new Polar Classes of the International Maritime

Organization’s (IMO) ‘Arctic Shipping Guidelines.’

"The harmonization of standards is the fundamental

pillar," he said. "An integrated approach based on best

practices and precaution can produce comprehensive

Canadian ice breaking carrier M/V

Arctic

(owned by Fednav Limited) in the Northwest Passage.

Canadian Coast Guard

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

OVERVIEW OF ARCTIC MARINE TRANSPORT WORKSHOP

safety and environmental protection measures that also

address economy of effort and cost, and efficiency."

Richard Hayward, a structural engineer with

Germanischer Lloyd based in Hamburg, German, pro-

vided the workshop with an overview of the new

International Association of Classification Societies’

Unified requirements for Polar Ships, as well as what

he envisaged concerning future developments.

"The most important issues," he said, "are the defini-

tions of loads based on additional ship-ice interaction

scenarios especially that of a ship caught under pres-

sure; enhanced integration of limit state design con-

cepts and more explicit definitions of risk levels. The

question of whether ship propulsion power is a matter

of safety and/or performance needs also to be

addressed," he noted in his abstract.

Keld Hansen, head of the ice charting group at the

Greenland Ice Service/Danish Meteorological Institute

told the gathering that currently there is less ice than

normal around Greenland with a retreat of multi-year

ice in the northeast section, while the western waters

are experiencing shorter winter ice season and the

south is seeing larger year-to-year variations with slightly

lighter than normal ice.

"It is very hard to predict," he said, "because of the

amount of variations."

On an anecdotal note, Hansen pointed out that in

February 2004 a Danish ice strengthened cargo vessel

was able to sail to the harbors in Disko Bay, which is

normally impossible without icebreaker assistance.

Icelandic Interest

While Iceland is not in ice-covered waters, Thor

Jakobsson, project manager meteorology and sea ice at

the Icelandic Meteorological Office pointed out to the

group his country’s interest is in creating a staging port

to link cargo being shipped on non ice-strengthened

ships to ice-strengthened ships.

"Decreasing ice cover in the Arctic Ocean during the

last decades should support the idea of Iceland becoming

an important entrepôt for the Northern Sea Route,"

he noted.

Ragnar Baldursson, counselor in Iceland’s

Department of Natural Resources and Environment

Affairs, pointed out that the Suez and Panama canals

"have insufficient capacity for future needs. Trade vol-

ume between the North Atlantic and East Asia - east of

Hong Kong - amounts to around six million TEU

(20-foot equivalent container unit) annually.

"World trade has increased at the rate of 6% annually

since 1950, doubling every 12 years," he told the

gathering. "If this trend continues the trade volume

between the North Atlantic and the Pacific could

amount to almost 50 million TEU by 2050."

Looking at a different aspect of Arctic marine shipping,

Rob Huebert, associate professor, University of Calgary,

warned the group of social aspects of an ice-reduced

Arctic.

"The first and perhaps most complicated issues

revolves around the issues of sovereignty," he said.

"Canada and Russia have both claimed the Arctic water-

ways passing through their Arctic region as internal

waters. While both states are committed to promoting

international shipping through these waters, they do not

accept the Northwest Passage or the Northern Sea

Route as international straits. The United States and

the European Union on the other hand have taken the

position that these are international waters."

Numerous problems must be addressed, he said.

"The first is over control. If these waters are internal,

then the coastal state retains control over shipping in

these waters. On the other hand, if they are not, then

the rules and standards governing international shipping

are to be determined by the competent international

organizations.

"The second main problem is the political sensitivity

that surrounds theses disputes. A challenge to the position

of any of these states carries ramifications that go

beyond the Arctic. This greatly increases the challenges

in resolving the differences that will arise as shipping

increases," he noted.

Security issues are another set of concerns facing an

expanded international Arctic shipping regime.

"Any increase in shipping in the region will require an

increase in the monitoring and enforcement of domestic

and international laws governing smuggling, environ-

mental standards and ship safety," Huebert said. "Given

the isolated nature of the Arctic waters such require-

ments are challenging. Further complicating these issues

is the new need to protect against international terrorism.

An increase in shipping will mean that terrorists could

use this traffic as a means of entry to either North

America or Russia."

"In 2002, September (sea) ice extent was 15 percent below average conditions. This represents an area roughly

twice the size of Texas. From comparisons with records prior to the satellite era, this was probably the least

amount of sea ice that had covered the Arctic over the past 50 years."

- National Snow and Ice Data Center, October 4, 2004

28-30 September 2004

OVERVIEW OF ARCTIC MARINE TRANSPORT WORKSHOP

Other significant issues

Another issue to consider is how Arctic marine shipping

may fit into a future of changing geographical bound-

aries, as well as a changing climate, with resulting sea

ice retreat.

"The juridical map of the Arctic Ocean will likely

change substantially over the next decade or so," pointed

out Ron Macnab, retired Canadian marine geophysicist,

"as the five surrounding coastal states (Canada,

Denmark, Norway, Russia, and the United States) seek

to extend significant sovereign rights beyond their usual

200 nautical mile limits.

"Under the provisions of Article 76 of the United

Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS),

these extensions of sovereignty will be exercised in

several ways: jurisdiction over the living and non-living

resources of the seabed and subsoil; control over the

emplacement and use of submarine cables and

pipelines, artificial islands, installations, and struc-

tures; regulation of drilling; control and prevention of

marine pollution; and regulation of marine scientific

research," he told the gathering.

The gathering also considered existing and potential

international cooperation, which can support develop-

ment and expansion of the Arctic marine transport in

local and global commerce.

"How feasible is the Northern Sea Route?" was the

question posed by Mead Treadwell, Senior Fellow at the

Institute of the North and commissioner on the U.S.

Arctic Research Commission. Treadwell explored two

scenarios for traffic growth: incremental investment

approach and the large scale, major investment

approach.

Under the former, traffic would grow slowly from its

current base relying primarily on imports and exports

from the region with little major impact on world

commerce, Treadwell suggested. Under the major

investment approach, those promoting the use of the

Northern Sea Route would pursue a major share of the

world shipping market.

"To compete against the Suez and Panama Canal

routes, as well as the Trans-Siberian and North

American rail land bridges," Treadwell contended

"distance saving via the NSR must deliver reliable

savings in time."

He suggested one estimate of three million tons per

year could reduce unit costs to the point the route

would be competitive against other shipping routes.

"Such a scenario would entail large-scale invest-

ments in escort vessels, aids to navigation, ports with

an eye to minimize costs of exchanging cargo with

regular vessels and larger cargo goals," Treadwell told

the conference. The group acknowledged that significant

economic research is required to underpin the future

use of Arctic routes.

Map showing the coastal Arctic states, their joint Exclusive Economic Zones

(EEZs), and the natural prolongations of their land territories.

A hypothetical map of the Arctic Ocean showing the combined continental shelves

of the five Arctic coastal states after resolution of the extensions of their EEZs

under Article 76 of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea. Only two small ‘donut

holes’ remain that would be considered international waters. This plausible future

has key implications for Arctic shipping. (EEZs), and the natural prolongations of

their land territories.

“From Alaska to the snowy peaks of the Andes, the

world is heating up right now, and fast. Globally, the

temperature is up 1 degree F (.5 degree C) over the

past century, but some of the coldest, most remote

spots have warmed much more. The results aren’t

pretty. Ice is melting, rivers are running dry and

coasts are eroding, threatening communities."

- National Geographic Magazine, September 2004

Ron MacnabRon Macnab

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

SESSION ISSUES & RESEARCH AGENDAS

Japan’s Norio Yamamoto, executive vice president of

the Global Infrastructure Fund Research Foundation,

noted his organization believes the development in

Russia of oil and gas fields may make the Northern Sea

Route feasible. But he added, "we will have to study

more the international framework, new business mod-

els, technological challenges, incentives to ship owners

and the potential of the market for further Arctic marine

transportation development."

Held at the historic Scott Polar Research Institute at

Cambridge University, the three-day workshop produced

a plethora of information. While each area of discussion

produced suggested topics for scientific research and

questions on policy issues incorporated in this report,

six crosscutting conclusions seemed to emerge as the

editors synthesized this report.

Summary Conclusions

RESEARCH AGENDA

The workshop participants produced a list of significant

issues and an inter-disciplinary research agenda for

Arctic marine transport. The agenda specifically calls

for a wide range of important economic analyses includ-

ing trade cost-benefit analyses for regional (destination)

as well as trans-Arctic shipping. Risk assessments and

environmental impact assessments are critical compo-

nents of any future research agenda. Also considered as

key research topics are studies related to UN Law of the

Sea Treaty impacts on Arctic navigation, the impacts on

indigenous Arctic communities, core issues of conflict

(boundaries, governance, international security, etc.),

and Arctic climate change impacts on future marine

access. Comprehensive studies related to marine safety

and Arctic marine environmental protections are essen-

tial and the workshop results confirm these topics as

core research requirements.

SEA ICE

Presentations at the workshop confirmed that the Arctic

sea ice cover is undergoing an unprecedented transfor-

mation - sea ice thinning, a reduction in extent, and a

reduction in the area of multi-year ice in the Central

Arctic Ocean. These changes are documented in the

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, which also provides

sea ice projections for the 21st century. These simula-

tions show increasing ice-free areas in the Arctic

coastal seas and suggest plausible increases in marine

access throughout the Arctic Ocean. However, the par-

ticipants also noted the observed records indicate the

extreme, inter-annual variability of sea ice in select

Arctic regions such as the Canadian Archipelago. The

magnitude of variability creates difficult challenges for

Arctic marine transport planning and adequate risk

assessment. Representatives of six national ice centers

were present (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland,

Russia and USA) and received key feedback regarding

the future needs of national authorities as well as

industry for enhanced sea ice information.

COMMUNICATIONS/INFORMATION

Workshop participants underscored the need for better

communications and information in all sectors of Arctic

marine transport. There is a great need to update Arctic

marine charts and aids to navigation, as well as enhancing

airborne ice information with satellite coverage.

Research is needed to look at the unique needs of

satellite communications in the Arctic followed by an

action plan. A comprehensive study is needed of potential

communications technologies for ships sailing in the

Arctic. Once information is gathered, rapid transmission

of data and environmental information needs to be

communicated to Arctic ships.

RELIABILITY/SECURITY

Workshop participants underlined two key factors needed

to expand and develop the use of the Arctic Ocean as a

shipping corridor: route reliability and security. Whether

it is the transportation of oil and gas cargo to regions

south of 60 degrees or tourists bound for the North

Pole, shipping schedules must be reliable. While year-

round schedules are preferred, shippers will only use

seasonal sailings if they can be assured their

product will arrive on time. An increase in Arctic ship-

ping will also require an increase in the monitoring and

enforcement of national and international laws govern-

ing ship security. If the projection of continued thinning

sea ice is realized in the central Arctic Ocean, an

increase in the number and variety of vessels deployed

in the region will increase, compounding the issue of

security.

ECONOMICS

Workshop participants were divided over the economic

drivers that could fuel expanded use of Arctic marine

transport. If expansion is on an incremental level,

regional traffic is expected to grow slowly with little to

no impact on global commerce. Regional oil and gas

development fits this scenario. A decision by world

shippers that the Arctic Ocean provides an alternate to

the Suez and Panama canals, would require large scale

global investments of escort vessels, aids to navigation

and staging ports to transfer cargo between ice-

strengthened and non ice strengthened ships. It was

noted that the Canadian commercial marine transport

industry is not focused on the Arctic as an alternative

to the Panama Canal either now or within the next 10

to 20 years.

28-30 September 2004

SESSION ISSUES & RESEARCH AGENDAS

TIMING OF ARCTIC MARINE TRANSPORT

DEVELOPMENT

Discussion during the Cambridge Workshop and a post-

workshop survey indicate that a majority of the experts

believe the initial Arctic region to have an expanded

Arctic marine system will be western Siberia (it is

recognized there has been year-round transport to

Dudinka on the Northern Sea Route since the late

1970s). The westward marine transport of oil and gas

from the Kara and the Barents Seas is viewed as a

plausible future, with a potential to be fully functional

by 2015. The current retreat of Arctic sea ice presents

a succession of plausible futures for the Northern Sea

Route, Northwest Passage, and Central Arctic Ocean. It

is probable that during the next several decades the

coastal seas for the Russian Arctic will experience

longer ice-free seasons; greater access and longer

navigation seasons may also be experienced in Hudson

Bay (to Churchill) and to the Red Dog Mine off Alaska’s

northwest coast. A wildcard will be the diminishing

amount of multi-year ice in the Central Arctic Ocean;

one ACIA climate model projects an ice-free Arctic

Ocean in summer by mid-century, an extraordinary

future with implications for ice navigation and Arctic

ship construction standards. The potential development

and role of trans-shipment ports in the European Arctic,

Iceland, and Alaska is another option in need of

comprehensive analyses and scenario-building.

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

Preliminary Survey

of Workshop Participants

rior to convening the Arctic Marine Transport

Workshop in Cambridge, England, participants

were asked to provide the organizers with key

issues they believed significant to the future of Arctic

Marine Transport. Half of the group responded to the

survey and a list of 47 key issues were assembled and

divided into five broad themes: Emerging Routes

(Timetable and Factors); Infrastructure Needs;

International Relations; Environmental Concerns; and

Arctic Shipping Rules. No attribution for the individual

issues was identified and no order of importance was

determined. The resulting compilation represents a

valuable pre-workshop understanding of the major

issues facing Arctic Marine Transport from a small

‘group of experts.’ Most of these issues were discussed

during the workshop and many reappear in the result-

ing issues and research agendas that were developed

during sessions 1 through 5.

• Regional (annual seasonal) Arctic Marine Transport or trans-Arctic shipping ~ Which will dominate?

• Which will be commercially viable first: Northwest Passage or Northern Sea Route?

• Role of oil & gas industry in Arctic Marine Transport (timing and competition from pipelines)

•Impediments to Arctic Marine Transport: technology, economics and international politics?

• Levels of risk for potential operators

• Need for alternative & secure routes between Europe/North America and East Asia

• Independent icebreaking carriers vs. icebreaker assisted convoys

• Relationship of ‘land bridges’ to the Arctic routes

• Demonstration voyages – what was learned regarding economic competitiveness

•Timing for coastal shipping lanes when ice free

•Tight shipping schedules for passenger & cargo ships: Arctic system development to minimize delays and

ensure safety

Theme: A Emerging Routes ~ Timetable and Factors

•Trans-shipment/staging ports for Alaska, Iceland, and/or Norway?

• Better ice navigation training: international (IMO) vs. national certification

• Incentives for ship owners/charters to make better use of ice information

• Compilation of database of Arctic environmental conditions

• Continuity/delivery of high resolution satellite data for operations

• Increasing importance (+ costs) for ice centers

• International databank of Arctic shipping accidents (for risk/insurance)

•Aviation services (ice reconnaissance/search and rescue/emergency) – financing, role

• Maintenance of knowledge base of experts who understand Arctic & Antarctic issues and can relate them

to maritime world

• Emergency preparedness in the Arctic Ocean

• State of the art of ice navigation – more research required for improvement in tactics of ice navigation

Theme: B Infrastructure Needs

PRELIMINARY SURVEY OF WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS

28-30 September 2004

PRELIMINARY SURVEY OF WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS

• Need for international regime governing security of Arctic shipping (monitoring/enforcement of laws for

smuggling, environmental standards, ship safety)

• Increased conflict ahead – competing Arctic marine uses with greater access

• Resolution of existing Arctic disputes – international mechanisms required

• International polar marine safety campaign – owner awareness

• International agreement on legal status of the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route

• Determination of the legality of ‘sea ice’

• Which non-Arctic nations with maritime fleets are interested in Arctic Marine Transport: Japan, Germany,

China, Korea, others?

• Mobilize Arctic parlimentarians for continuous, long-term involvement in Arctic affairs

• Scope & enforcement of national jurisdiction over international shipping in the Arctic

Theme: C International Relations

• How much old ice (multiyear ice) remains as the retreat continues

• Is the sea ice retreat real, imagined, or shorter-term phenomena?

• The inter-annual variability of ice coverage in some regions like the Northwest Passage is high (What level is

acceptable to industry?)

• Responding to and combating oil spills

• Impact on marine life, particularly marine mammals (sound routes)

• What are the impacts to indigenous and coastal Arctic communities?

• Circumpolar Arctic sea ice database for the past century required

• How can successful Arctic navigation be correlated with known climatic /sea ice fluctuations?

Theme: D Environment

• Ship hull and machinery construction rules – further harmonization?

• Requirements for ice navigator and crew Arctic training

• Adoption of current International Association of Classification Societies polar ship rules for hull & machinery

• Ice navigation systems – future regulation

• Mandatory International Maritime Organization (IMO) guidelines

• What type of sailing allowed in different national waters-limitations, oversight and icebreaker assistance?

• Future ship standards to evolve – future of no water & fuel discharge (polar ship becomes a ‘sealed container’)

• Requirements for special rules for ‘special cargos’ (nuclear reprocessed fuels)

Theme: E Arctic Shipping Rules

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

ne very important task of the Cambridge work-

shop was to generate a research agenda for

Arctic Marine Transport and identify significant

issues that relate to change in marine access in the

Arctic Ocean. Five topical sessions (as chosen by the

international organizing committee) were held:

1) Historical Considerations;

2) Arctic Climate and Sea Ice Considerations;

3) Development and Shipping Economics;

4) Technological Considerations; and,

5) International Cooperation and Marine Environmental

Safety.

Three activities took place within each topical session:

four to six presentations were made; the session chair

provided a commentary following the presentations;

and a panel of experts provided insight on the topic.

At the completion of panel discussions, the floor was

opened to all participants to provide further input on

the topic. A simultaneous recording of major points

(edited as ‘bullets’) was conducted during the panel

and open floor discussions.

The tables of issues and research agendas that fol-

low are derived directly from the five session discus-

sions. Points were edited for clarity and brevity and

each discussion point was identified as an ‘issue’ or

‘research agenda’ item. The workshop results represent

a valuable record for use by the Arctic Council (and its

working groups), the International Arctic Science

Committee, U.S. Arctic Research Commission, and

other research bodies, in planning future policy and

research strategies.

28 September 2004

Issues

• Requirement for comprehensive regional climate databases to facilitate Arctic Marine Transport

• Sea ice information must be ‘uniform,’ coordinated, and fully shared

• Results of Arctic Marine Transport demonstration projects conducted during the past 50 years must be open

to the Arctic community

• Rich history and deep knowledge of the Northern Sea Route must be fully shared to build confidence

• Impacts of icebreaking operations on the Arctic environment and communities

• Economic and operational influences of Russia’s Arctic oil and gas development on the Northern Sea Route

• Communication improvements for rapid transmission of data and environmental information to Arctic ships

• Detailed listing and protection of Arctic historical sites for tourism development

Research Agenda

• Relationship of Arctic indigenous peoples to Arctic Marine Transport

• Evaluation and adaptation of future airborne and satellite imagery for enhanced ice navigation

• Comprehensive review of changes in marine technology (during past century) and how these may influence

future Arctic Marine Transport

• Analyses of the relationships of marine reserves and protected areas to Arctic shipping and historic waterways

• Global economic analyses to better understand the regional role of Arctic sustainable development

•Creation of a Geographic Information System (GIS) of historical Arctic voyages based on time periods and

prevailing environmental conditions

Session Issues &

Research Agendas

Session: 1 Historical Perspectives



SESSION ISSUES & RESEARCH AGENDAS

28-30 September 2004

SESSION ISSUES & RESEARCH AGENDAS

Session: 2 Arctic Climate and Sea Ice Considerations

28 September 2004

Issues

• Contribution of observing systems to the International Polar Year 2007-08

•Provide monitoring and data requirements to the Global Earth Observation system (GEO) and EU/European

Space Agency Global Monitoring for Environment and Safety (GMES) program

• Increase support for the International Arctic Buoy Program

• Enhance international agreements regarding sharing information and data dissemination

• Increase support for the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

• Recognize that radar (synthetic aperture radar/SAR) information may become more difficult to share, rather

than easier

• Request to space agencies for 90 degree orbiting or polar satellites, so the high-Arctic ‘hole’ disappears from

many data sets

• Recognize that impacts of climate change are already making it possible for policy disputes to develop

• Learn how to incorporate indigenous knowledge in environmental assessments

• Develop programs to ‘rescue’ archived data and human memories that would enhance understanding of Arctic

science, policy, history, etc.

• Develop agreements to release historical data not yet available to the scientific community

• Ensure the continuation of readily available SAR data for sea ice analyses

• Increase the number of users and support for the national ice centers

• Increase communication among Arctic scientists, polar ship designers, and shipping company representatives

• Improve the communication of sea ice data to ships and ensure that data are ‘translated’ as appropriate for

different stakeholders

• Ensure that data is available in useful parameters, scales, etc. (e.g., macro- vs. micro-scale analysis; analysis

of interactions between ship hulls and ice)

Research Agenda

• Research on changing frequency and distribution of icebergs

• Regional sea ice studies in the Bering Strait region

• Improved monitoring to better understand sea ice variability

• Expanded studies to understand sea ice thickness and extent changes, and the physical/chemical nature of

sea ice

• Expanded research on fresh water flows into the Arctic Ocean

• Improved understanding of rapid climate change and ‘phase shifts’

• Improved understanding of Arctic oscillations and cycles (particularly 50-year cycles) and how they influence

sea ice variability

• Enhanced studies to improve understanding of the relationships between thermohaline circulation in the world

ocean and the Arctic system

• Studies on regional predictions and impacts of global climate change

• Improve the resolution of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to resolve the complex geographies of the Canadian

Arctic Archipelago and Russian Arctic coastal region



Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

SESSION ISSUES & RESEARCH AGENDAS

29 September 2004

Issues

• Development of regional Arctic and trans-Arctic shipping business plans

• What are the economic guarantees for Arctic Marine Transportation?

• Future Arctic Marine Transport meetings must include international institutions and financial experts within

and outside the global maritime shipping community

• Location and placement of trans-shipment ports within Arctic Marine Transport

• Require more feedback on Arctic ship damage and accidents for adequate risk assessments

• Collaborative international financing for ice-strengthened cargo ships

• Role of China and other Pacific nations in the demand for Arctic shipping

•Promotion of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) by Russia; marketing the NSR to the international shipping

community, national authorities, and regional Arctic bodies

• Closer cooperation and better communication between Russia and the international shipping community

(key objective - overcome false perceptions)

•Creation of a comprehensive catalogue of national and international rules, regulations, and laws related to

Arctic Marine Transport - all little known to the international maritime community - overcome perceived

obstacles to Arctic Marine Transport

• Potential for World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund (as well as other international financial

institutions) for investment in Arctic Marine Transport

• Understanding the perceptions of risk in the political world vs. risks to the Arctic shipping community

•Focus of the research community on seasonal, short-term Arctic sea ice forecasts vs. longer-term forecasts and projections

Research Agenda

• International trade cost-benefit analyses for Arctic routes and destinations

• Analyses of national and international security mechanisms and institutions to protect the Arctic Ocean as a

commercial shipping route;

comparative security analyses of the Panama Canal, Suez Canal, and trans-Arctic routes

• Analyses of sovereignty and other international legal issues involving Arctic coastline and exclusive economic

zones: obstacles and opportunities?

• Synthesis of all Arctic research projects influencing Arctic Marine Transport

• Research on risk assessment for ice damage in Arctic Marine Transport systems

• Examination of economic needs and demands for trans-Arctic shipping

• Comparative economic analyses of Arctic routes vs. Suez - Panama Canal routes

• Calculations of total volume of trade vs. GDP growth regionally and internationally: How do the numbers relate

to Arctic Marine Transport?

• Economic benchmarks for trans-Arctic year-round shipping

• Economic analyses of large trans-shipment ports for Arctic Marine Transport

• Comparison of legal and political issues with environmental and technical issues

•Study of trans-Arctic shipping impediments vs. seasonal coastal shipping

• Study of types of sea ice forecasts vs. shipping company needs

• Risk assessments and environmental impact assessments for Arctic Marine Transport

• Study of the trend of increasing ship size (on global routes) in relationship to future Arctic Marine Transport

• Analysis of trends in global trans-shipping and its implications for Arctic Marine Transport

• Comprehensive analysis of all Arctic shipping damage in all regions; creation of an accident data/statistical

analysis base for the international shipping community

Session: 3 Development and Shipping Economics



29 September 2004

Issues

• All future Arctic icebreaking and ice-capable ships will be environmentally safe

•Arctic ship designs and marine system developments will be influenced by geopolitical issues

• New national legislation and international regulations/agreements on nuclear icebreaker safety

• Regulating Arctic ships for performance vs. regulating for safety

• Impacts of changing regulations for ship stack emissions

• Continuing Arctic Council support for technological and operational projects involving Arctic Marine Transport

• Sufficiency of current emission rules for regions of the Arctic

• Requirements for updated Arctic charts and aids to navigation in all coastal regions of the Arctic Ocean

• Lack of harmonized requirements for propulsion power of ice class ships (requirements for minimal power);

possible review by IMO and IACS

•Many proven technologies for Arctic ships (CPP systems, nuclear power)

Research Agenda

• Cost-effectiveness of different icebreaking propulsion systems and auxiliary systems

• Analyses of impacts of regional snow cover and ice ridges on Arctic Marine Transport

• Relationships of propulsion power to icebreaker class and the need for requirements for power specification

(for safety)

•Create a design process for pollution control mechanisms on board Arctic ships

• Development of operational guidelines/design considerations for exhaust emission and ballast water exchange

• Comparison of North American vs. European emission controls on ships; comparison of rules and regulations

in both regions

• Updates on navigation systems for new ships; installation and training issues of new navigation technologies

• Satellite vs. airborne ice information systems

•Technological considerations of diesel ships vs. nuclear ships

• Economic and environmental cost-benefit analysis of nuclear-powered icebreakers (vs. other ships)

• Comprehensive study of potential communication technologies for Arctic Marine Transport ships; complete

survey of communication

coverage for all Arctic regions

• Research on novel propulsion and auxiliary systems (example: use of ballast water for engine cooling water)

for Arctic ships

Session: 4 Technological Considerations

28-30 September 2004

SESSION ISSUES & RESEARCH AGENDAS



30 September 2004

Issues

• Have comprehensive safety and environmental protection measures based on the precautionary approach and

best practices

• Develop a model training course for ice navigation

• Use an integrated approach to Arctic Marine Transport that addresses issues of economics, the environment, and

human concerns

• Develop an international Arctic shipping regime - incremental approach, and build on existing agreements;

develop new international initiatives

• Integrate Arctic Marine Transport research projects as part of the International Polar Year 2007-08 activities

• Differentiate clearly the Northern Sea Route, the Northwest Passage, and trans-Arctic routes

• Harmonize international guidelines that apply to SOLAS (Safety of Life at Sea) standard ships operating in

defined Arctic ice-covered waters

• Understand that Arctic Marine Transport faces the prospect of major international disputes

• Develop a communications network to effectively pass reliable information into the hands of the proper individuals

Research Agenda

• Research transfer/trans-shipment ports on each end of the Northern Sea Route to minimize use of ice

strengthened vessels and icebreakers

• Determine how reductions in marine shipping risk from climate change and improved aids to navigation can

reduce the costs of insurance for Arctic Marine Transport

• Determine the range of impacts the UNCLOS (Law of the Sea) has on Arctic Marine Transport; types of vessel

operations that could be impacted are: cargo/passenger carriers; exploration ships; support and replenishment

ships; fishing vessels; mapping and scientific research vessels; and, surveillance, enforcement, and search &

rescue ships

• Increase understanding of how thinning ice in the Arctic could improve transits and regional access and

potentially make it easier to reach natural resources.

• Study the core issues of conflict: international status of waters, delimitation of continental shelf, maritime

boundaries, land boundaries, climate change, Arctic indigenous residents, international security, resource

development, and political governance

• Study key international issues - resource security, international terrorism, and new security threats - in the

context of Arctic shipping

• Analyze issues related to secure and safe Arctic Marine Transport: requirement for better navigational charts,

coordination of Arctic shipping, transmissions about safety sailing conditions to ships

•Take the next steps in building global infrastructure to include a new business model, technological challenges,

incentives to ship owners and assessment of the market potential

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

SESSION ISSUES & RESEARCH AGENDAS

Session: 5 International Cooperation and Marine Environmental Safety



28-30 September 2004

Final Issues:

Session 6

The final exercise of the workshop was a roundtable

discussion by all participants held on 30 September

2004. Unlike the previous five sessions with presen-

tations and panel discussions, Session 6 was a facilitated

open forum, where participants were asked to briefly

summarize a key issue resulting from the workshop and

their experience. Individuals were randomly selected by

the facilitators for their statements and no priority was

30 September 2004

• Certainty and predictability of regulations, passage making, passage fees, infrastructure availability, and

ship construction requirements

• Need for comprehensive analysis of historical climatological data for the entire Arctic

• Continuing the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) processes

• Concept development for trans-shipment ports on the ends of Arctic routes

• Formulate insurance and risk factors for the Northern Sea Route and other routes

• Assessment of future levels of Arctic cargo shipping for strategic planning purposes

• Study ice characteristics (and ship design parameters) from the perspective of navigation factors such as

drift, physical condition of the ice, ice dynamics, leads, etc.

• Development of more robust sea ice forecasting methods

• Development of improved communications in areas north of INMARSAT coverage for search and

rescue/emergency operations

• Research on the most appropriate systems for Arctic shipping (convoys, independent icebreaking carriers,

strategically-located icebreakers)

• Full range of marine transportation economic studies, which will uncover various issues that Arctic

shippers need to know

• Recognition of the need for profit in Arctic Marine Transport

• Note there will be large seasonal, annual, and year-to-year variations in sea ice and other physical

parameters creating challenges for future planning

• Stress the Arctic as a destination, as well as a trans-ocean waterway

• Gain commitments from national governments to back and assist in the creation of trans-shipment ports

around the Arctic Ocean

• Seek harmonization of rules governing scientific research in the Arctic

• Concept of ‘global climate change’ rather than ‘global warming’ should be used; change may bring

completely new and currently unforeseen living conditions and needs

• Future Arctic Marine Transport workshops might meet aboard an icebreaker with invitations extended to

the worldwide media

• Formulate plans for the protection of Arctic historic sites as tourism and other access increases

assigned to the topic or issue. As before, the summary

issues are not attributed to any individual or nationality.

The summary issues listed below are diverse; however,

nearly one third related to sea ice and climate, and 205

comments focused on economics and development of

Arctic Marine Transport. The keywords for each major

issue are in bold type.

Session: 6 Participant Roundtable Discussion & Key Summary Issues

FINAL ISSUES: SESSION 6

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

• Full examination, identification, and mitigation of conflicts affecting Arctic Marine Transport

• Recognition that marine environmental protection is a paramount issue with future Arctic Marine Transport

• Come to terms with a cooperative security agreement for the Arctic

• Further improve standardization of construction rules, navigation, navigator and crew training

• Research and implement improved sea ice information and communication services

• Advance studies necessary to develop best practices to minimize/prevent Arctic Marine Transport accidents

• Advanced satellite remotely-sensed images (SAR and future data) should be more available and translat-

able for ship-board use

• Ice services and products of different countries should be pooled to provide navigational support

• Must have the Arctic national authorities, the Arctic Council, and international scientific bodies, to discuss

and understand the complex range of issues involving Arctic Marine Transport

Participant Roundtable Discussion & Key Summary Issues continued



FINAL ISSUES: SESSION 6

28-30 September 2004

A-1

APPENDIXES

Appendixes

Appendix A . . . . . . . . . . .Workshop Agenda

Appendix B . . . . . . . . . . .Workshop Participants

Appendix C . . . . . . . . . . .Abstracts of Presentations

Appendix D . . . . . . . . . . .Shipping Data for the Northern Sea Route

Appendix E . . . . . . . . . . .Canadian Arctic Marine Traffic (June–November 2004)

Appendix F . . . . . . . . . . .Transits of the Northwest Passage

Appendix G . . . . . . . . . . .Icebreakers that have reached the North Pole

Appendix H . . . . . . . . . . .Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)

Appendix I . . . . . . . . . . .Arctic Council’s Arctic Marine Strategic Plan

Appendix J . . . . . . . . . . .A Vision for the Arctic: Governor Walter J. Hickel

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

A-2

APPENDIX A: WORKSHOP AGENDA

Appendix A: Workshop Agenda

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

Scott Polar Research Institute

28-30 September 2004

Tuesday, 28 September 2004

• Introduction (Brigham)

•Welcome to Scott Polar (Dowdeswell)

• Institute of the North and Aims of CITF (Parker and Ellis)

•Pre-Workshop Issues from the Participants (Brigham)

Session 1: Historical Perspectives

Chair: Barr

• Northwest Passage Voyages (Headland)

• Northern Sea Route System: History and Current Operation

(Babich)

• Central Arctic Ocean and Trans-Arctic Voyages (Brigham)

• Marine Trafficability Studies in the Alaskan Arctic (Voelker)

• Panel Discussion/Research Agenda

- Commentary: Barr

- Panel Members: Backman, Mikhailichenko and Parker

Session 2: Arctic Climate and Sea Ice Considerations

Chair: Brigham

•Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Multiyear Sea Ice Changes (Sandven)

•Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Changes (Wadhams)

• Sea Ice Trends in the Russian Arctic (Pryamikov)

• Sea Ice Trends in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (Falkingham)

• Sea Ice Trends Around Greenland (Hansen)

• Sea Ice in Icelandic Waters (Jakobsson)

• Panel Discussion/Research Agenda

- Commentary: Brigham

- Panel Members: Brass, Seina, Van Woert and Gorman

Arctic Marine Transport Reception honoring

Dr. Terence Armstrong

5:30 p.m., Scott Polar Research Institute Museum

Wednesday, 29 September 2004

Session 3: Development and Shipping Economics

Chair: Parker

•International Northern Sea Route Program: Lessons Learned (Østreng)

• ARCOP: Western Siberian Oil and Gas Marine Transport (Juurmaa)

• The NSR and Development of the Russian Arctic (Granberg)

• Future of Canadian Arctic Shipping (Gorman)

• Russian Indigenous People and the NSR (Etylin)

• Panel Discussion/Research Agenda

- Commentary: Parker

- Panel Members: Smith, Paterson, Baldursson, Rasti, Doyle

Wednesday, 29 September 2004 continued

Session 4: Technological Considerations

Chairs: Santos-Pedro and Peresypkin

• Ship Design Considerations for the Russian Arctic (Peresypkin)

• Future Icebreaking Cargo Ship Designs (Juurmaa)

• Future Icebreaker Designs (Rupp)

• Update of Arctic Shipping Rules (Hayward)

• Remote Sensing/Observing Systems: ICEMON and Northern View

(Seina and Randell)

• Panel Discussion/Research Agenda

- Commentary: Santos-Pedro and Peresypkin

- Panel Members: Backman, Jaan, Voelker and Monko

Arctic Marine Transport Banquet

• 7:00 p.m., Sidney Sussex College, Keynote Speaker,

Captain Anders Backman

•Topic: International Arctic Ocean Drilling Program 2004

Expedition in the Central Arctic Ocean

Thursday, 30 September 2004

Session 5: International Cooperation and Marine

Environmental Safety

Chair: Treadwell

• Noncommercial Partnership and the NSR (Mikhailichenko)

• Development and Future of the Arctic Guidelines (Santos-Pedro)

• Implications for Delimiting the Arctic Continental Shelf (Macnab)

• International Arctic Marine Safety Cooperation and Issues (Huebert)

• Hydrographic Considerations for the NSR (Medvedev)

• Polar Sea Route as a Global Infrastructure Project (Yamamoto)

• Panel Discussion/Research Agenda

- Commentary: Treadwell

- Panel Members: Sidock, McClellan, Hayward and Pryamikov

Session 6: The Future of Arctic Marine Transport

Chairs: Brigham and Ellis

•Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (Brigham)

• The Arctic Council's Arctic Marine Strategic Plan (Gudmundsottir)

• Future Arctic Development: A Global Vision (Governor Hickel)

• Roundtable Discussion: Future Research and Key Issues

(All Participants)

• Adjourn (Brigham and Ellis)

28-30 September 2004

A-3

APPENDIX B: WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS

Appendix B: Workshop Participants

• Nikolai Babich, Murmansk Shipping Company, Russia

• Anders Backman, Master Mariner, Sweden

• Ragnar Baldursson, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Iceland

•William Barr, Arctic Institute of North America, Canada

•Tony Bilkinghurst, Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge

University, UK

• Philip Bottomley, BP Shipping Limited, UK

• Garry Brass, US Arctic Research Commission, USA

• Lawson Brigham (Co-chair), US Arctic Research Commission, USA*

• Julian Dowdeswell, Director, Scott Polar Research Institute,

Cambridge University, UK

• John Doyle, 64th Parallel International, USA

• Ben Ellis (Co-chair), Institute of the North, USA *

• Vladimir Etylin, Russian Association of Indigenous People of the

North, Russia

• John Falkingham, Canadian Ice Service, Canada

• Robert Gorman, Enfotech Technical Services, Canada

• Alexander Granberg, Council for Study of Productive Forces and

Economic Cooperation, Russia

• Soffia Gudmundsottir, Secretariat, Protection of the Arctic Marine

Environment, Iceland

• Keld Q. Hansen, Danish Meteorological Institute, Demark

• Richard Hayward, Germanischer Lloyd AG, Germany

• Bob Headland, Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge

University, UK

•Walter Hickel, Institute of the North, USA

• Keith Hill, Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge University, UK

• Rob Huebert, University of Calgary, Canada

• Roy Jaan, Swedish Marine Administration, Sweden

• Thor Jakobsson, Marine Meteorology and Sea Ice, Iceland

• Kimmo Juurmaa, Aker Finnyards, Inc., Finland

• Ron Macnab, Geological Survey of Canada, Canada

• Daniel McClellan, US Coast Guard, USA

• Victor Medvedev, State Unitary Hydrographic Department, Russia

• Vladimir Mikhailichenko, Noncommercial Partnership of the

Coordination of the Northern Sea Route Usages, Russia *

• Nikolay Monko, Federal Agency for Marine and River Transport,

Ministry of Transport, Russia

•Willy Østreng, Norway Academy of Science and Letters, Norway

•Walter Parker, Circumpolar Infrastructure Task Force, USA *

•Tom Paterson, Fednav Limited, Canada

• Vladimir Pavlenko, International Arctic Science Committee, Russia

• Vsevolov Peresypkin, Central Marine Research and Design

Institute, Russia

•Sergei Pryamikov, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Russia

• Charles Randell, C-Core Memorial University, Canada

• Lai Chan Rasti, European Bank for Reconstruction & Development

Transport Team, UK

• Karl-Heinz Rupp, Hamburg Ship Model Basin, Germany

• Stein Sandven, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing

Center, Norway

•Victor Santos-Pedro, Transport Canada, Canada *

• Steven Sawhill, Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge

University, UK

• Ari Seina, Finnish Institute of Marine Research, Finland

• Gary Sidock, Canadian Coast Guard, Canada

• Andrew Smith, Lloyds Register of Shipping, UK

• Matthew Stubbs, Columbia University, USA

•Mead Treadwell, US Arctic Research Commission, USA *

•Michael Van Woert, US National Ice Center, USA

•Richard Voelker, US Maritime Administration, USA

• Peter Wadhams, Cambridge University, UK

• Norio Yamamoto, Global Infrastructure Fund Research

Foundation, Japan

Staff

•Matthew Moon, Institute of the North, USA

• Hillary Pesanti, Institute of the North, USA

• Malcolm Roberts, Institute of the North, USA

• Shirley Sawtell, Scott Polar Research Institute Library,

Cambridge University, UK

• Amanda Saxton, US Arctic Research Commission, USA

• Isabella Warren, Scott Polar Research Institute Library,

Cambridge University, UK

* = Members of the International Organizing Committee

Note: Professor Kaj Riska of Helsinki Technical University was also a

member of the international organizing committee, but was unable

to attend the workshop.

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

A-4

APPENDIX C: ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

Appendix C: Abstracts of Presentations

Icebreakers and Ice Type Vessels Operation Experience at Northern Sea Route

Nikolai Babich, Murmansk Shipping Company, Russia

Session 1: Historical Perspectives

The Northern Sea Route embraces the full water-areas of Arctic seas (Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, west-

ern part of Chukchi Sea) as well as part of the Arctic Ocean water area exclusively inside the Russian Federation

economic zone. The main tool of Northern Sea Route exploration is the icebreaker fleet. At present, the total power of the

operative icebreaker fleet of Russia (14 icebreakers) constitutes approximately 600,000 horsepower, where eight ice-

breakers with approximately 400,000 horsepower are working in the Northern Sea Route.

Regular commercial navigation in Arctic seas during the limited summer period started in 1920. In the following years,

the navigation time was prolonged due to icebreaker fleet power increase. After the icebreakers of "Arktika" type were put

into operation in 1978, year-round navigation was guaranteed in the western part of Northern Sea Route. At the same

time, new routes of navigation were explored, including those passing along the northern borders of Arctic seas as well as

high latitude and pole-close routes.

In the last 50 years of active cargo operations at the Northern Sea Route, the Arctic sea transportation system was

established, which includes icebreaker, navigational-hydrographic, hydrometeorological (science-operative) navigation

service. A sufficient base of categorized data including general and regional weather conditions and ice process was

accumulated, basic technical requirements for construction and equipment of icebreakers and ice type vessels were

defined and the basic laws of transportation depending on seasonal changes of ice condition at directions of Arctic trans-

portation were found. This provides the opportunity to design reliable transportation-technological schemes of promising

cargo transportation including the requirements for technical conditions, equipment of vessels and next generation icebreakers.



Central Arctic Ocean: North Pole and Trans-Arctic Voyages 1977 – 2004

Lawson Brigham, U.S. Arctic Research Commission, USA

Session 1: Historical Perspectives

One of the extraordinary polar achievements at the end of the twentieth century was the operation of icebreakers at the

Geographic North Pole and throughout the Central Arctic Ocean. During 1977 – 2004, 52 successful voyages have been

made to the North Pole by the icebreakers of Russia (42), Sweden (4), Germany (2), USA (2), Canada (1) and Norway

(1); eight surface ships reached the North Pole during the summer of 2004. Thirteen of the voyages were in support of

scientific research and the remaining 39 were devoted to tourist voyages to the North Pole and across the Arctic Ocean.

The Soviet nuclear icebreaker

Arkitka

, during a celebrated voyage, was the first surface ship to attain the Pole on 17

August 1977. The only voyage of the 52 not to be conducted in summer was that of the Soviet nuclear icebreaker

Sibir

which supported scientific operations 8 May to 19 June 1987 (reaching the Pole 25 May 1987).

Sibir

navigated in near-

maximum thickness of Arctic sea ice while removing the personnel from North Pole Drift Station 27 and establishing a

new drift station (number 29) in the northern Laptev Sea. This Arctic voyage should be considered the most demanding

icebreaker operation to date. During the decade of the 1990s, five remarkable trans-Arctic voyages were accomplished:

a transit across the Central Arctic with tourists by the Soviet nuclear icebreaker

Sovetskiy Soyuz

in August 1991; transits

by the

Louis S. St-Laurent

(Canada) and the

Polar Sea

(USA) during July and August 1994 from the Bering Strait to the

North Pole and to Svalbard; and two crossings by the nuclear icebreaker

Yamal

(Russia) with tourists in 1996. The Arctic

Ocean Section 1994 Expedition (conducted by the

Louis S. St-Laurent

and

Polar Sea

) was the first scientific transect of

the Arctic Ocean conducted by surface ships. The expedition made extensive use of real-time satellite imagery (received

aboard the

Polar Sea

) for strategic navigation and scientific planning. During the late summer of 2004, a small ‘armada’

consisting of the nuclear icebreaker

Sovetskiy Soyuz

, the icebreaker

Oden

(Sweden) and the icebreaker

Vidar Viking

outfitted for drilling, conducted a historic scientific drilling voyage in the remote reaches of the Arctic Ocean.

A review of these pioneering voyages indicates that marine access in summer throughout the Arctic Ocean has been

achieved by highly capable icebreakers. However, little is known about the challenges of voyaging in other seasons except

Sibir’s

expedition in May and June 1987. The nuclear icebreakers of Murmansk Shipping Company have clearly pioneered

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APPENDIX C: ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

independent operations in the Central Arctic Ocean, while conventionally powered icebreakers have operated in tandem

during high-latitude voyages. A compilation and analyses of ship performance and environmental data from each of these

Arctic voyages would make a significant contribution to understanding the future operation of ships in the Central Arctic

Ocean.



Russian Indigenous People and the Northern Sea Route

Vladimir Etylin, Russian Association of Indigenous People of the North, Russia

Session 3: Development and Shipping Economics

This report dealt with social issues in developing the Northern Sea Route. The view of using more traditional

knowledge of Native people of the Arctic and the knowledge of non-Native people who are long-time residents of the Arctic

region of Russia was put forth concerning the environment, the ocean, ice, shelter and traditional food and clothing in

Arctic conditions.

The two basic issues focused on were:

1. A global approach to Arctic issues "Arctic Civilization;" and

2. Key concerns of the Native people of Chukotka should the Northern Sea Route be developed.



Sea Ice in the Canadian Arctic

John Falkingham, Canadian Ice Service, Canada

Session 2: Arctic Climate and Sea Ice Considerations

The amount of sea ice in the Canadian Arctic has been declining in recent decades in concert with the reductions

observed in the Northern Hemisphere in general. There is mounting evidence that this reduction will continue, although

there is great uncertainty over the rate at which ice will continue to diminish. Considering the predictions of Global

Climate Models as well as the observed rate of ice reduction, it is estimated that the Canadian Arctic will experience near-

ly ice-free summer seasons starting as early as 2050 but probably not before 2100. The inter-annual variability in ice

conditions will continue to be extreme. It is quite likely that the latter half of this century will still experience occasion-

al summers with ice conditions as severe as those witnessed in the 1980s. Multi-year ice, particularly in low concentra-

tions, will present the major hazard to shipping. Small multi-year ice floes in high sea states are a significant threat as

are multi-year floes hidden in a matrix of relatively weak annual ice. Since the oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic Ocean

is that which is driven against the western flank of the Canadian Archipelago, this will likely be the last multi-year ice to

remain. As long as this remains a source of multi-year ice in the Arctic Ocean, it will continue to drift through the Canadian

Archipelago. Based on observations of changes to the ice in the Arctic Ocean itself, together with the expected patterns of

ice movement, it is conjectured that the Arctic Ocean itself may become open to trans-polar shipping routes before the

Northwest Passage.



Sea Ice Trends in the Russian Arctic

Ivan Ye. Frolov, Sergey V. Frolov, Vasily M. Smolyanitsky, Sergey M. Pryamikov

Arctic & Antarctic Research Institute of Roshydromet

Linear trend coefficients

(

Y=aX+b

) were assessed for the total concentration (ice index at a point) for the Eurasian

Arctic Seas for the whole period of ice charting (1933-2003) and separately for the last period of Arctic warming from

1946. Results show that during the summer time (August) it is possible to speak with 95% significance level on the

existence of a negative trend (decrease of ice) only for the Greenland, Barents, Kara, Chukchi Seas and for the Eurasian

Arctic as a whole, while for the Laptev and Eastern-Siberian Seas, a positive trend (increase of ice) with 95% significance

level is not exclusive.

Analysis of

spatial distribution, assessed for the period from 1946 until 1992 (end of conduction of air recon-

naissance in the Russian Arctic) shows predominance of

, positive (increase of ice) values during the winter period >

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APPENDIX C: ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

(April) for the area of Eurasian Seas, excluding the Barents Sea and a partial area of Greenland Sea, where negative

values are observed.

Due to significant variability of sea ice total concentration, greater spatial variability of

is also observed. For the

northwest Barents Sea, southwest Kara Sea, practically all area of Laptev Sea, western part of the Eastern-Siberian Sea

and southwest of the Chukchi Sea, negative values of

are observed. Simultaneously, for the northeast Barents Sea,

northeast Kara Sea, and eastern part of the Eastern-Siberian Sea, prominent areas with positive values of

are noted.

Several regions should be noted for a change of

sign from winter (April) to summer (August) seasons. These are

northeast Barents Sea (-/+), southwest Kara Sea (+/-), Laptev Sea (+/-), western part of the Eastern-Siberian Sea (+/-),

and the southwestern part of the Chukchi Sea (+/-). It is obvious that such changing linear trends make it possible to propose

the existence of several natural phenomena affecting the sea ice cover in different regions during the same season.



Future of Canadian Arctic Shipping

Bob Gorman, Enfotec Technical Services & Tom Paterson, Fednav Limited, Canada

Session 3: Development and Shipping Economics

This presentation focuses on the future of shipping into the Canadian Arctic. The discussion includes outlooks on var-

ious sectors that are served by marine transportation including community sealift operations, the resource industry

(mining and oil/gas), as well as tourism.

Northern Canadian native communities have the fastest rate of population growth in Canada and one of the fastest in

the world increasing at a rate of 16% per decade so the demand on the northern sealift will continue to grow into the

future. The boost in sealift requirements will increase with the expected increase in mineral, oil and gas exploration in

the north over the coming decades.

Resources-based marine operations have suffered a decline in the Canadian Arctic with the closures of the Polaris and

Nanisivik mines in 2002. This is the first time in many decades that there are no operating mines in the Nunavut

Territory. However, there is a high level of exploration for diamonds and gold in the north and several new diamond and

gold mines will open over the coming decade. If base-metal prices remain robust, the development of base-metal mines

in the Coronation Gulf region associated with the Bathurst Road-Port project is expected. In the sub-Arctic nickel is the

commodity of choice with the Raglan Mine in Northern Quebec in full operation since 1997 and the Voisey’s Bay Mine

set to go into full production in late 2005.

Oil and gas activity is restricted to the on-shore Mackenzie Delta at this time. Plans are in place by the Aboriginal

Pipeline Group to build a gas pipeline to the delta over the next 10 years. Once the pipeline is in place offshore oil and

gas activity in the Canadian Beaufort Sea will likely increase once again.

There was a spike in adventure tourism cruises into the Canadian Arctic over the past 10 years but this has receded

recently as the initial "wave" of tourists has past. There may be a slight increase in this sector in the future but it will

likely operate at a low level for many years to come.

Overall, it is important to note that marine operations in the Northwest Passage will be focused on destinations within

the Canadian Arctic. The commercial marine transportation industry is not focused on the passage as a shortcut over the

Panama Canal either now or within the next 10 to 20 years.



The Northern Sea Route and Development of the Russian Arctic

Alexander Granberg, Council for Study of Productive Forces and Economic Cooperation, Russia

Session 3: Development and Shipping Economics

In the 20th century, the Northern Sea Route has played a leading role in natural resources development and social

development of the Russian Arctic regions, formation of large complexes on manufacture of carbohydrates, nonferrous

metals, diamonds, wood and the world’s largest northern cities. The maximum volume of transportation on the Northern

Sea Route was achieved in 1987 (6.6 million tonnes).

Political and economic transformations in the USSR and Russia in the 1990s, had painful effects on social and

economic positions of the Russian Arctic regions (fall in manufacturing, investments and incomes, and significant

emigration). Transportation on the Northern Sea Route was reduced significantly.

Renewal of economic growth since 1999 has captured all Russian Arctic regions. Due to export of raw material and

metals, a number of the Arctic regions (Yamalo-Nenetsky and Nenetsky autonomous regions, Murmansk area) became

financial donors to Russian and world economics. In the report economic dynamics of seven regions adjoining the

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APPENDIX C: ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

Northern Sea Route are analyzed. The volume of sea transportation on the Northern Sea Route is gradually increasing.

The forecast of sea transportation on the Northern Sea Route for 2015 is developed in two variants: pessimistic 7.8

million tonnes, optimistic – 11.4 million tonnes. For maintenance of such growth of transportation, modernization of ice-

breaking and transport fleet and reconstruction of all Arctic ports and infrastructure is planned.



The Arctic Marine Strategic Plan

Soffia Gudmondsottir, Protection of Arctic Marine Environment (PAME)

Session 6: The Future of Marine Arctic Transport

The Arctic marine environment is of great importance to the states of the Arctic region and the world as a whole. It

holds some of the most important seas for commercial fisheries in the world, has unique socio-cultural aspects, economic

potential and plays an integral role in climatic processes.

Abundant natural resources, increasing economic activity and significant changes due to climatic processes are result-

ing in increased use, opportunities and threats to the Arctic marine and coastal environments. Increased activities will

lead to increased human presence in the high Arctic. Responding to this the Arctic Council Ministers recognized that:

"…existing and emerging activities in the Arctic warrant a more coordinated and integrated strategic approach to

address the challenges of the Arctic coastal and marine environment and agree to develop a strategic plan for protection

of the Arctic marine environment under leadership by PAME." (Arctic Council Ministerial Declaration, Inari, Finland, 2002)

The Arctic Marine Strategic Plan (AMSP) has been developed over the last two years under the leadership of the

Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment Working Group with Canada and Iceland as the lead countries. The final version

will be presented to the Arctic Council Ministerial meeting to be held in Reykjavik, Iceland, 24 November 2004 for approval.

The purpose of the AMSP is to guide Arctic Council activities related to the protection of the Arctic seas. One of the

aims of this plan is to build on the internationally recognized need to manage human activities within the context of entire

ecosystems, applying them to achieve the sustainable development of the Arctic marine environment.



Variability in the Sea Ice Cover near Greenland - Recent Observations

Keld Q. Hansen, Denmark Meteorological Institute, Denmark

Session 2: Arctic Climate and Sea Ice Considerations

Operational sea ice mapping for navigational use is an excellent opportunity to get details on sea ice conditions and

variability in a key area in Greenland. This presentation briefly describes the operational Denmark Meteorological Institute

activities near the Greenland shores. Observations through the last 2-3 years have generally shown ice conditions lighter

than normal, especially in Northeast Greenland where the multi-year ice has retreated dramatically in three consecutive

summers from 2002 (record low) to 2004. The West Greenland ice seasons since 2002 have also been characterized by

being short and light. In February 2004 a Danish (ice-strengthened) cargo vessel was able to go to the harbors in Disko

Bay, normally impossible without icebreaker assistance. To the south ice conditions in recent years were more diffuse,

from an extremely light and short ice sea season in 2003 to a longer than normal ice season in 2004. These events are

discussed in relation to the record for the years 1946-2004 for the South Greenland Waters. A new feature observed here

was several giant tabular iceberg or ice islands of Northeast Greenland origin after the remarkable breakup of semi-

permanent fast ice in 2002 and 2003 near latitude 78.00-79.30N.



The New IACS Unified Requirements for Polar Ships

Richard Hayward, Germanischer Lloyd AG, Germany

Session 4: Technological Considerations

The new IACS Unified Requirements for Polar Ships, along with international guidelines, answer the call of IMO and

national administrations for a proactive, comprehensive and unified approach to the safeguarding of life, property and the

environment in polar waters. The IACS Unified Requirements for Polar Ships are a set of construction standards for the

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APPENDIX C: ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

hull and machinery of vessels navigating polar ice-covered waters. The purpose of these requirements is to enable polar

class ships to withstand the effects of global and local ice loads, as well as temperatures, characteristic of their polar class.

Despite the obvious difficulties in unifying various requirements based on decades of contrary experiences and design

philosophies, the IACS Unified Requirements for Polar Ships constitute a state-of-the-art set of construction require-

ments. In the structural standards, for instance, ice loads are defined on the basis of ice collision mechanics with due

regard to ice failure mechanisms and observed pressure-area relationships between load levels and contact area.

Structural response criteria are defined in terms of plastic limit states, including interactions between shear and bend-

ing, thereby providing much clearer pictures of ship safety levels than the elastic response criteria normally used.

Concerning future development of the IACS Unified Requirements for Polar Ships, the most important issues are the

definition of loads based on additional ship-ice interaction scenarios (especially that of a ship caught under pressure),

enhanced integration of limit state design concepts and more explicit definitions of risk levels. The question of whether

ship propulsion power is a matter of safety and/or performance also needs to be addressed.



Northwest Passage Voyages

Bob Headland, Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge University, United Kingdom

Session 1: Historical Perspectives

A historical summary of exploration and transits of the Northwest Passage is presented noting that the first transit was

made in 1853 (led by Samuel Cresswell) although this was by sledge across the sea-ice in the central portion. The centenary

of the first transit aboard one vessel (Gjøa, commanded by Ronald Amundsen) was described. A chronological list of all

transits to the 2004 summer was produced for analysis by route, nationality, and other factors.

Vessels have used seven routes through the passage. There have been a total of 99 transits to date, 27 of which have

carried passengers. Of these, 62 were eastbound and 37 westbound, almost half of them (45) used the southern route. Only

one vessel has made a complete transit through McClure Strait and the northern route, the most ice-infested, but deep-

est, way. This is the course used by submarines but these records are incomplete. The majority of vessels wore the

Canadian flag (38), followed by Russia (18 - mainly with tourists aboard), United States and Bahamas (11 each, the lat-

ter being tourist vessels). Eleven flags were represented by only one vessel each.

Comparisons between the Northwest Passage, Northern Sea Route, and other ways between the North Sea and the Sea

of Japan were made involving distance, navigational problems, and territories traversed. While distances of both the Arctic

routes are similar between the North Sea and the Sea of Japan, navigation is much easier in the Northern Sea Route.

Should reduction of Arctic ice cover develop further, the relative ease of both may be expected to persist, thus the

Northern Sea Route will remain the more effective passage.

References to some personal observations were included following several voyages through the Northwest Passage and

Northern Sea Route.



International Politics and Arctic Shipping

Rob Huebert, University of Calgary, Canada

Session 5: International Cooperation & Marine Environmental Safety

A scientific consensus is now developing that the polar regions are experiencing a substantial warming process.

As such, considerable debate is emerging as to the impact that this will have on human activity in the region. Of partic-

ular note are the questions regarding the prospects of increased shipping in Arctic waters. While some preliminary obser-

vations on the expected nature of this increase may be made, many questions remain unanswered. Perhaps the most con-

founding issues pertain to the future actions taken by the Arctic coastal states.

The first and perhaps most complicated issue revolves around issues of sovereignty. Canada and Russia have both

claimed the Arctic waterways passing through their Arctic region as internal waters. While both states are committed to

promoting international shipping through these waters, they do not accept the Northwest Passage or the Northern Sea

Route as international straits. The United States and the European Union, on the other hand, have taken the position that

these are international waters. This disagreement creates numerous problems. The first is over control. If these waters are

internal, then the relative coastal state retains control over shipping in these waters. On the other hand, if they are not,

then the rules and standards governing international shipping are to be determined by the competent international organ-

izations. The second main problem is the political sensitivity that surrounds theses disputes. A challenge to the position

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APPENDIX C: ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

of any of these states carries ramifications that go beyond the Arctic. This greatly increases the challenges in resolving

the differences that will arise as shipping increases. How then can these differences be managed as shipping increases?

The second major set of concerns facing a developing international arctic shipping regime pertains to security. Any

increase in shipping in the region will require an increase in the monitoring and enforcement of domestic and interna-

tional laws governing smuggling, environmental standards, ship safety and so forth. Given the isolated nature of the Arctic

waters such requirements are challenging. Further complicating these issues is the new need to protect against international

terrorism. Currently there seems little likelihood that international terrorists would specifically target the north; however, an

increase in the number of Arctic ships can never be ruled out as future targets. Furthermore, an increase in shipping will

mean that terrorists could use this traffic as a means of entry to either North America or Russia. How then is security to

be protected in this region? What are the steps that can be taken individually and collaboratively?

Thus, it is clear that there is a need to carefully consider the international challenges that face the emerging interna-

tional shipping regime in the Arctic. How can these important questions be answered so that any increased Arctic ship-

ping can be managed in a fair and safe manner? These questions will be the main focus of this presentation.



The Northern Sea Route - Interest in Iceland

Thor Jakobsson, Marine Meteorology and Sea Ice, Iceland

Session 2: Arctic Climate and Sea Ice Considerations

The name Iceland stems from the surprising sight of sea ice during one of the first Scandinavian exploration voyages

to this newly found country in the ninth century, A.D. Sea ice at Iceland originates mainly from the East Greenland cur-

rent and has been very variable through the ages. It has quite often caused trouble of different kinds, hazards for ship-

ping along the coasts of Iceland and sometimes closed harbors in the north.

Despite this hazard Icelanders have learned how to avoid the sea ice, or, if needed, traverse carefully along the mar-

ginal sea ice zone. In recent decades they have ventured further North into subarctic conditions for fishing and transport

activities. It is, therefore, no wonder that the idea of looking for possibilities still further north, even across the Arctic

Ocean, is gradually catching on in Iceland.

The suggestion of considering the possible role of Iceland in connection with the so-called Northern Sea Route is no

longer a futuristic idea and has in recent months been investigated again from a practical point of view. The idea, how-

ever, still needs a thorough study where links to recent projects on the Northern Sea Route itself, along the coasts of

Russia, have to be considered. The International Sea Route Program (Phase I 1993-1995 and Phase II 1995-1999)

resulted in a great number of papers on different aspects of the idea of future route across the Arctic Ocean.

On October 8, 1987, a conference was held in Iceland on the Northern Sea Route and the possibility of Icelandic har-

bors being linked to the route. In particular, the idea of Iceland providing a location for an entrepot at the North Atlantic

end of the Northern Sea Route was discussed. With the participation of the American Embassy as well as the rather hes-

itant Soviet Embassy in Iceland, the timing of the meeting turned out to be fortunate. News was received just before the

meeting of an encouraging speech given on October 1, 1987, in Murmansk by Mr. Mikhail Gorbachev on Arctic matters.

In his speech Mr. Gorbachev announced the possibility of opening the Northern Sea Route to foreign ships.

During the more than 15 years since this meeting, the idea has been kept alive by architect Gestur Ólafsson,

Ambassador Ólafur Egilsson and the writer of this brief account. The possible role of Iceland has been emphasized, with

its advantageous location in the middle of the northern part of the North Atlantic Ocean providing a gateway to the Arctic

Ocean. The necessity of economic and technical feasibility studies has been pointed at, as well as the consideration of

natural circumstances in relation to this opportunity, in particular, concerning weather, sea ice and oceanographic condi-

tions along the sea route.

Lately, encouraging interest in this topic has been created, not the least due to the support given by Björn Gunnarsson

at the University of Iceland. During this period of interest, some progress has been made, marked by meetings at the

Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a report by Nigel Chattey, containing a pre-feasibility assessment and a proposal for a

demonstration project including suggestions for possible participation of the United States and Canada.

It should further be mentioned that a study is being undertaken on the idea of establishing an entrepot harbor at

Isafjordur in northwest Iceland. Previously, the harbors at Reykjavik and Reydarfjordur in East Iceland had been suggested.

The main conclusion of the research made during the International Northern Sea Route Program is that in spite of cli-

matic, technological and political restraints, an increase in international commercial shipping along the Northern Sea

Route is feasible – in economic, technological and environmental terms.

Decreasing ice cover in the Arctic Ocean during the last decades should support the idea of Iceland becoming an impor-

tant entrepot for the Northern Sea Route, the shortest shipping route between the two world oceans, the Atlantic Ocean

and the Pacific Ocean.



Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

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APPENDIX C: ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

ARCOP - Oil and Gas Transportation from the Western Arctic Russia

Kimmo Juurmaa, Kvaerner Masa-Yards, Inc. (now Aker Finnyards, Inc.), Finland

Session 3: Development and Shipping Economics

ARCOP comes from the words Arctic Operational Platform. It is a research and development project for the Northern

Sea Route. ARCOP is co-funded by the Directorate-General Energy and Transport under the 5th European Community

Framework Program for Research and Technological Development.

The work within is carried out by leading experts from European Union (EU), Russia and Norway. There are 21 partic-

ipating organizations and the overall budget is 5.2 million euros. The funding from EU is 3.2 million euros with the rest

coming from participating organizations. The scope of work is coordinated by Kvaerner Masa-Yards, Inc. (now Aker

Finnyards, Inc.) in Finland.

Oil and gas development in Arctic Russia suffers from the lack of export routes. Several alternatives have been studied

and suggested. Marine transportation using the Northern Sea Route is a vital alternative, but several issues raise con-

cerns among the potential investors. Investing in an oil field without knowing the terms and the cost of the transportation

of the produced oil is not possible. To minimize these concerns, clarification is needed in several areas: technology, legal

and administrative issues and environmental protection.

ARCOP aims to create an understanding about marine transportation problems of Russian Arctic oil and gas, and answer

questions that potential investors may have on a general level. Making information available, ARCOP will generate

permanent discussion forums between the EU and Russia and between industry and politicians. It is sometimes easier

to discuss certain challenges based on realistic scenarios with direct commercial interest. Using this strategy, it is possible

to develop common recommendations.



Chapter B Future Arctic Cargo Vessels

Kimmo Juurmaa, Kvaerner Masa-Yards, Inc. (now Aker Finnyards, Inc.), Finland

Session 4: Technological Considerations

When designing vessels for Arctic areas, certain principles are normally followed. The first deals with the safety of

human life, the environment and material property. Basically this is simple, but it becomes complicated when one starts

to analyse the different accident scenarios and tries to set the requirements for the strength, maneuverability and stability

of the vessel in different situations. Damage statistics is an efficient way to approach this problem, but unfortunately there

is only a limited amount of data available from accident statistics in the Arctic areas. Some detailed analyses of individual

sailings reveal that the current rules for vessel construction need further development. Rules should not be based on

single measurements but rather on long term experience and statistics.

The second principle is economics. This is more complicated since the economics of transportation has several levels.

Towing by an icebreaker may be feasible for a single vessel, but the overall transportation cost may be high. Also, if the

whole sea area and the transportation needs of the industry in that region are considered, the towing of each vessel

through the ice may be less economically feasible.

A typical feature for the ice cover in all Arctic sea is the seasonal variation (fully open water conditions to 100 % ice

coverage). In most cases the transportation is not to the ice edge, but the route includes also an open water leg even

during the hardest winter months. This means that the economics of the transportation is not only dependent on the ice-

breaking performance of the vessel, but also the open water characteristics. Thus, an efficient cargo vessel has to be

optimised for both ice and open water, which may result in compromises that are not really efficient in any condition.

Several different hull forms have been proposed throughout the history for icebreaking purposes; almost all have been

developed to break uniform level ice. In practise the vessels operating in ice have to cope with a mixture of different type

of ice conditions, including ice ridges which most probably will stop the ship. One solution presented a century ago was

that of the Russian Admiral Makarov. He suggested that the propellers and the propeller stream should be utilised to help

the vessel to move through the ice ridges. This idea was adopted to the sub-arctic icebreakers and they were equipped

with propellers also in the bow. The largest and most advanced icebreaker in the Baltic used to be built with this princi-

ple. The reason to have propellers at both ends of the vessel was that the stern was fitted with rudders for steering and

the bow was used to break passage though the ridges. It was only when developing the azimuth thrusters with electric

drive, the so called Azipod propulsion, when the full advantage of this principle could be utilised. It was possible to put

all the power at one end of the vessel and still have full steering capability. The first vessels built with this principle were

tested in the most difficult ice conditions. The test results showed that power savings up to 50% could be gained. The

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APPENDIX C: ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

ice model testing showed the tremendous difference in penetrating the ridges: when running ahead, the vessel must do

continuous ramming to get through the ridge; when running astern, the vessel was able to maintain continuous speed with

no need to ram.

Encouraged by these results, a 106,000 tdw vessel was built with the principle called Double Acting Tanker (DAT). The

vessel has a bow shape optimised for open water conditions. The stern of the vessel is designed for ice breaking and with

the help of a 16 MW Azipod propulsion unit, the vessel was able to transit all ice conditions in the Baltic. During ice

trials in winter 2003 the vessel was tested in ice ridges 15 m deep. The vessel had no problems getting through these

ice features.

The use of new technology may open up new possibilities for the Arctic navigation. Based on the long term extensive

research and development work the first vessel using the DAT principle is now under construction for the Northern Sea

Route conditions. This 14,500 tdw container carrier is planned to operate on the western region of the Northern Sea Route

with minimum assistance from icebreakers. The vessel will be completed in 2006 and if the vessel works in practise as

planned, we may see a completely new scheme of Arctic navigation for the future.



Arctic Marine Transport and the Juridical Continental Shelf:

The Conflicting Impacts of Thinning Ice and UNCLOS Article 76

Ron Macnab, Geological Survey of Canada (Retired), Canada

Session 5: International Cooperation and Marine Environmental Safety

The juridical map of the Arctic Ocean will likely change substantially over the next decade or so, as the five surround-

ing coastal states (Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and the USA) seek to extend significant sovereign rights beyond

their usual 200 nautical mile limits. Under the provisions of Article 76 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of

the Sea (UNCLOS), these extensions of sovereignty will be exercised in several ways: jurisdiction over the living and non-

living resources of the seabed and subsoil; control over the emplacement and use of submarine cables and pipelines, arti-

ficial islands, installations and structures; regulation of drilling; control and prevention of marine pollution; and regula-

tion of marine scientific research.

Most, if not all, of the activities that will be affected by the new sovereign rights involve the use of vessels, be they

deployed as operating platforms or as carriers of cargo and passengers. With the prospect of thinning ice cover in the

central Arctic Ocean, we can expect to see an increase in the number and variety of vessels deployed throughout the region

for these purposes. Conversely, where ship operations are currently subject to relatively few legal hindrances in the high

seas beyond 200 nautical miles, eventually they will have to comply with new coastal state regulations within extended

continental shelves that could almost totally encompass the central Arctic Ocean.

This presentation will describe how thinning ice could make the central Arctic Ocean amenable to expanded vessel

operations, while Article 76 of UNCLOS will simultaneously transform a large portion of the Arctic high seas into a zone

where new coastal state jurisdiction could curtail some of these same operations.



Navigational and Hydrographic Support of Shipping on the Waterways of the Northern Sea Route

Victor Medvedev, State Unitary Hydrographic Department, Russia

Session 5: International Cooperation & Marine Environmental Safety

The navigational and hydrographic support of shipping on the waterways of the Northern Sea Route is entrusted in

Russia to the federal body of executive power in the field of transport – Ministry of Transport. The Federal State Unitary

Hydrographic Department of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation is directly responsible for Navigation and

Hydrographic Support since its establishment in 1933.

Areas to be covered: Hydrographic Survey of Russian Arctic seas and inland waterways suitable for sea navigation in

view of publishing navigational charts and manuals; maintenance of navigational aids; pilotage and composition of the

Arctic pilot service; measures on the prevention of pollution from ships in Arctic seas; and ways to improve the Northern

Sea Route Navigation and Hydrographic Support.



Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

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APPENDIX C: ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

Noncommercial Partnership of the Coordination of the Northern Sea Route Usages

Vladimir Mikhailichenko, Noncommercial Partnership of the Coordination of the Northern Sea Route Usages, Russia

Session 5: International Cooperation & Marine Environmental Safety

The presentation gives a historical outline of the Partnership foundation. It identifies its main goals and objectives,

highlighting the most important: the development of federal law of the Russian Federation concerning the Northern Sea

Route. The presentation will also dwell upon the structure of the Partnership and briefly characterize some of its member

organizations. Information on how legal bodies can become Partnership members will be shared. Statistical information

in the form of tables about the Northern Sea Route will be included also on the following:

• Annual traffic on the Northern Sea Route 1933 – 2003 (thousand tonnes)

• Main characteristics of Arctic shipping during the period of 1985 – 2003 (total amount of cargo, number of ships and

number of voyages)

• Cargo turnover of Arctic ports (thousand tonnes) – name of ports, the year in maximum as compared with 2003

• Annual transit traffic along Northern Sea Route 1991 – 1997 and main types of cargo

•Preliminary assessment of marine Arctic cargo shipment for the period up 2015 as estimated by Russian research

institutes.



The International Northern Sea Route Program (INSROP): Lessons Learned

Willy Østreng, Norway Research Foundation, Norway

Session 3: Development and Shipping Economics

Among all the lessons learned from this comprehensive research program on the Northern Sea Route, only a sketchy

depiction of the outcome and premises of the research will be addressed and assessed in light of the guiding principles

laid down in the 3rd Draft of the Arctic Marine Strategic Plan of 7 June 2004. The purpose of the INSROP was to build

up a scientifically based foundation of specialized and integrated knowledge encompassing all relevant aspects related to

navigating the Northern Sea Route, so as to enable public authorities and private interests to make rational decisions based

on scientific insight. To this end, INSROP was organized as a five-year multidisciplinary and multinational research

program split into four sub-programs:

I. Natural conditions and Ice navigation

II. Environmental factors and Challenges

III. Trade and Commercial Shipping

IV. Political, Legal, Cultural and Military-strategic factors.

The program was designed around two countervailing variables: obstacles to increasing utilization and factors that pro-

mote increasing utilization. These variables were subsequently broken down into two parameters: natural and societal. The

approach was to link the natural and societal and parameters so as to better understand the complexity, distribution,

variability, interactional pattern and value composition of the navigational challenges facing the Northern Sea Route. To

integrate the disciplinary findings of the four sub-programs, integrative concepts were developed, such as: aggregated hot

spots, issue-specific hot spot, cool spots, socio-biodiversity, multi-value navigation etc. These concepts seem suitable to

meet the ambition of the Arctic Marine Strategic Plan to base itself on an ecosystem-based management approach.



Ship Design Considerations for the Russian Arctic

Vsevolod Peresypkin, Central Marine Research and Design Institute, Russia

Session 4: Technological Considerations

Information is provided on the Russian Arctic fleet constructed during the last decades of the last century. Consideration

is given to the icebreaking cargo ships of highest ice class, capable of ensuring all-the-year-round navigation in the Arctic.

The paper sets out the performance characteristics and ice performance of nuclear-powered and diesel- driven liner and

auxiliary icebreakers providing escorting of transport vessels through the Northern Sea Route seaways. The peculiarities

of various design solutions for securing ice performance of ships are discussed.



28-30 September 2004

A-13

APPENDIX C: ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

Northern View

Charles Randell, Northern View, Canada

Session 4: Technological Considerations

In February 2003, the European Space Agency (ESA) awarded C-CORE of Newfoundland, Canada a contract to initiate

Northern View as a Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) program. Stage 1 of the program is for 20

months with the goal of defining the public sector need for northern monitoring and information that exploits the many

benefits of earth observation satellites. Earth observation is a near ideal tool in the northern context, readily providing

information on the large inaccessible regions. This information supports monitoring and analysis of issues relating to the

environment (e.g. climate change, pollution, biodiversity), security (e.g. human activity monitoring, disaster management,

search and rescue), and sustainable development (e.g. resource exploration, site remediation, bio-productivity monitoring).

It is ideally suited to provide either high or low-resolution ice information over many thousands of square kilometers in

real time. The Northern View team has over 30 participants from six countries.

It is the long-term objective of the Northern View to become a sustainable, "one-stop-shop" for information required by

government and other public agencies, shipping interests, indigenous peoples, and other northern stakeholders. In the

short-term the goal is to provide northern information based at least in part on satellite surveillance. These information

services currently include ship and iceberg detection, high-resolution ice type, concentration and thickness charts,

glacier monitoring, and various other northern monitoring activities.

The program has continued to grow and is considered so successful that the plan for Stage 2 is to merge a compatible

GMES program, ICEMON, with Northern View. The new proposed program is Polar View. Stage 2 will be for three years.

Further information can be found at www.northernview.org.



Icebreakers Today and Trends for the Future

Karl-Heinz Rupp, Hamburg Ship Model Basin, Germany

Session 4: Technological Considerations

Developments over the past few decades concerning hull form and propulsion concepts for icebreakers are reviewed.

The operating of icebreakers today for guiding other vessels and in particular for guiding much larger vessels in the future

will present a challenge for icebreakers and for icebreaking tactics.

The increased use of icebreakers for a variety of new tasks will affect their design and will result in a larger work scope

for these vessels in the future. Examples for such extended applications of icebreakers are for instance platform supply,

standby with emergency rescue duties for offshore platforms, oil recovery and research.



Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Multiyear Sea Ice Changes

Stein Sandven and O. M. Johannessen, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Norway

Session 2: Arctic Climate and Sea Ice Considerations

The Arctic sea ice is predicted to change severely in the 21st century as a consequence of the global warming. Many

human activities will be affected by a reduced ice cover such as ship transport, tourism, offshore operations, fisheries

and living conditions for indigenous people in the north. Observing the Arctic sea ice area and extent has been done

successfully for the last 2-3 decades using passive microwave satellite data. These data have shown a decrease of the

total ice area of 3 – 4 % per decade. For multiyear ice, the reduction is more significant, about 7 – 8 % reduction per

decade. Surface air temperature data, extending back to the beginning of the 20th century, shows that there was a sig-

nificant warmer period in the 1920s – 1940s, followed by a colder period in 1950s – 1960s. Decadal variability’s in the

sea ice cover can only be detected in longer time series, but sea ice extent data for the whole century are more irregular

and scattered and, therefore, less accurate than the passive microwave satellite data. Since observational data on Arctic

sea ice is far from sufficient to estimate variability and trends of the ice volume, it is necessary to use coupled ice–ocean

models to simulate sea ice variables on seasonal, decadal and century time scale. These models need to be validated

against available data sets such as ice area from passive microwave data, ice thickness and ice motion from drifting buoys

and satellite data.

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

A-14

APPENDIX C: ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

Prediction of the Arctic sea ice during this century has been done by several climate models such as the Bergen Climate

Model, the ECHAM model and the Hadley Center’s climate model. The model results indicate that the ice area in the

summer will decrease significantly, while the winter sea ice will decrease less. The models also show that the ice thickness

will be reduced during this century, but the rate of the reducing varies between the models. Several ice thickness data

sets show more or less reduction of the ice thickness over the last few decades. The most dramatic changes indicated a

40 % reduction in thickness over the last four decades.

Operational monitoring of sea ice by satellites is an important part of the monitoring systems presently under imple-

mentation in the context of the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) where a number of institutions

from many countries are involved. One GMES project with a focus on sea ice is ICEMON, which is one of the ESA

service consolidation actions in 2003 – 2004 (http://www.icemon.org). ICEMON is preparing for the implementation of a

coherent network of monitoring services for the high latitudes, including sea ice, meteorological, oceanographic services

(met-ocean services). ICEMON will serve operational users such as ships, offshore operators and others who need near

real time information as well as climate users who need longer time series of measurements for monitoring and modeling

of seasonal, interannual and decadal variability of sea ice and other met-ocean parameters.



Arctic Shipping Rules: the Climate is…. a-Changin’

Victor Santos-Pedro, Transport Canada, Canada

Session 5: International Cooperation & Marine Environmental Safety

It is always challenging to choose the timing for rule development. Often it is imposed by circumstances of accidents

or industrial activity, and rarely the result of continuous renewal. The most recent Arctic shipping rules, originally know

as the Polar Code, were sparked by a fortuitous coincidence of negative reactions to positive initiatives that eventually

attracted attention and expertise from around the world. And now is the right time for implementation, before all of the

ice melts.

The chronology of events is straightforward, the why and how it happened is more complex. Talking about the principles

underlying each of the resultant products, the status of completion, and what is ahead may be best. The harmonization

of standards is the fundamental pillar. An integrated approach based on best practices and precaution can produce

comprehensive safety and environmental protection measures that also address economy, of effort and cost, and efficiency.

How effective the rules are depends entirely on monitoring.

The IMO Guidelines for Ships Operating in Arctic Ice-covered Waters and the IACS Polar Ship Rules Unified

Requirements for machinery and hull were introduced, as well as its respective components – construction, equipment,

operations, including the Ice Navigator endorsement concept and the education of operators. Most importantly, the

climate of acceptance for international rules predominates and leads to clear and understandable outcomes in terms of

safety and environmental protection.



ICEMON

Ari Seina, Finnish Institute of Marine Research, Finland

Session 4: Technological Considerations

ICEMON (SAR ice monitoring for climate research, environmental management, resource exploitation and marine

operation safety in Polar Regions) is a project under Stage 1 Service Consolidation Actions of the Earthwatch GMES services

Element (GSE). Coordinated by the Nansen Environmental Remote Sensing Center (Norway), ICEMON has 18 partners

from 16 countries, and links to EuroClim and IRIS projects.

Objectives of ICEMON, in the short term, is to demonstrate SAR ice monitoring in key areas of the Arctic Ocean and

surrounding seas, delivering high-resolution products. This represents that a significant improvement of the quality of ice

information in intermediate term sea ice products will gradually be integrated with meteorological and oceanographical

products, including monitoring, hindcast and forecast products. EO products based on SAR and scatterometer data will

be expanded to include ice thickness from CryoSat. The EO-based sea ice products will be used in modeling and data

assimilation for improved forecasting services. A long-term objective of ICEMON is to deliver operational monitoring and

forecasting services of met-ice-ocean conditions at high latitudes. It is envisaged that an integrated service network will

be implemented offering atmospheric, sea ice and oceanographical information products.

28-30 September 2004

A-15

APPENDIX C: ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

For the next stage of GSE (2005-2008) there is a plan to merge ICEMON and Northern View projects into a single Polar

View project, in which services should be fully operational in 2008.



Marine Trafficability Studies in the Alaskan Arctic

Richard Voelker, US Maritime Administration, USA

Session 1: Historical Perspectives

During the period 1979 to 1986, the U.S. Maritime Administration was the lead agency for a multiyear Arctic Marine

Transportation Program. The primary objectives of the program were to: (1) assess the feasibility of year-round commercial

marine operations in ice-covered waters of Alaska; (2) define the environmental conditions along potential Arctic marine

routes; and, (3) improve icebreaking ship design criteria. These objectives were met as a result of the 15 voyages aboard

the U.S. Coast Guard POLAR Class icebreakers in the Arctic and Antarctic. This paper describes the U.S. Arctic national

policy at the time as well as the many participating government agencies, industrial organizations, and academic institutions

in the program. Major achievements are highlighted, including a series of conclusions, which identify the most critical

technology and skills needed in the future. Environmental, operational, and technical data from these voyages are

contained in 58 technical reports that are available to the public.



Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Changes

Peter Wadhams, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom

Session 2: Arctic Climate and Sea Ice considerations

Major changes have occurred in Arctic Ocean ice and water structure over the pat two decades. The summer ice thickness

over much of the Arctic Basin has declined by some 40% since the 1970s amounting to a reduction in mean thickness

of 1-1.3 m with an accompanying reduction of some 73% in the frequency of deep pressure ridges. The pressure ridge

reduction in particular indicates a radical change in ice dynamics, presumably associated with a change in phase of the

Arctic Oscillation (AO). There is some evidence that the thinning slowed during the 1990s and it has been suggested that

rarely visited parts of the Arctic such as the offshore region north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago may not

share the general thinning. Satellite data has, however, shown a reduction in the area of perennial (multi-year) ice through-

out the Arctic, while there has been a steady decline in the total area of Arctic ice since 1979, with some evidence of a

recent acceleration.

The ice thinning has been accompanied by a warming of the Atlantic layer in the Arctic Ocean, a retreat of the cold

halocline layer due to re-routing of Siberian river outflows and Bering Strait inflows, and a change in the pattern of atmos-

pheric pressure over the Arctic and thus of ice dynamics. Atlantic layer warming and cold halocline retreat have been

postulated as a direct cause of ice thinning via increased ocean heat flux. The change in pressure field and hence of ice

and upper ocean circulation has been assigned to a change of phase of the AO, with the possibility suggested that global

warming induces a persistent AO of a particular phase. Such a change inevitably alters the distribution of ice thickness

and dynamics, and hence the ice flux through Fram Strait, particularly by affecting the trajectory of ice drift around the

Arctic and hence the age and deformation history of ice reaching Fram Strait. Changes in the AO also affect the salinity

of the upper water column through changes in freshwater storage by sea ice.

The ice and fresh water variability in the Fram Strait exit route couple in turn to Greenland Sea processes via the fresh

melt water which spreads over the Greenland Sea in summer, capping long-lived convective features and creating a reserve

of buoyancy which must be overcome the following winter before convection can recommence. In addition, that part of

the Arctic outflow which continues through Denmark Strait is then able to influence convection in the Labrador Sea. Thus,

the outflow of fresh water is in a position to affect two important high-latitude components of the Atlantic thermohaline

circulation.

Another important implication of Arctic sea ice thinning was pointed out by Walter Munk in the form of a mismatch

which it introduces into global estimates of sea level rise. Twentieth Century sea level rise has been estimated at 1.5-2

mm/yr with a steric component of 0.5 mm/yr. A global salinity census suggests a freshening rate equivalent to the addition of

650 km

of fresh water to the ocean per year. If this came from terrestrial runoff it would indeed yield the required

1-1.5 mm eustatic rise. Yet, the Arctic thinning rate alone adds some 600 km

/yr without altering sea level. The implica-

tions are that sea level is rising at only the steric rate, and that run-off from the retreat of subpolar glaciers must be

balanced by extraction of water elsewhere, e.g. from growth of the Antarctic ice sheet. These are serious consequences.

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

A-16

APPENDIX C: ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

A further paper refines these estimates and allows a small amount of land run-off but it is clear that, from the sea level

point of view alone, a major effort needs to be made to reduce the uncertainties in our knowledge of sea ice thinning rates.

New observations of Arctic ice thickness, made during 2003-4, reflect a transition towards new types of measurement

technique. There is still an emphasis on direct measurements from sonic techniques, but increasingly these are seen as

validation methods for satellite methods which offer the attraction of synoptic coverage of the Arctic Ocean. The main

need in ice mapping is to develop a satellite-based remote sensing technique which will enable ice thickness to be

mapped synoptically. When combined with ice velocities which can already be mapped from satellites, it will then be pos-

sible to map ice fluxes throughout the Arctic Basin. I anticipate that a combination of existing sensor data (passive and

active microwave) interpreted in new ways, and new sensors such as radar and laser altimeters, will provide a way forward

towards this goal.

It is also vital that direct sonic measurements, from submarines, AUVs and moored sonar, be continued, as well as buoy

measurements, so that any new satellite method can be subject to appropriate validation.



Polar Sea Route as a Global Infrastructure Project

Norio Yamamoto, Global Infrastructure Fund Research Foundation, Japan

Session 6: The Future of Arctic Marine Transport

In 1986 in Anchorage, Alaska, Governor Walter Hickel hosted the 1st Int’l Conference on the Global Infrastructure

including the following the Arctic subjects:

• Bridge or tunnel over/under the Bering Strait

• Shipping the natural gas resources from the Arctic Sea area

• Road across and around the North Pole by making use of highly sophisticated freezing, sub-zero technology

The Global Infrastructure Fund Research Foundation Japan has been promoting global scale infrastructures for sus-

tainable development, growth and peace since the middle of 1970s, making use of "peace dividend" and "conversion" of

military technology for civil use in the form of massive "resource transfer" to the developing parts of the world. Multi-

national and global scale infrastructure projects totaling $10 Billion for sustainable growth in the following areas:

• Environmental improvement and preservation

•Transportation

• Energy and Natural Resources

• Habitat

Under the transportation category, GIF Japan is promoting projects such as the new Silk Road and the Northern Sea

Route. GIF Japan expects Arctic maritime transportation will make the development of natural gas feasible in its use of

nuclear-submarine type tankers. Recently, Russian organizations proposed transportation of heavy machinery manufac-

tured in a naval shipyard facing the Arctic Sea through the Bering Strait to a project site of the ITER nuclear fusion

machine, which is expected to be built in Japan.



28-30 September 2004

A-17

APPENDIX D: SHIPPING DATA FOR THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE

Appendix D: Shipping Data for the Northern Sea Route

Year Traffic Year Traffic

1933 . . . . . . . .130 1969 . . . . . 2621

1934 . . . . . . . .134 1970 . . . . . 2980

1935 . . . . . . . .176 1971 . . . . . 3032

1936 . . . . . . . .201 1972 . . . . . 3279

1937 . . . . . . . .187 1973 . . . . . 3599

1938 . . . . . . . .194 1974 . . . . . 3969

1939 . . . . . . . .237 1975 . . . . . 4075

1940 . . . . . . . .350 1976 . . . . . 4349

1941 . . . . .(WWII) 165 1977 . . . . . 4553

1942 . . . .(WWII) 177 1978 . . . . . 4789

1943 . . . .(WWII) 289 1979 . . . . . 4792

1944 . . . .(WWII) 376 1980 . . . . . 4952

1945 . . . .(WWII) 444 1981 . . . . . 5005

1946 . . . . . . . .412 1982 . . . . . 5110

1947 . . . . . . . .316 1983 . . . . . 5445

1948 . . . . . . . .318 1984 . . . . . 5835

1949 . . . . . . . .362 1985 . . . . . 6181

1950 . . . . . . . .380 1986 . . . . . 6455

1951 . . . . . . . .434 1987 . . . 6579 (max)

1952 . . . . . . . .389 1988 . . . . . 6295

1953 . . . . . . . .506 1989 . . . . . 5823

1954 . . . . . . . .612 1990 . . . . . 5510

1955 . . . . . . . .677 1991 . . . . . 4804

1956 . . . . . . . .723 1992 . . . . . 3909

1957 . . . . . . . .787 1993 . . . . . 3016

1958 . . . . . . . .821 1994 . . . . . 2300

1959 . . . . . . . .888 1995 . . . . . 2362

1960 . . . . . . . .963 1996 . . . . . 1642

1961 . . . . . . .1013 1997 . . . . . 1945

1962 . . . . . . .1164 1998 . . . . . 1458

1963 . . . . . . .1264 1999 . . . . . 1580

1964 . . . . . . .1399 2000 . . . . . 1587

1965 . . . . . . .1455 2001 . . . . . 1800

1966 . . . . . . .1778 2002 . . . . . 1600

1967 . . . . . . .1934 2003 . . . . . 1700

1968 . . . . . . .2179

I. Annual Traffic on the Northern Sea Route

1933 - 2003 (thousand tonnes)

Total Amount

Year of Cargo # Vessels # Voyages

1985 6181 296 1115

1986 6455 312 1224

1987 6579 331 1306

1988 6295 296 1016

1989 5823 273 928

1990 5510 252 886

1991 4804 243 811

1992 3909 206 606

1993 3016 117 463

1994 2300 153 315

1995 2362 134 309

1996 1642 75 234

1997 1945 70 220

1998 1458 51 152

1999 1580 49 155

2000 1587 52 169

2001 1800 60 194

2002 1600 47 170

2003 1700 47 160

II. Main Characteristics of Arctic Shipping

During the Period 1985-2003

Source: Vladimir Mikhailichenko, Noncommercial Partnership of the

Coordination of the Northern Sea Route Usages, Russia

During the time of the most intensive navigation, certain vessels

conducted up to five voyages within one navigation period.

Source: Vladimir Mikhailichenko, Noncommercial Partnership of the

Coordination of the Northern Sea Route Usages, Russia

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

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APPENDIX D: SHIPPING DATA FOR THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE

Year Total/only 2003 Total/only

Name of Port of Maximum Oil Products Oil Products

Amderma 1986 156/65 0.2/0.1

Dikson 1986 49/7 Approx. 3.0/0

Dudinka 1987 2583/102 1074/0

Igarka 1988 751/ 54/

Khatanga 1987 271/63 113/10

Tiksi 1987 1044/200 38/28

Zeleniy Mys 1986 540/244 6/6

Pevek 1987 839/119 134/49

Mys Schmidta 1987 155/25 31/16

III. Cargo Turnover of Arctic Ports (thousand tonnes)

The Arctic ports, situated along the NSR have a certain potential for cargo handling.

Today however, the situation has drastically changed with a dramatic decrease in cargo amounts.

Source: Vladimir Mikhailichenko, Noncommercial Partnership of the Coordination of the Northern Sea Route Usages, Russia

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

# of Vessels 15 12 22 7 8 3 2

Traffic (1000 tonnes) 210 186 226 10 120 38 30

IV. Annual Transit Traffic: Along the Northern Sea Route (1991 - 1997)

Main types of cargo from Europe to the Far East:

Chemicals (potash salts; fertilizers; potassium chloride);

rolled metal; and timber (Finland, Sweden-Japan)

Main types of cargo from the Far East to Europe:

Processed agricultural goods (rice, soy beans, cake

from China and Thailand); magnesite; and spar.

Source: Vladimir Mikhailichenko, Noncommercial Partnership of the Coordination of the Northern Sea Route Usages, Russia

Report

Period Variant I Variant II

2003 2005 2010 2015 2005 2010 2015

Total along the NSR 1700 2340 4890 7810 3575 8620 11380

• only oil products 465 710 2515 4640 795 4635 5890

V. Preliminary assessment of marine Arctic cargo shipment for the period

up to 2015 as estimated by Russian research institutes (thousand tonnes)

Variant I - pessimistic scenario / Variant II - optimistic scenario

Preliminary Assessment

Source: Vladimir Mikhailichenko, Noncommercial Partnership of the Coordination of the Northern Sea Route Usages, Russia

Appendix D: Shipping Data for the Northern Sea Route continued

28-30 September 2004

A-19

APPENDIX E: MARINE TRAFFIC IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC (JUNE–NOVEMBER 2004)

Appendix E: Marine Traffic in the Canadian Arctic

June – November 2004

Canadian Government Vessels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Commercial Traffic

Canadian Vessel Voyages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62

Foreign Vessel Voyages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 (14 to Churchill)

Foreign Cruise Ships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7

Foreign Research Vessels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2

Foreign Pleasure Craft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Total = 94

Northwest Passage Transits

Canadian Coast Guard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2

Canadian Commercial Vessels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0

Foreign Cargo Vessels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0

Foreign Cruise Ships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

Foreign Pleasure Craft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2

Total = 5

∑ Total Voyages = 107

Note: Listing prepared from responses to the Canadian Coast Guard voluntary reporting system.

Source: Canadian Coast Guard

Route 6: Labrador Sea, Davis Strait, Lancaster Sound,

Prince Regent Inlet, Bellot Strait, Rae Strait, Simpson

Strait, Coronation Gulf, Amundsen Gulf, Beaufort Sea,

Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, Bering Sea.

A variant of route 5 for small vessels if ice from

McClintock Channel has blocked Victoria Strait, Simpson

Strait is only 6.4 m deep, difficult currents run in Bellot

and Simpson Straits.

Route 7: Labrador Sea, Hudson Strait, Foxe Basin, Fury

and Hecla Strait, Bellot Strait, Franklin Strait, Victoria

Strait, Coronation Gulf, Amundsen Gulf, Beaufort Sea,

Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, Bering Sea.

A difficult route owing to severe ice usually at the west of

Fury and Hecla Strait and the currents of Bellot Strait.

Transits of the Northwest Passage (continued)

Until the 2004-05, winter 99 complete transits of the

Northwest Passage (Atlantic to Pacific waters or vice

versa) have been made. Including these are 175 partial

transits recorded through waters of the Canadian Arctic

Archipelago. An analysis of these routes shows:

Complete transits of the Northwest Passage

Route 1 west 1 east 0 total 1

Route 2 west 7 east 3 total 10

Route 3 west 16 east 29 total 45

Route 4 west 6 east 5 total 11

Route 5 west 4 east 10 total 14

Route 6 west 3 east 10 total 13

Route 7 west 0 east 2 total 2

All Routes west 37 east 62 total 99

Partial transits through the Canadian Arctic Archipelagos

Route 1 west 2 east 1 total 3

Route 2 west 10 east 6 total 16

Route 3 west 50 east 58 total 108

Route 4 west 6 east 6 total 12

Route 5 west 5 east 12 total 17

Route 6 west 3 east 10 total 13

Route 7 west 1 east 2 total 3

All Routes west 77 east 98 total 175

Source: Robert Headland,

Scott Polar Research Institute, United Kingdom

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

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APPENDIX F: TRANSITS OF THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE

Appendix F: Transits of the Northwest Passage

Seven routes have been used for transits of the

Northwest Passage between the Atlantic Ocean (Labrador

Sea) and Pacific Ocean (Bering Sea) or in the opposite

direction. Several minor variations have also been used

(for example through Pond Inlet and Navy Board Inlet,

Jones Sound, etc). These routes are:

Route 1: Labrador Sea, Davis Strait, Lancaster Sound,

Barrow Strait, Viscount Melville Sound, McClure Strait,

Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, Bering Sea.

The shortest and deepest, but most difficult way owing to

the severe ice of McClure Strait; the route could be used

by submarines because of its depth.

Route 2: Labrador Sea, Davis Strait, Lancaster Sound,

Barrow Strait, Viscount Melville Sound, Prince of Wales

Strait, Amundsen Gulf, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, Bering

Strait, Bering Sea.

An easier variant of route 1 which may avoid severe ice in

McClure Strait; suitable for deep draft vessels.

Route 3: Labrador Sea, Davis Strait, Lancaster Sound,

Barrow Strait, Peel Sound, Franklin Strait, Victoria Strait,

Coronation Gulf, Amundsen Gulf, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi

Sea, Bering Strait, Bering Sea.

This is route used by most vessels of draft less than 10 m.

Route 4: Labrador Sea, Davis Strait, Lancaster Sound,

Barrow Strait, Peel Sound, Rae Strait, Simpson Strait,

Coronation Gulf, Amundsen Gulf, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi

Sea, Bering Strait, Bering Sea.

A variant of route 3 for small vessels if ice from

McClintock Channel has blocked Victoria Strait; Simpson

Strait is only 6.4 m deep and has difficult currents.

Route 5: Labrador Sea, Davis Strait, Lancaster Sound,

Prince Regent Inlet, Bellot Strait, Franklin Strait, Victoria

Strait, Coronation Gulf, Amundsen Gulf, Beaufort Sea,

Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, Bering Sea.

This route is dependent on ice conditions in Bellot Strait

which has difficult currents; mainly used by eastbound

vessels.

28-30 September 2004

A-21

APPENDIX F: TRANSITS OF THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE

The following 99 voyages, by 67 vessels, carrying 17

different flags, have made complete transits of the

Northwest Passage to September 2004. These transits

proceed to or from the Atlantic Ocean (Labrador Sea) in or

out of the eastern approaches of the Canadian Arctic

archipelago (Lancaster Sound or Foxe Basin), then the

western approaches (McClure Strait or Amundsen Gulf),

across the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea of the Arctic

Ocean, from or to the Pacific Ocean (Bering Sea). The

seven routes which have been used are indicated, with any

significant variations listed. Some voyages are discontin-

uous because the complement left the vessel during a win-

ter. Details of submarine transits are not included because

only two of them (USS Seadragon in 1960 and USS Skate

in 1962) have been reported and they do not navigate

through ice.

The sources for these data include a compilation by

Thomas Pullen and Charles Swithinbank published in

1991 (Cambridge:

Polar Record

, 27 [163]; 365-367),

subsequent information from Brian McDonald (Canadian

Coast Guard) who maintained and expanded the compila-

tion (completing it for a Centenary Edition in 2003),

details provided by Captains Patrick Toomey (CCG) and

Lawson Brigham (USCG), some personal observations

acquired during voyages aboard

Kapitan Khlebnikov

and

Kapitan Dranitsyn

, and many published works.

Transits of the Northwest Passage

Year Vessel Registry Master Route

1 1903-06

Gjøa

(21 m auxiliary sloop) Norway Roald E. G. Amundsen West 4

Wintered twice in Gjøa Haven and once off King Point

2 1940-42

St Roch

Canada

Henry Asbjørn Larsen

East 6

(29.7 m RCMP aux. schooner) Wintered at Walker Bay and Pasley Bay, traversed Pond Inlet

3 1944

St Roch

(RCMP auxiliary schooner) Canada

Henry Asbjørn Larsen

West 2

Return voyage, first transit in one season, traversed Pond Inlet

4 1954 HMCS

Labrador

(icebreaker) Canada

Owen Connor S. Robertson West 2

First continuous circumnavigation of North America

5 1957 USCGC

Storis

(icebreaker) United States

Harold L. Wood East 6

6 1957 USCGC

Bramble

(buoy tender) United States

H. H. Carter East 6

7 1957 USCGC

Spar

(buoy tender) United States

C. V. Crewing East 6

USCGC

Storis

escorted convoy with

Bramble

and

Spar

8 1967 CCGS

John A. McDonald

Canada

Paul M. Fournier West 3

Dispatched to assist USCGC

Northwind

beset 900 km N off Point Barrow

with damaged propeller, circumnavigated North America

9 1969 USCGC

Staten Island

(icebreaker) United States

Eugene F. Walsh East 3

Escorted oil tanker

Manhattan

on return voyage from Point Barrow

10 1970 CSS

Baffin

(research icebreaker) Canada

P. Brick East 2

11 1970 CSS

Hudson

(research icebreaker) Canada

David W. Butler East 2

First circumnavigation of the Americas

12 1975

Pandora II

(hydrographic research vessel) Canada

R. Dickinson East 7

13 1975

Theta

(research vessel) Canada

K. Maro East 7

Traveled in company

14 1975 CSS

Skidgate

(buoy tender) Canada

Peter Kallis East 6

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

A-22

APPENDIX F: TRANSITS OF THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE

15 1976 CCGS

J. E. Bernier

(icebreaker) Canada

Paul Pelland East 3

16 1977

Williwaw

(13 m sloop) Netherlands Willy de Roos West 4

Single-handed after Gjøa Haven, continued to circumnavigate the Americas

17 1978 CCGS

Pierre Radisson

(icebreaker) Canada

Patrick M. R. Toomey East 2

18 1976-79

J. E. Bernier II

(10 m ketch) Canada

Réal Bouvier West 4

Wintered in Holsteinburg, Resolute, and Tuktoyaktuk

19 1979

Canmar Kigoriak

(icebreaker) Canada

C. Cunningham West 2

20 1979 CCGS

Louis S. St Laurent

(icebreaker) Canada

George Burdock West 2

Circumnavigated North America

21 1980 CCGS

J. E. Bernier

(icebreaker) Canada

E. Chasse East 4

22 1980

Pandora II

Canada

R. A. Jones East 4

(hydrographic survey vessel)

23 1981 CSS

Hudson

(research icebreaker) Canada

F. Mauger East 3

24 1979-82

Mermaid

(15 sloop) Japan Kenichi Horie West 6

First single-handed transit, wintered in Resolute and Tuktoyaktuk

25 1983

Arctic Shiko

(tug) Canada

S. Dool East 3

26 1983

Polar Circle

(research vessel) Canada

J. A. Strand East 4

27 1983-88

Belvedere

(18 m yacht) United States

John Bockstoce East 6

Reached Tuktoyaktuk 1983, conducted whaling research to 1987,

completed transit in 1988, traversed Pond Inlet

28 1983-90

Ikaluk

(icebreaker) Canada

R. Cormier

East 3

Reached Beaufort Sea in 1983, where worked to 1990 when completed transit

29 1984

Lindblad Explorer

Sweden Hasse Nilsson West 4

(ice strengthened ship) First passenger

transit

30 1982-85

Vagabond II1

(23·1 m yacht) France

W. Jacobsen

West 6

Wintered in Arctic Bay, Gjøa Haven, and Tuktoyaktut, eastbound voyage

made in 1986-88

31 1985 USCGC

Polar Sea

(icebreaker) United States

John T. Howell West 2

Accompanied by CCGS

John A. McDonald

for part of voyage

32 1985

World Discoverer

Singapore Heinz Aye1 East 4

(ice-strengthened ship) Carried passengers

, traversed Pond Inlet

33 1976-88

Canmar Explorer II

(drilling ship) Canada

Ronald Colby West 3

Reached Beaufort Sea for oil drilling program from 1976 until completed

transit

34 1986-88

Vagabond II

(23.1 m yacht) France

W. Jacobsen

East 6

Wintered twice in Gjøa Haven, westbound voyage made in 1982-85

35 1986-89

Mabel E. Holland

(12.8 m lifeboat) Britain

David Scott Cowper West 6

Single-handed voyage, discontinuous transit, wintered at Fort Ross twice,

and at Inuvik

36 1988 CCGS

Henry A. Larsen

(icebreaker) Canada

Stephen Gomes East 3

37 1988

Society Explorer

Bahamas

Heinz Aye

East 3

(ice-strengthened ship) Carried passengers

, traversed Pond Inlet [formerly

Lindblad Explorer

]

38 1988 CCGS

Martha L. Black

(icebreaker) Canada

Robert Mellis East 3

Year Vessel Registry Master Route

28-30 September 2004

A-23

APPENDIX F: TRANSITS OF THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE

39 1988 USCGC

Polar Star

(icebreaker) United States

Paul A. Taylor East 3

Accompanied by CCGS

Sir John Franklin

to Demarcation Point

40 1988-89

Northanger

(15 m ketch) Britain

Richard Thomas West 4

Wintered in Inuvik

41 1989 USCGC

Polar Star

(icebreaker) United States

Robert Hammond West 3

Accompanied by CCGS

Sir John Franklin

to Demarcation Point

42 1990 USCGC

Polar Sea

(icebreaker) United States

Joseph J. McCleland West 3

Accompanied by CCGS

Pierre Radisson

to Demarcation Point

43 1990

Terry Fox

(icebreaker) Canada

P. Kimmerley East 3

44 1991

Canmar Tugger

(tug) Canada

L. Lorengeek East 3

45 1992

Frontier Spirit

Bahamas

Heinz Aye

West 3

(ice-strengthened ship) Carried passengers

, traversed Pond Inlet

46 1992

Ikaluk

(icebreaker) Canada

R. Cormier

West 3

47 1992

Kapitan Khlebnikov

(icebreaker) Russia1 Piotr Golikov

East 3

Carried passengers

48 1993

Kapitan Khlebnikov

(icebreaker) Russia

Piotr Golikov

East 3

Carried passengers

49 1993

Frontier Spirit

Bahamas

Heinz Aye

West 3

(ice-strengthened ship) Carried passengers

50 1993

Dagmar Aaen

(27 m yacht) Germany Arved Fuchs West 5

51 1994

Kapitan Khlebnikov

(icebreaker) Russia

Piotr Golikov

East 3

52 1994

Kapitan Khlebnikov

(icebreaker) Russia

Piotr Golikov

West 2

Return voyage, carried passengers

8 & 9

53 1994

Hanseatic

(ice-strengthened ship) Bahamas

Hartwig van Harling

West 3

Carried passengers

54 1994

Itasca

(converted tug) Britain

Allan Jouning East 4

55 1995

Kapitan Khlebnikov

(icebreaker) Russia

Viktor Vasiliev

East 5

Carried passengers

56 1995 CCGS

Arctic Ivik

(icebreaker) Canada

Norman Thomas East 5

57 1995 CCGS

Arctic Ivik

(icebreaker) Canada

Robert Mellis West 5

Return voyage to and from Kap York

58 1995

Canmar Ikaluk

(icebreaker) Canada

D. Connolly East 3

[formerly Ikaluk]

59 1995

Dove III

(8.2 m yacht) Canada

Winston Bushnell East 3

The smallest vessel to have completed the transit

60 1995

Canmar Miscaroo

(icebreaker) Canada

D. W. Harris East 3

61 1995

Hrvatska Cigra

Croatia Mladan Sutej West 5

[Croatian Tern] (19.8 m yacht)

62 1996

Kapitan Dranitsyn

(icebreaker) Russia

Oleg Agafonov East 5

Carried passengers

Year Vessel Registry Master Route

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

A-24

APPENDIX F: TRANSITS OF THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE

63 1996 CCGS

Sir Wilfrid Laurier

Canada

Norman Thomas East 5

(icebreaker) Escorted by CCGS

Louis S. St Laurent

for part of voyage, traversed

Pond Inlet

64 1996

Hanseatic

(ice-strengthened ship) Bahamas

Hartwig van Harling

West 3

Carried passengers

until grounded in Simpson Strait, escorted by

CCGS

Henry A. Larsen

to Victoria Strait, traversed Pond Inlet

65 1996

Canmar Supplier II

(cargo vessel) Canada

P. Dunderdale East 3

66 1996

Arctic Circle

(tug) Canada

J. McCormick East 3

67 1997

Hanseatic

(ice-strengthened ship) Bahamas

Heinz Aye

West 3

Carried passengers

, escorted to Victoria Strait by CCGS

Henry A.

Larsen

, traversed Pond Inlet

68 1997

Kapitan Khlebnikov

(icebreaker) Russia

Viktor Vasiliev

East 3

Carried passengers

69 1997

Alex Gordon

(tug) Canada

Paul Misata East 5

Escorted by CCGS

Sir Wilfred Laurier

to Franklin Strait and then CCGS

Pierre Radisson

70 1997

Supplier

(tug) Bahamas

Allan Guenter East 5

Escorted by CCGS

Terry Fox

to Victoria Strait

71 1998

Kapitan Khlebnikov

(icebreaker) Russia

Piotr Golikov

East 3

Carried passengers

72 1998

Hanseatic

(ice-strengthened ship) Bahamas

Heinz Aye

East 3

Carried passengers

, escorted to Victoria Strait by CCGS

Sir John

Franklin

, traversed Pond Inlet

73 1999

Admiral Makarov

Russia

Vadim Akholodenko East 3

(icebreaker, dock in tow)

74 1999

Irbis

(tug, dock in tow) Russia

Aleksandr Aleksenko East 3

Travelled in convoy each towing a component of a steel floating dock,

Korea to Carribean

75 1999

Kapitan Dranitsyn

(icebreaker) Russia

Viktor Terekhov

West 3

Carried passengers

, circumnavigated the Arctic

76 2000 USCGC

Healy

(icebreaker) United States

Jeffery M. Garrett West 3

77 2000

Hanseatic

(ice-strengthened ship) Bahamas

Thilo Natke West 3

Carried passengers

, traversed Pond Inlet

78 2000

Kapitan Dranitsyn

(icebreaker) Russia

Viktor Terekhov

West 3

Carried passengers

, circumnavigated the Arctic

79 2000

Nadon [St Roch II]

Canada

Kenneth Burton East 6

(17.7 m RCMP catamaran) Voyage to commemorate St Roch 1940-42 transit

80 2000

Simon Fraser

Canada

Robert Mellis East 6

(icebreaker, formerly CCGS) Escorted Nadon

81 2000

Evohe

(25 m yacht) New Zealand Stephen Kafka East 6

82 2001

Kapitan Khlebnikov

(icebreaker) Russia

Viktor Vasiliev

East 3

83 2001

Kapitan Khlebnikov

(icebreaker) Russia

Viktor Vasiliev

West 1

Return voyage, carried passengers

21 & 22

84 2001

Turmoil

(46 m yacht) Cayman Islands Philip Walsh West 4

Year Vessel Registry Master Route

Prospects for completion after 2004

Year Vessel Registry Master Route

28-30 September 2004

A-25

APPENDIX F: TRANSITS OF THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE

85 2001

Northabout

(14.9m yacht) Ireland (Eira) Patick Barry West 3

86 2001-02

Le Nuage

(12.8 m yacht) France

Michèle Demai East 3

Complement of mother and daughter, wintered in Cambridge Bay

87 2002

Kapitan Khlebnikov

(icebreaker) Russia

Piotr Golikov

East 3

Carried passengers

88 2002

Sedna IV

(51 m yacht) Canada

Stéphan Guy West 5

89 2002

Apostol Andrey

(16.2 m yacht) Russia

Nikolay Litau East 5

Assisted by CCGS

Louis S. St Laurent

through Prince Regent Inlet, voyage

previously made a transit of Northeast Passage

90 2002

Arctic Kalvik

(icebreaker tug) Barbados Sanjeev Kumar East 3

91 2002

Hanseatic

(ice-strengthened ship) Bahamas

Thilo Natke West 3

Carried passengers

, traversed Pond Inlet

92 2003

Kapitan Khlebnikov

(icebreaker) Russia

Viktor Vasiliev

East 5

93 2003

Bremen

(ice-strengthened ship) Bahamas

Daniel Fogner West 3

Carried passengers

25 & 26

Bremen

[formerly

Frontier Spirit

] traversed

Pond Inlet

94 2003

Norwegian Blue

(12.9 m yacht) Britain

Andrew Wood East 5

95 2003

Vagabond II

(23.1 m yacht) France

Eric Brossier East 5

Both traversed Pond Inlet

96 2003

USCGC Healy

(icebreaker) United States

Daniel Oliver West 3

97 2003-04

Polar Bound

(14.6 m motorboat) Britain

David Scott Cowper

West 5

Wintered in Cambridge Bay, assisted by CCGS

Louis S. St Laurent

for part

of voyage, traversed Pond Inlet

98 2003-04

Dagmar Aaen

(27 m yacht) Germany

Arved Fuchs

West 5

Wintered in Cambridge Bay, traversed Pond Inlet, previously made a

transit of the Northeast Passage

99 2004

Kapitan Khlebnikov

(icebreaker) Russia

Pavel Ankudinov East 5

Carried passengers

2003-0?

Ocean Search

(12.5 m yacht) France Olivier Pitras East

2003-0?

Minke I

(12.8 m yacht) Canada Peter Brook East

Both vessels wintered in Cambridge Bay twice

2003-0?

Jotun Arctic

(13.4 m yacht) Norway Knut Espen Solberg West

Wintered in Godhavn and Arctic Bay, voyage to commemorate

Gjøa

1903-06 transit

2004-0?

Fine Tolerance

(13.7 m yacht) Australia Philip Hogg East

Wintered in Cambridge Bay

Source: Robert Headland, Scott Polar Research Institute, United Kingdom

Year Vessel Registry Master Route

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

A-26

APPENDIX G: ICEBREAKERS THAT HAVE REACHED THE NORTH POLE

Appendix G: Icebreakers that have Reached the North Pole

Name Master Date arrived Flag Power

Arktika

Yuriy Kuchiyev 17 August 1977 Soviet Union

Nuclear

Sibir'

Zigfrid Vibakh 25 May 1987 Soviet Union

Nuclear

Rossiya

Anatoly Lamehov 8 August 1990 Soviet Union

Nuclear

Sovetskiy Soyuz

Anatoly Gorshkovskiy

4 August 1991 Soviet Union

Nuclear

Oden

Anders Backman

7 September 1991 Sweden

Diesel

Polarstern

Ernst-Peter Greve 7 September 1991 Germany

Diesel

Sovetskiy Soyuz

Anatoly Gorshkovskiy

13 July 1992 Russia

Nuclear

Sovetskiy Soyuz

Anatoly Gorshkovskiy

23 August 1992 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Andrey Smirnov

21 July 1993 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Andrey Smirnov

8 August 1993 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Andrey Smirnov

30 August 1993 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Andrey Smirnov

21 July 1994 Russia

Nuclear

Kapitan Dranitsyn

Viktor Terekhov

21 July 1994 Russia

Diesel

Yamal

Andrey Smirnov

5 August 1994 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Andrey Smirnov

21 August 1994 Russia

Nuclear

Louis S. St Laurent

Philip Grandy 22 August 1994 Canada Diesel

Polar Sea

Lawson Brigham 22 August 1994 United States

Diesel/Gas Turbine

Yamal

Andrey Smirnov

12 July 1995 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Andrey Smirnov

28 July 1995 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Andrey Smirnov

12 July 1996 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Andrey Smirnov

27 July 1996 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Andrey Smirnov

14 August 1996 Russia

Nuclear

Oden

Anders Backman

10 September 1996 Sweden

Diesel

Sovetskiy Soyuz

Stanislav Shmidt

12 July 1997 Russia

Nuclear

Sovetskiy Soyuz

Stanislav Shmidt

25 July 1997 Russia

Nuclear

Sovetskiy Soyuz

Yevgeniy Bannikov

10 July 1998 Russia

Nuclear

Sovetskiy Soyuz

Yevgeniy Bannikov

23 July 1998 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Stanislav Rumantsev

25 July 1999 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

29 July 2000 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal1

Aleksandr Lembrik

11 August 2000 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

12 July 2001 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

24 July 2001 Russia

Nuclear

Oden

Mats Johansen 31 July 2001 Sweden

Diesel

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

5 August 2001 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

23 August 2001 Russia

Nuclear

Healy

David Vizneski 6 September 2001 United States

Diesel

Polarstern

Jurgen Keil 6 September 2001 Germany

Diesel

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

11 July 2002 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

21 July 2002 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

12 August 2002 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

25 August 2002 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal2

Stanislav Rumantsev

25 July 2003 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Stanislav Rumantsev

10 August 2003 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Stanislav Rumantsev

24 August 2003 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

8 July 2004 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

21 July 2004 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

8 August 2004 Russia

Nuclear

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

28 August 2004 Russia

Nuclear

Sovetskiy Soyuz

Stanislav Shmidt

7 September 2004 Russia

Nuclear

Oden

Tomas Årnellon 7 September 2004 Sweden

Diesel

Vidar Viking

Jörgen Haave 7 September 2004 Norway Diesel

Yamal

Aleksandr Lembrik

11 September 2004 Russia

Nuclear

Source: Robert Headland, Scott Polar Research Institute, United Kingdom

28-30 September 2004

A-27

APPENDIX H: ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT

Appendix H: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) released in November 2004 (following the Cambridge workshop)

was called for by the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee. ACIA found that the Arctic is

extremely vulnerable to observed and projected climate change and its impacts. The Arctic is now experiencing

some of the most rapid and severe climate change on earth. During the 21st Century, climate change is expected

to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes, many of which have already

begun. Changes in Arctic climate will also affect the rest of the planet through increased global warming and

rising sea levels.

ACIA documented that declining Arctic sea ice is a key climate change indicator. During the past five decades

the observed extent of Arctic sea ice has declined in all seasons, with the most prominent retreat in summer. Each

of the five Global Climate Models (GCMs) used in ACIA project a continuous decline in Arctic sea ice coverage

throughout the 21st Century. One of the models projects an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer by 2050, a future

scenario of great significance for Arctic marine shipping since multi-year ice would essentially disappear in the

Arctic Ocean (all the next winter’s sea ice would be first-year). GCM projections to 2100 suggest that Arctic sea ice

in summer will retreat further and further away from most Arctic coasts, potentially increasing marine access and

extending the season of navigation in nearly all Arctic regional seas.

One limitation of the GCMs is that they are not useful at determining the state of sea ice in the Northwest Passage

region. Their resolution is much too coarse to be applied to the narrow straits and sounds of the Canadian Arctic

Archipelago. In ACIA the only reliable observed data comes from the Canadian Ice Service and this information,

archived since the late 1960s, shows a mean negative trend of sea ice coverage in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

but very high inter-annual variability. The ACIA models, however, could be applied to the more open coastal seas of

the Russian Arctic. ACIA sea ice projections for Russia’s Northern Sea Route indicate an increasing length of the

navigation season throughout the 21st century.

In summary, ACIA confirms that the observed retreat of Arctic sea ice is a real phenomenon. The GCM projections

to 2100 show extensive open water areas in summer around the Arctic Basin. Thus, it is highly plausible there will

be increasing regional marine access in all the Arctic coast seas. However, the projections show only a modest

decrease in winter Arctic sea ice coverage; there will always be an ice-covered Arctic Ocean in winter although the

ice may be thinner and may contain less multiyear ice. The very high, inter-annual variability of observed sea ice in

the Northwest Passage and non-applicability of the GCMs to the region, prevent an adequate assessment of this

complex region. Although the ACIA projections indicate an increasing length of the navigation season for the

Northern Sea Route, detailed quantification of this changing marine access is testing the limitations of today’s

GCMs. There is a definite need for improved Arctic regional models to adequately assess future changes in sea ice

and their considerable implications for the expanded marine uses of the Arctic Ocean. Go to www.acia.uaf.edu for

more information.

Observed Arctic Ice Extent

March

Projected Ice Extent

(5-model median)

September

2010-20302040-2060

2070-2090

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

A-28

APPENDIX I: ARCTIC COUNCIL’S ARCTIC MARINE STRATEGIC PLAN

Appendix I: Arctic Council’s Arctic Marine Strategic Plan

The Arctic Council’s Arctic Marine Strategic Plan is designed to foster a healthy and productive Arctic Ocean and

coasts that support environmental, economic and socio-cultural values for current and future generations.

The Strategic Plan addresses emerging issues, such as oil and gas and shipping activities, employing a risk

assessment approach. It takes into account the special needs and requirements of indigenous communities while

maintaining an objective of sustainable development of the Arctic marine environment.

The Plan aims to improve how the Arctic coastal and marine environment is managed, particularly given the

accelerated changes occurring in the North due to climate change and increasing economic activity. The Plan

reflects the four goals the Arctic Council has for the marine environment:

• Reduce and prevent pollution in the Arctic marine environment

• Conserve Arctic marine biodiversity and ecosystem functions

•Promote the health and prosperity of all Arctic inhabitants

• Advance sustainable Arctic marine resource use.

The Plan relies on the existing structures and mechanisms of the Arctic Council and other bodies for its imple-

mentation. Some examples of key strategic actions include:

• Conduct a comprehensive assessment of Arctic marine shipping at current and projected levels.

• Improve capabilities for responding to marine emergency situations, including those resulting from climate

variability.

•Promote World Summit on Sustainable Development actions related to the marine and coastal environment,

including the application of an ecosystem approach and establishment of marine protected areas, including

representative networks.

• Identify elements that can serve as key environmental and socio-economic indications of the state of the

Arctic marine ecosystems and thus guide effective decision-making.

• Foster partnerships among governments, indigenous peoples organizations, communities, industry, international

bodies, NGOs and academia to advance the goals of this Plan, employing such mechanisms as partnership

conferences and workshops.

•Promote oceans education through appropriate instructions and organizations such as the University of the

Arctic; encouraging training related to best operating practices.

•Promote a marine and coastal component in the International Polar Year program.

The Arctic Marine Strategic Plan was approved by the Arctic ministers in November 2004.

28-30 September 2004

A-29

APPENDIX J: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE

Appendix J: A Vision for the Arctic

By the Honorable Walter J. Hickel, Former U.S. Secretary of Interior, Twice Governor, State of Alaska

30 September 2004, The Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

I would like to begin by thanking all of you for attending this historic gathering. And

I would like to specifically thank my Russian friends. I believe this meeting at Scott Polar

is the beginning of something great and new in the world. The day of the Arctic has come.

To many who live in the temperate climates "down there, looking up," the high

latitudes are remote, hostile and as mysterious as the moon. We look foreign and strange.

Most people avoid and even fear our part of the world. But those of us who live in the

Arctic and sub-Arctic see the world differently. We don’t look up. We don’t look down.

We look around. To us, the Arctic is home. The Arctic is heritage. The Arctic is our here-

and-now and our hereafter. Many in generations past moved north to make a killing and

leave. But a new generation is on the scene with a new vision. This new generation lives

in and loves the North because we believe it can be a model for a better world.

In October 1988 the world watched helplessly as two Gray Whales off the northern

coast of Alaska fought for survival. The ice pack had trapped them miles from freedom.

Only a small hole in the ice, kept open by Eskimo whalers, allowed them to breathe. The

whalers and the best engineers in Alaska worked for weeks, but they couldn’t figure out how to save the whales. Then, an act of mercy

took place --- an act that represented the true spirit of the North. A Russian icebreaker arrived, unannounced.

Without hesitation, it plowed a highway through the thick ice and freed the whales. No other nation had such technology . . . nor did

some of us even know it existed. There was no fanfare from the Russians. The captain of the icebreaker held no press conference and

attended no champagne receptions. He just freed the whales and sailed home. And the man responsible is here today! Captain

Mikhailichenko. It was a symbol of things to come.

Those nations closest to the pole – and they are all represented here: Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, Iceland and the U.S. – have a

unique opportunity. The development of the Arctic can become one more arena for international jealousy and conflict. Or it can become

an example of how the nations of this globe are meant to live and work together.

This vision came into focus in 1991 just two years after the Ice Curtain melted that had divided the Russian Far East from Alaska.

That year the governors of 14 regional governments met in Anchorage and launched the Northern Forum. We demonstrated the reality

that remains today. We hold no animosities. We dare to communicate. We dare to make friends. We dare to learn from each other and

help each other. We dare to think beyond the stereotypes that pit environment versus development and people versus nature.

Drawing on the wisdom of our past, we understand that the total environment stands on three legs – people, people’s needs and

nature. If we ignore even one leg, the system will lose its balance and crash. We cannot ignore or abuse nature. We cannot ignore or abuse

people. As our indigenous ancestors learned long ago, in a cold, harsh environment, you have to care about others. You waste nothing.

You share to survive. You care for the total. Every hunter’s prize is a gift, not just for that hunter, but for his family and village.

Throughout the world, this sense of shared responsibility must be mobilized, as we address the needs of the environment and devel-

opment. Pollution knows no borders. All rives eventually run into a common sea. All living things breathe the common air. We must share

our concern and our knowledge. Fundamentally it is a collective world, but one in which we live so privately.

Without concern for other people, for their needs and wants, activities for strictly private gain become destructive, not only to others but

eventually to oneself. In the Far North, we observe that nothing changes the environment as much as nature. Man is not always the

culprit . . . as some would have us believe. We see it in our volcanoes, our earthquakes, and our rivers, most of which don’t run blue.

They run rich with the colors of a changing earth. In the North, we do not fear change.

We understand that when civilizations are not allowed to grow, the harvest is revolution. Without pointing fingers, it is obvious that

the world is involved in such a struggle today.

What can people of goodwill do?

Arctic Marine Transport Workshop

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APPENDIX J: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE

There is no simple answer. But we in the North are providing a counter-vision for the world. In St. Petersburg last year, President

Olafur Grimsson of Iceland described that vision by calling it "The New North." And he isn’t the only national leader to see the picture.

On April 28 of this year, President Vladimir Putin traveled to the Russian Arctic and met with northern Russian leaders. At the end of

that session, Putin gave a speech, so important that it should have gone ‘round the world. He called for "improvement in the living

standard of the millions of people" who live in the Far North. He spoke of the preservation of the cultures of our Native peoples . . .

through the renewal of the economic and legal foundation of traditional forms of land ownership. What we in Alaska call "the commons"

– the lands owned in common that are meant to benefit the total.

Today’s northerners are determined to improve our quality of life. This we can do, because Nature blessed us with great natural

riches. But there is no wealth without production. Someone has to catch a fish, dig a hole, cut a tree. But we of the North must and will

insist that production is environmentally responsible.

And it must benefit the residents of our resource-rich lands . . . not just local Insiders, Outside interests, and international corporations.

Yes, production is the key, and the key to production is infrastructure…infrastructure that moves people, their goods and their ideas.

Four years ago the Institute of the North, the host of this workshop, initiated the Circumpolar Infrastructure Task Force, an ambitious

project that was later endorsed by both the Northern Forum and the Arctic Council. CITF teams are evaluating links throughout the Arctic

for telecommunications, aviation, and marine transportation. They are studying where these links are needed and how to make them

sustainable.

The Cold War forced northern transportation infrastructure to run North-South. Now is the time to think East-West.

In the realm of telecommunications, many Arctic communities are isolated, preventing bright young people from entering the global

marketplace.

But we have a different vision.

Throughout the North, we see a "connected Arctic." We are studying how remote communities can join the flow of ideas that now

encircle the world instantaneously. When it comes to air travel, east-west air routes have been slow in coming.

But we have a different vision.

Air connections are being studied, mapped and explored, along with improved air safety.

But perhaps the most exciting possibility has been the focus of this historic Workshop - - - maritime commerce. Most of the ships that

carry global east-west cargo still sail south and funnel through the Panama and Suez Canals.

But we have a different vision.

The Northern Sea Route, as we have heard at this workshop, has been pioneered by the Russian people over the past 100 years.

This project, alone, can change the world. I call it the water highway to the future. It will dramatically shorten shipping time from the

U.K. and Western Europe to Tokyo and the U.S. West Coast. This pioneering venture, long imagined by visionaries of the past, will

provide more benefits for the North than any other project . . . ever. It will do for the world what the Panama Canal did for the Atlantic

and the Pacific. Think of the time and resources it will save. And the commerce it generates has the potential to improve the quality of life

of those who live along the route. It will open a new frontier in Russia and help bring young people back to the North.

The main obstacle is economic competition. I have discovered over the years that large business interests are slow to change. In the

early 1900s, West Coast shippers fought against the construction of the Panama Canal. They were accustomed to shipping around the

southern tip of South America and wanted it to stay that way. Today there are interests that oppose the Northern Sea Route because they

are accustomed to shipping through the Panama Canal. It’s time to crack through that thinking with action . . . action as bold as that

Russian icebreaker that saved the whales.

It’s tragic irony that in many parts of the world there are millions of hungry and poor people living on rich land. That’s why I often

talk about the Northern Commons.

Alaska’s great success began when we convinced our federal government to share the benefits of our commons with our people. When

we achieve this goal throughout the Arctic and sub-Arctic, there will be no legitimate reason for poverty in the North. And, if we care for

our common lands and resources properly, we will pioneer a way of life that far surpasses both unbridled capitalism and failed communism.

As you know, to build a pioneering country, it takes more than studies and speeches. And it takes more than money. It takes belief.

To build a new world, you have to literally BUILD it. The source of the funding will come from our resources. Many of our regions

are beginning to do just that. Excellent examples in Russia are the Sakha Republic and Khanty-Mansyisk. These two regions are what

I call the "Owner State" in action. The benefits from the resources of these regions can be seen in the architecture of the cities and the

spirit of the people.

28-30 September 2004

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APPENDIX J: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE

I have written a book about this Owner State model. Next week in Moscow, Progress Publishing will release a Russian edition. It is

my testament to the new frontier of our time. And I hope it helps the current generation of leaders and inspires Russia’s scholars and

thinkers. In Alaska, we’ve seen the benefits.

In just a few decades, the Alaska people have risen out of poverty. We have improved our communities. We have created a $27 bil-

lion Permanent Fund. And we have done it within a democratic system, a free enterprise economy, and as champions of the environment.

And yet, unlike the rest of America, Alaska’s development has been accomplished from "the commons." Regions with like problems

should work together - - - not just nations with political ties. This is the way of the North.

As President Putin said in April, "the Russian north is our huge common wealth. It is our common property and will also serve our

grandchildren and our great grandchildren."

In the U.S., Alaska is often called the "Last Frontier." Well, I disagree. Having just celebrated my 85th birthday, I have never believed

more strongly than I do today that there will be frontiers as long as there are humans. Every child born is given new frontiers to explore.

God’s way to test us is to give us our own frontiers. The frontiers are in the heart and in the mind. Yes, the days of pioneering have just

begun. That’s a vision for the Arctic, and it lies within our grasp. There are those who always think about why great ideas won’t work.

And there are those who say "Let’s make them happen."

I feel the "make it happen" spirit here. And that spirit can change the world. Thank you.

The Arctic Marine Transport Workshop of 2004 was held at Scott Polar Research

Institute, Cambridge University, to honor the memory of Dr. Terence E. Armstrong

(1920-1996), noted post World War II Arctic scholar. Terence Armstrong, admired and

respected throughout the polar world, spent his academic career at Scott Polar and many

of the workshop participants were his colleagues. Among his many areas of research,

Arctic marine transport was perhaps closest to his heart. He wrote seminal works on the

Northern Sea Route, sea ice, Russian Arctic development, and geography of the

Circumpolar North. He established many ‘bridges’ with Soviet and Russian scholars

during an era where interaction did not come easily, if at all. He assembled the Institute’s

extensive and unmatched Russian Arctic collection. Together with other northern scholars,

Terence worked tirelessly to enhance the education of Arctic and sub-Arctic indigenous

peoples. Throughout their lives, Terence and his wife, Iris, were generous hosts to legions

of polar scholars who ventured to Cambridge. Terence would have enjoyed and would have

been a touch astonished at the historic gathering of Arctic marine transport experts at

Scott Polar in September 2004.

Guided by his legacy and celebrating his life’s work, we presented this plaque to Scott

Polar Research Institute in honor of Terence Armstrong, one of the leading Arctic scholars

of the 20th Century. We remember him fondly and with great respect.

- Lawson Brigham, Co-chair

Arctic Marine Transport

Workshop Participants

Held at Scott Polar Research Institute

Cambridge University

United Kingdom

28-30 September 2004

Institute of the North

Circumpolar Infrastructure Task Force Secretariat

935 W. Third Ave., Anchorage, Alaska 99501

Office phone: (907) 343-2445 • Fax: (907) 343-2466

www.institutenorth.org

International Arctic Science Committee

The IASC Secretariat, Middelthunsgate 29,

P O Box 5156 Majorstua, N-0302 Oslo, Norway

Phone: +47- 22 95 99 00 • Fax: +47- 22 95 99 01

www.iasc.no

U. S. Arctic Research Commission

4350 N. Fairfax Drive, Suite 510

Arlington, Virginia 22203

Tel: 703.525.0111 • Fax: 703.525.0114

www.arctic.gov

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

Key Finding #6

“Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase

marine transport and access to resources.”